Jonathan Chait: “Boehner does not seem to share his party’s sociopathic embrace of hostage tactics. Boehner resembles William H. Macy’s character in Fargo, who concocts a simple plan to have his wife kidnapped and skim the proceeds, failing to think a step forward about what happens once she’s actually seized by violent criminals. He doesn’t intend for her to be harmed, but also has no ability to control the plan once he’s set it in motion. In the end, Boehner’s Speakership is likely to end up in the wood chipper, anyway.”
What the House GOP is Thinking
Robert Costa explains the latest GOP thinking over at Reddit:
“Most of the conference is well aware of the consequences of default. In fact, over the past few years, the House GOP leadership has actually hosted private meetings for members about what default means and why it shouldn’t happen. But, at the same time, Republicans are very eager to get some kind of 2011-esque concession from the White House and Senate Democrats on the budget, when they were able to pass legislation that led to sequestration. Of course, the political climate then was different, due to the GOP having recently won the House, but the GOP is hoping for a similar outcome this time, and you have leaders like Paul Ryan publicly talking about a larger agreement being possible. I’m still skeptical though, since most Republicans are unwilling, at all, to bend on taxes, and Democrats aren’t exactly scrambling to cut a big deal with Boehner, who they think is in a weakened position.”
“There’s a reason for their optimism, even if it is eventually proven to be unrealistic optimism. They look back at 2011 (think Woodward, Price of Politics) and they were able to get sequestration. They think, if they play their cards right, they can do the same w/ CR and debt limit this month. But the prob is that 2011 was a different political climate than fall 2013; GOP had just won House, Obama was on ropes. Now, instead of being in constant talks w/ WH a la 2011, the GOP civil war is a public spectacle, which hurts their ability to make similar fiscal demands.”
The March of Dumbs
Jon Stewart is having too much fun with the government shutdown.
Only One Side Can Be Blamed
Patrick Reis:
“You can believe that Republicans forced a shutdown by taking the
government hostage to muscle through changes they couldn’t get through
regular order. Or you can blame Democrats for refusing to make any
changes whatsoever to Obamacare in exchange for keeping the government
open. But you can’t blame them both.”
Republicans Dig In Deeper
First Read: “But once you dig in, it becomes harder and harder to get yourself out of the hole. In other words, we THINK we know how this is going to end — with Republicans, due to all the political pressure they’re receiving, mostly capitulating on their demands to link government operations to the president’s health-care law — but it’s going to get worse before it gets better. Why? Because Republicans don’t know how to get out of the hole right now. They can’t surrender without getting something for this shutdown, right?”
Meanwhile, Reid Wilson surveys the editorial pages and finds the “overwhelming number of editorial boards came to the same conclusion: That Republicans — specifically the tea party caucus — are to blame” for the government shutdown.
The Week: How the government shutdown is tearing apart the Republican party.
Americans Think GOP’s Top Priority Is Troublemaking
A new National Journal poll finds a plurality of Americans believes that causing political problems for President Obama is now the GOP’s top priority in Washington.
Key findings: 32% said the GOP’s highest priority was “causing political problems for President Obama.” By contrast, 19% said Democrats’ highest priority was “causing political problems for Republicans in Congress.”
Big Business Takes Sides with Obama
“Having failed to persuade their traditional Republican allies in Congress to avert a government shutdown, business leaders fear bigger problems ahead, and they’re taking sides with a Democratic president whose health care and regulatory agenda they have vigorously opposed,” the AP reports.
President Obama “is embracing the business outreach, eager to employ groups like the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and Wall Street CEOs to portray House Republicans as out of touch even with their long-established corporate and financial patrons.”
A Fiscal Crisis With No Negotiations
“Everything is different this time,” the Washington Post notes.
“A different set of political dynamics has upended the old playbook, and a resolution to this fiscal crisis seems especially remote.” President Obama, Speaker John Boehner and Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid “remain far apart, having occasional phone calls but no substantive negotiations.”
The Fix: “If Day 1 of the government shutdown told us anything, it’s that this situation isn’t going to resolve itself anytime terribly soon… Entrenchment in established positions is the name of the game at the moment. And, you don’t dig in deeper when you are looking for ways to move on.”
Long Shutdown Gives Democrats Leverage on Debt Limit
“Senate Democrats believe the longer the government remains shut down, the more leverage they will wield in the debt-limit debate later this month,” The Hill reports.
“There is growing sentiment among Democrats that the short-term funding resolution and debt-limit increase should be combined. They claim the issues should be merged to take advantage of Republicans, who are pided and off balance trying to fend off blame for the shutdown.”
Said Sen. Dick Durbin: “This is now all together.”
Majority Back Raising the Debt Ceiling
As the government shutdown gets merged with the upcoming fight to raise the debt ceiling, a new CNN poll finds that 56% of Americans said it would be a bad thing if the debt ceiling was not raised, with 38% saying it would be a good thing for the country.
If the debt ceiling isn’t raised, 53% would blame Republicans while 31% would blame President Obama.
Quote of the Day
“It’s getting better for us. The moment where Republicans are least popular is right when the government shuts down. But when the president continues to say he’s unwilling to negotiate with the American people, when Harry Reid says he won’t even take things to conference, I don’t think the American people are going to take that too kindly.”
— Rep. Raúl Labrador (R-ID), quoted by the New York Times.
Boehner-Reid Relationship Unravels
Sen. Harry Reid and Speaker John Boehner “have never been especially close, but their normally functional relationship began to unravel this week, after the House GOP decided to try to undermine a secret deal the two leaders’ offices made over the summer to save congressional staffers from losing their health care benefits,” Roll Call reports.
“Reid and his chief of staff, David Krone, were so angry with the Ohio Republican that they decided to breach accepted protocols between the two offices after Boehner’s Monday decision to add a provision to a stopgap spending bill that would eliminate employer health care contributions for members and staff.”
“Though leaders usually refrain from referring to each other in their partisan rants against the other chamber, Democratic leaders on Monday mentioned Boehner by name 12 times.”
Piecemeal Approach to Test Party Unity
House Republicans are likely to try again “to pass three piecemeal spending bills that would reopen parts of the government, as both parties try to force the other to crack under mounting public pressure to end the two-day-old shutdown,” the New York Times reports.
“The Republicans suffered embarrassing losses on Tuesday night when the three bills — to finance veterans’ programs, national parks and museums, and federally financed services in Washington — failed to get the two-thirds majorities required to pass under fast-track procedures.”
“Aides to the Republican leadership said the bills would be introduced on Wednesday under ordinary rules that require only simple majorities, and they should easily pass. But Democrats are likely to be granted procedural votes of their own, which would be an opportunity to test how many Republicans would defy their leadership and vote to reopen the entire government without crippling President Obama’s health care law — the standoff that shut down the government at 12:01 a.m. on Tuesday.”
Shutdown May Be Tied to Debt Ceiling Hike
“A harsh reality began setting into Capitol Hill on Tuesday: The U.S. government may not reopen until the two parties reach a deal to raise the national debt ceiling, Politico reports.
“Indeed, if the standoff continues to creep toward the Oct. 17 deadline to raise the $16.7 trillion national debt ceiling, the two issues will become intertwined — and potentially intractable. House Republican leaders and top Senate Democrats privately began discussing this increasingly likely possibility Tuesday, but the two sides have yet to engage in any direct negotiations in the acrimonious budget dispute.”
Democrats Reject Piecemeal Funding Strategy
Roll Call: “House Republicans tried to soften the blow — in reality and politically — of a government shutdown Tuesday with bills that would provide funding for veterans, for national parks and for the District of Columbia. But Democrats said no.”
“Republicans tried to pass the three bills under suspension of the rules, in which a two-thirds majority is required. But Democrats, who characterized them as face-saving measures after forcing a government shutdown, refused.”
House GOP Digging In For Long Showdown
Robert Costa: “The same question keeps popping up: Why doesn’t Speaker John Boehner just pass a ‘clean’ continuing resolution to fund the government? It’s a ubiquitous query at the Capitol, and it was asked many times this afternoon as House Republicans left their closed-door conference meeting. But most Republicans, when pressed by reporters, rolled their eyes. They know what Boehner knows: A clean CR has never been an option…”
“Instead, the leadership is digging in for an extended impasse with Senate Democrats. Based on my latest conversations with insiders, their plan isn’t to eventually whip Republicans toward a clean CR and back down after a few days of messaging the shutdown, as some have believed; it’s to keep fighting, and, in the process, preserve the House GOP’s fragile unity — and maybe, if they’re lucky, win a concession from Senate majority leader Harry Reid.”
Washington Post: “At the moment, neither side is feeling a clear imperative to end the shutdown.”
Don’t Expect the Government Shutdown to End Soon
Wall Street Journal: “That was the message Tuesday from Senate Republican leaders and Democratic aides who said there is a growing likelihood that non-essential parts of the federal government remain shuttered for more than two weeks until lawmakers agree on how to increase the debt ceiling.”
“Two top Senate Democratic aides also said they thought the two issues would end up dovetailing together, saying that from their perspective the next move was up to House Republicans. Democrats are unlikely to negotiate with Republicans over a short-term government funding bill, so the delay will continue until House Republicans agree to take up a Senate-passed six-week funding bill.”
GOP pollster David Winston to Greg Sargent: “A long term shutdown is not a tenable solution in the eyes of Americans… All the parties involved had better realize there are repercussions here. The biggest concern people should have is the level of uncertainty this injects as voters think about who they are going to choose in 2014. People should be concerned about what that will look like.”
Republicans Snatch Defeat from Jaws of Victory
Chris Cillizza: “Tuesday should have been a banner day for Congressional Republicans, the day in which sequestration cuts to the federal government were locked in for another few months — a move that would have proved just how committed the GOP was to cutting federal spending and shrinking the debt.”
“Instead, the government is shuttered. Polling shows Republicans are in line to take the lion’s share of the blame. The party is fighting amongst itself about when and whether to make a deal. Party strategists are (semi) openly fretting about the political danger their side is courting with the shutdown.”
Said former Rep. Tom Davis (R-VA): “When is a win not a win? When it belongs to the GOP. These are constant self-inflicted wounds. We don’t need to learn how to be a good loser. We need to learn to be a good winner.”
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