Few Think They’re Better Off Financially Under Biden
A new Financial Times/University of Michigan poll finds just 14% of American voters believe they are better off financially now than when President Biden took office.
Biden’s Job Message Isn’t Working
A new Blueprint/YouGov poll finds that President Biden’s attempt to tout strong jobs numbers is falling completely flat with voters, who care way more about inflation.
Also troubling for Democrats: “Just over half of voters said they had heard that inflation had fallen from 8.3% to 3.2% since 2021, for example. But by a 24-point margin, voters said they did not believe that inflation had fallen that far.”
Rural Voters Continue to Evade Democrats
NBC News: “Over the past two years, inflation has hit rural households harder than the rest of the country. According to researchers at Iowa State University, rural households had to pay an extra $8,120 due to inflation in 2021 and 2022, more than the $7,480 paid by urban households in the same two years.”
“Meanwhile, researchers at Cornell University estimate that 94% of the nation’s job growth since 2000 happened in urban counties.”
Job Growth Slowed Last Month
“The U.S. economy saw job creation decelerate in October, confirming persistent expectations for a slowdown and possibly taking some heat off the Federal Reserve in its fight against inflation,” CNBC reports.
Fed Holds Rates Steady
“The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged at a 22-year high but kept the door open to potentially raising them later to keep slowing inflation,” the Wall Street Journal reports.
“Officials described recent economic activity as strong and highlighted how a run-up in long-term interest rates could weigh on economic activity, according to a statement released after their two-day meeting.”
Why Are Americans Down About the Economy?
Wall Street Journal: “So if the economy is so good, why are Americans so gloomy? Confidence readings are depressed. Some 69% of respondents to a Journal survey in August said the country is headed in the wrong direction. President Biden’s approval ratings are mired around or below 40%, and approval for his handling of the economy is even lower.”
“The most popular explanation for this dichotomy is that good feelings about jobs are more than offset by high inflation. There is a lot of evidence for this, but it is still not an entirely satisfying answer.”
U.S. Consumers Keep Spending
Associated Press: “Economists caution that such vigorous spending isn’t likely to continue in the coming months.”
“Still, the truth is no one knows where things go from here, given the unusual nature of the post-pandemic economy… Spending might cool in the coming months, yet it’s far from clear it will collapse.”
Autoworkers Seek to Organize Nonunion Auto Plants
“After winning major gains in wages and benefits from two of the three Detroit automakers, the United Automobile Workers union is looking beyond the Motor City to car companies operating nonunion factories across the South,” the New York Times reports.
GM and Autoworkers Reach Deal to End Strike
“General Motors became the last of the Detroit automakers to reach a new tentative labor deal with the United Auto Workers union Monday to end a strike that has spanned more than six weeks,” the Wall Street Journal reports.
Mortgage Rates at 8% Make a Brutal Housing Market
Bloomberg: “Over the past two months, rates for 30-year mortgages have hurtled toward 8% by most measures. Affordability pressures are cutting into sales, with purchases of previously owned homes in September dropping to the lowest level since 2010.”
“It’s been a tough slog for house hunters since the start of the pandemic. After lockdowns started to lift, fierce competition fueled bidding wars and massive price increases. Then came rising rates that sidelined potential buyers, while owners also became more reluctant to sell. Inventory plunged, keeping prices elevated.”
Biden’s Bet on Auto Workers Pays Off
“The pieces are lining up for President Joe Biden to lay claim to a victory for his pro-union stance as the second of Detroit’s Big Three car companies reached a tentative agreement with the United Auto Workers, President Shawn Fain confirmed Saturday evening,” Politico reports.
Most Americans Say Expenses Outpace Earnings
AP-NORC poll: “About two-thirds of adults say their household expenses have risen over the last year, but only about a quarter have also seen their income increase during the same period.”
“Seventy-three percent describe the national economy as poor.”
UAW Expands Strike With GM
“The United Auto Workers called a fresh strike at a General Motors factory in Tennessee, a surprise walkout after negotiators had been working nearly around the clock to finalize a new contract this weekend,” the Wall Street Journal reports.
“The strike at the Tennessee plant is the latest in a series of unexpected moves by the union, which has run a strategy of misdirection and maximum publicity to keep the companies off balance. Talks had intensified in recent days between GM and union leaders, including meetings that included Fain and GM Chief Executive Mary Barra.”
“Meanwhile, the UAW confirmed Saturday evening it had reached a tentative agreement with Stellantis, moving the union one step closer to ending a historic strike that has dinged all three automakers and put more than 45,000 workers on the picket lines for six weeks.”
Yellen Says Yield Surge Is Due to Strong Economy
“Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said the surge in longer-term bond yields in recent months is a reflection of a strong US economy, not the jump in government borrowing driven by a widening fiscal deficit,” Bloomberg reports.
We Are Caught in a Mass Economic Delusion
The Economist says the pandemic has “broken” people’s perceptions about the economy.
“Although Americans report being worried about their finances, they are behaving as flush as ever—and in economic forecasting, actions speak louder than words. When used to project future spending rather than consumer sentiment, the same battery of economic variables has fully maintained its forecasting power since 2020. In contrast, since Covid began, the correlation between sentiment and both current and future spending has vanished.”
Jonathan Last: “I hear every person who says that times are tough for them and I honor and respect that. But in the aggregate, people’s views are not just a little bit off. They are wildly out of sync with reality.”
U.S. Economic Growth Accelerated in the Third Quarter
“The United States economy surged in the third quarter as a strong job market and falling inflation gave consumers the confidence to spend freely on goods and services,” the New York Times reports.
“Gross domestic product, the primary measure of economic output, grew at a 4.9 percent annualized rate from July through September, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. It was the strongest showing since late 2021, defying predictions of a slowdown prompted by the Federal Reserve’s interest rate increases.”
“The acceleration was made possible in part by slowing inflation, which lifted purchasing power even as wage growth weakened, and a job market that has shown renewed vigor over the past three months.”
Autoworkers Escalate Strike
Dallas Morning News: “5,000 Workers at General Motors’ plant in Arlington walked out on strike Tuesday, shutting down work on the production of the highly profitable full-size SUVs and launching another front in the tense fight between the UAW union and automakers.”
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