A new Gallup poll finds Americans’ confidence in the economy has plummeted to a new low, hitting likely the lowest confidence since the end of the Great Recession in early 2009.
Biden Pivots to the Economy
Playbook says the purpose of the June pivot appears threefold:
- To convince skeptical voters that, despite their current misgivings, the economy is actually doing quite well.
- To calm fears about inflation and reassure both everyday Americans and major economic players that Biden has a plan to address it.
- To thwart GOP efforts to try to hang inflation like an albatross around Democrats ahead of the midterms — and maybe even go on offense by accusing the GOP of pushing policies that will make the economy worse.
Canceling Plans at the Last Minute Is New Normal
“Calling off plans at the last minute used to be seen as rude. Now it can feel like a fixture of social life,” the Wall Street Journal reports.
“As Covid-19 cases rise in some parts of the country, cancellations keep coming. Among friends, families and colleagues, reasons for canceling plans range widely, as does the timing. This is partly due to the uneven nature by which Covid-19 spreads, and partly due to a willingness to beg off plans with little more than sniffles. The availability of rapid tests—and events that require them—has also meant that people find out their health status at the last minute.”
Worker Shortage Means Things Will Be Closed Again
“Many Americans hoped this would be the first normal summer after two years of Covid-19 disruptions. A chronic labor shortage means it probably won’t be,” the Wall Street Journal reports.
“In Phoenix, less than half of the public pools are opening because the city can’t hire enough lifeguards, despite offering a $2,500 incentive payment. Trolley lines in coastal Maine that service beaches are shutting down for the summer due to a dearth of drivers. Across the country, restaurants in tourist destinations are operating on limited hours because they don’t have enough staff to stay open longer.”
Biden Backs Fed Effort on Inflation
Wall Street Journal: “President Biden said he would support the Federal Reserve in its effort to combat high inflation by reducing economic demand, as the central bank lifts interest rates at its fastest pace in more than three decades.”
“Mr. Biden outlined a broad three-part plan for addressing inflation, which is running at 40-year highs, in an opinion piece published Monday evening in The Wall Street Journal. He is set to meet with Fed Chairman Jerome Powell on Tuesday at the White House, the first such meeting since Mr. Powell was tapped by Mr. Biden and confirmed to a second four-year term by the Senate on May 12.”
“Mr. Biden said it was likely that the pace of job growth could slow from a monthly pace of 500,000 jobs to around 150,000 as a necessary result of the Fed’s efforts to combat high inflation.”
Inflation Moderated Slightly In April
“An important measure of consumer prices showed that inflation slowed in April, but remained close to a four-decade high,” the New York Times reports.
“The Personal Consumption Expenditures price index rose 0.2% last month from March and was up 6.3% from a year earlier… That is down from a 6.6% annual increase in March, which represented the fastest pace of inflation since 1982.”
High Inflation Will Persist Into Next Year
Washington Post: “High inflation is expected to persist for the rest of the year, saddling Americans with higher costs as price hikes continue, the Congressional Budget Office said on Wednesday.”
“The nonpartisan budget office estimated that key measures of inflation will show signs of easing this year relative to last year, but will remain uncomfortably high as demand continues to outstrip supply, putting upward pressure on prices.”
Janet Yellen Sees Clout Diminished
Politico: “When Janet Yellen was tapped to join the Biden administration as Treasury secretary, she came with celebrity status — one of the world’s preeminent economists and the first woman to have led the Federal Reserve.”
“More than a year later, as Democrats are grappling with decades-high inflation, stock market turmoil and rising recession fears, Yellen is rarely on center stage. She has surprised supporters by wielding less influence in the West Wing than her recent predecessors did in the job, which is often considered an administration’s chief economic policymaking post.”
CBO Forecasts Soft Landing
The Congressional Budget Office forecasts U.S. economic growth “will exceed 3% in 2022, while roaring inflation has topped and will cool each month to around 2% by some point in 2024,” CNBC reports.
“The upbeat tone of the report appeared to include an implicit prediction that the Federal Reserve, the nation’s central bank in charge of managing inflation, will be able to raise interest rates throughout 2022 and 2023 without tipping the U.S. economy into a recession.”
Whistleblower Report on Baby Formula Got Lost
“When a whistleblower sent a 34-page report to the Food and Drug Administration in October alleging a host of unsanitary conditions at an Abbott infant formula factory, the top official in charge of food safety didn’t see it,” the Washington Post reports.
“In fact, Frank Yiannas, the FDA’s deputy commissioner for food policy and response, didn’t learn about the complaint until four months later.”
New Home Sales Plunged Last Month
Sales of new U.S. homes plummeted in April by 16.6% — the most in nearly nine years, dented by the combination of high prices and a steep climb in mortgage rates, Bloomberg reports.
Meanwhile, the Wall Street Journal reports the Fed will face a tough decision regarding “how far and how fast rates need to go up to make a dent in the housing market without triggering a painful economic slowdown.”
Economy Now Bigger Priority than Russia Response
A new AP-NORC poll finds Americans “are becoming less supportive of punishing Russia for launching its invasion of Ukraine if it comes at the expense of the U.S. economy, a sign of rising anxiety over inflation and other challenges.”
“Now 45% of U.S. adults say the nation’s bigger priority should be sanctioning Russia as effectively as possible, while slightly more — 51% — say it should be limiting damage to the U.S. economy.”
“In April, those figures were exactly reversed. In March, shortly after Russia attacked Ukraine, a clear majority — 55% — said the bigger priority should be sanctioning Russia as effectively as possible.”
U.S. Military Airlifts Baby Formula From Europe
“A shipment of infant formula intended to fill a nationwide shortage arrived in the United States from Europe on Sunday, and a second flight was expected to bring additional supplies in the coming days,” the New York Times reports.
Inflation Costing U.S. Households $341 a Month
CNBC: “Consumer prices rose 8.3% in April from a year ago. As a result, U.S. households are spending an additional $341 a month to purchase the same goods and services compared to a year ago due to inflation above typical inflation of 2%.”
Who Won the U.S.-China Trade War?
Wall Street Journal: “Economists routinely say that no one wins a trade war because costs rise on all sides. If that’s the case, the U.S., which started the fight and eventually slapped steep tariffs on three-quarters of everything China sold to the U.S. to force changes in Chinese economic policy, lost by not winning.”
“There is plenty of evidence for a U.S. loss. During a trip to Beijing in May 2018, top Trump administration officials laid out their demands: cut the bilateral trade deficit by $200 billion, end subsidies for advanced technology, halt pressure on U.S. companies to hand over technology and strengthen intellectual property protection.”
“To press Beijing to comply, the administration carried out four rounds of tariff hikes, which raised average U.S. duties on Chinese goods to 21% from 3.1%. China retaliated with similar levies.”
Global Leaders Warn of Economic Dangers
“The financial leaders of the world’s most powerful countries warned this week of the potential for a global economic slowdown, as the threats caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine continued to multiply,” the Washington Post reports.
“Globally, the war is sending energy and food prices soaring. In the United States, Great Britain and Europe, central banks determined to curb inflation are moving to hike interest rates, which risks pushing nations back into recession. The developing world faces an emerging debt crisis on top of a growing hunger problem sparked by the war.”
“After approving trillions of dollars in fiscal stimulus to avert the downturn caused by the coronavirus pandemic, world economic leaders are now grappling with the threat of ‘stagflation’ — slow, or negative, economic growth, coupled with rising inflation. The risks abroad may be even greater than in the United States, economists say.”
Number on Unemployment Hits 52-Year Low
“The number of people receiving unemployment benefits fell in early May to the lowest point in more than 50 years, adding to signs the U.S. labor market remains unusually tight,” the Wall Street Journal reports.
The Coming Food Catastrophe
The Economist: “By invading Ukraine, Vladimir Putin will destroy the lives of people far from the battlefield—and on a scale even he may regret. The war is battering a global food system weakened by covid-19, climate change and an energy shock. Ukraine’s exports of grain and oilseeds have mostly stopped and Russia’s are threatened. Together, the two countries supply 12% of traded calories. Wheat prices, up 53% since the start of the year, jumped a further 6% on May 16th, after India said it would suspend exports because of an alarming heatwave.”
“The widely accepted idea of a cost-of-living crisis does not begin to capture the gravity of what may lie ahead.”
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