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After Rep. John Lewis (D-GA) passed away on July 17, Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp (R) ordered a special election to fill out the remainder of Lewis’s term for September 29.

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The Trump campaign once argued they would expand the electoral map and compete in three states that Hillary Clinton won in 2016: Minnesota, New Hampshire and New Mexico.

This piece for members is by David T.S. Jonas.

Last week, the Washington Post published a fantastic interactive scenario builder that allows you to play around with demographics and turnout levels to project whether Donald Trump or Joe Biden will win in 2020.

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Just after I made the case that the presidential race wasn’t tightening, a reader pointed out that I made the exact same argument four years ago on October 26, 2016. Hillary Clinton’s national polling lead had held fairly steady over the previous six weeks.

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Many in the news media are desperate to tell the story of a tightening presidential race. Some reporters and commentators will cherry pick data to build their case.

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Conventional wisdom holds that most Americans don’t pay much attention to politics until after Labor Day. I’m not sure that’s true anymore, but let’s look at where the race stands with exactly eight weeks until Election Day.

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Our first indication that President Trump’s campaign was having money problems was the decision to pull all television ads during the GOP convention. Campaigns typically use television ads to reinforce the convention’s message.

An invite for members: The Future of Our Postal Service in an Election Year and Beyond: A Conversation with Rep. Gerry Connolly (D-VA).

The conversation is on Wednesday, September 9 at 1:30 p.m. ET and is sponsored by Cornell’s Institute of Politics and Global Affairs.

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Democrats have won the national popular vote in four of the last five presidential elections, but they have only won the electoral vote twice.

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In June, New  York state assemblyman Steve Otis (D) faced a self-funded challenger Meg Cameron (D) in the Democratic primary for his seat. The campaign was waged in the first area of the country to be hit hard by the coronavirus pandemic — so it was almost entirely virtual.

This piece for members is by David T.S. Jonas.

With Donald Trump only having captured 46% of the popular vote in 2016, the entire premise of a Joe Biden victory can be boiled down to one question: have on-the-margin voters learned anything over the past four years?