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Trump Has a Big Problem In California

April 13, 2016 at 9:34 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 10 Comments

This piece is only available to Political Wire members.

With the presidential race heating up in California, Donald Trump named GOP strategist Tim Clark as his state director yesterday, the Sacramento Bee reports.

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Filed Under: 2016 Campaign, Members Tagged With: California, Donald Trump

Trump Is Now the Underdog

April 12, 2016 at 9:08 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 11 Comments

This piece is only available to Political Wire members.

Donald Trump leads the Republican presidential race in term of delegates won and he’s led the national polling averages for more than nine months. But after a rough few weeks, it appears Trump is now the underdog to win the GOP nomination.

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Filed Under: 2016 Campaign, Members Tagged With: Donald Trump

New York Primary Cheat Sheet

April 11, 2016 at 12:14 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 2 Comments

This piece is only available to Political Wire members.

Political Wire friend Greg Giroux has put together a phenomenal spreadsheet ahead of next week’s New York primary. The four tab sheet contains the following data:

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Filed Under: 2016 Campaign, Members Tagged With: New York

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5 Republican Convention Scenarios from Bad to Worst

April 8, 2016 at 1:27 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 36 Comments

This piece is only available to Political Wire members.

Many are speculating how the Republican nominating process might end, but the only agreement is that none of the possible outcomes are very good for the Republican party.

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Filed Under: 2016 Campaign, Members

Who Will Win a Contested GOP Convention?

April 6, 2016 at 12:29 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 17 Comments

This piece is only available to Political Wire members.

It’s conventional wisdom that if Donald Trump doesn’t have a majority of delegates on a first ballot at the Republican National Convention in July, he won’t end up as the nominee.

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Filed Under: 2016 Campaign, Members

Why Bernie Sanders Can’t Win

April 6, 2016 at 8:31 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 23 Comments

This piece is only available to Political Wire members.

Sen. Bernie Sanders won the Wisconsin primary by a wider margin than the polls suggested, 57% to 43%, which will feed the narrative that his campaign has momentum. But his chances of winning the Democratic nomination — while mathematically possible if one assumes superdelegates can switch allegiances — remain extremely slim.

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Filed Under: 2016 Campaign, Members Tagged With: Bernie Sanders, Hillary Clinton

The Math Is Much Worse for Cruz

April 5, 2016 at 10:53 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 6 Comments

This piece is only available to Political Wire members.

We noted yesterday that the delegate math is quickly turning against Donald Trump’s bid to win a majority of delegates before the Republican convention.

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Filed Under: 2016 Campaign, Members Tagged With: Ted Cruz

Trump Is Boosting Enthusiasm — of Democrats

April 4, 2016 at 5:01 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 30 Comments

This piece is only available to Political Wire members.

A new Democracy Corp poll finds that the Republican presidential primary and Donald Trump’s candidacy is beginning to lift the engagement not just of core Democratic groups — minorities, millennials, and single white women — but also the swing voters like college-educated women who usually split between the two parties.

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Filed Under: 2016 Campaign, Members Tagged With: Donald Trump

The Math Is Now Against Trump

April 4, 2016 at 3:29 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 12 Comments

This piece is only available to Political Wire members.

If the polls in Wisconsin are correct, Sen. Ted Cruz holds a three-point lead over Donald Trump. If that lead holds tomorrow in the primary, Cruz could seriously cut into Trump’s 273-delegate lead. There are 42 delegates at stake in Wisconsin — 18 awarded to the statewide winner and 24 across the eight congressional districts.

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Filed Under: 2016 Campaign, Members Tagged With: Donald Trump

If Trump Collapses at Convention So Does Cruz

April 3, 2016 at 9:34 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 38 Comments

This piece is only available to Political Wire members.

GOP strategist Alex Castellanos emails that “the near-certain nomination Donald Trump had in his hands the night of his huge March 15 Florida victory and his Presidential-style election night press conference has now slipped through his fingers.”

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Filed Under: 2016 Campaign, Members Tagged With: Donald Trump, Ted Cruz

Republicans Should Hope for a Contested Convention

April 2, 2016 at 4:01 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 24 Comments

This piece is only available to Political Wire members.

If Donald Trump loses the Wisconsin primary next week, the most likely scenario is that he ends the GOP primary season with more delegates than any other candidate but not enough to secure the presidential nomination.

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Filed Under: 2016 Campaign, Members, Republicans

Delegate Loyalty May Decide the GOP Nomination

April 1, 2016 at 3:39 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 12 Comments

This piece is only available to Political Wire members.

While the cable news networks are focused on next week’s Wisconsin primary and on looming primaries in New York and Pennsylvania, a more important contest is taking place in states that have already allocated their delegates.

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Filed Under: 2016 Campaign, Members, Republicans

Is Wisconsin Slipping Away from Trump?

March 30, 2016 at 6:31 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 34 Comments

This piece is only available to Political Wire members.

If the Marquette Law School poll in Wisconsin is correct, Donald Trump is on his way to losing next week’s primary. He’s trailing Ted Cruz by 10 points, 40% to 30%.

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Filed Under: 2016 Campaign, Members Tagged With: Wisconsin

The Most Memorable Contested Conventions

March 29, 2016 at 6:04 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 2 Comments

This piece is only available to Political Wire members.

There hasn’t been a contested or brokered convention in either party since 1976 but it’s increasingly likely there will be one on the Republican side this year. Only Donald Trump seems to have a chance at reaching the 1,238 delegates he needs by the end of the primaries, but there is a concerted effort by Ted Cruz, John Kasich and party leaders to stop him. It’s not event clear that if he technically wins a majority that his delegates will stick with him.

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Filed Under: 2016 Campaign, Members, Political History

Why Clinton May Be Much Stronger Than She Seems

March 29, 2016 at 2:15 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 31 Comments

This piece is only available to Political Wire members.

Conventional wisdom suggests that Democratic voters aren’t as excited about Hillary Clinton as they are about Bernie Sanders. It’s driven by two key factors: Sanders regularly draws thousands to his rallies and he’s raised money from millions of small donors.

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Filed Under: 2016 Campaign, Members Tagged With: Hillary Clinton

How Trump and Cruz Took Over the Republican Party

March 29, 2016 at 11:22 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 29 Comments

This piece is only available to Political Wire members.

Donald Trump’s candidacy exposed the growing rift between the Republican party establishment and the party’s base on a host of issues.

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Filed Under: 2016 Campaign, Members, Republicans

Why Sanders Isn’t Going to Drop Out

March 28, 2016 at 10:13 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 28 Comments

This piece is only available to Political Wire members.

By any measure, the delegate math shows Sen. Bernie Sanders is unlikely to win the Democratic presidential nomination. But Sanders knows that to keep his issues at the forefront of the national conversation, he must keep the illusion of a horse race.

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Filed Under: 2016 Campaign, Members Tagged With: Bernie Sanders

Why Can’t Clinton Win Caucus States?

March 28, 2016 at 9:12 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 17 Comments

This piece is only available to Political Wire members.

Sen. Bernie Sanders racked up three enormous wins over the weekend (after taking two of three contests last Tuesday) and is beginning to change the narrative that Hillary Clinton has a lock on the Democratic nomination. Worse, the results underscore lingering unease among Democratic voters about their likely nominee.

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Filed Under: 2016 Campaign, Members

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About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

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