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Trump Has a Big Problem In California

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With the presidential race heating up in California, Donald Trump named GOP strategist Tim Clark as his state director yesterday, the Sacramento Bee reports.

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Trump Is Now the Underdog

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Donald Trump leads the Republican presidential race in term of delegates won and he’s led the national polling averages for more than nine months. But after a rough few weeks, it appears Trump is now the underdog to win the GOP nomination.

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Why Bernie Sanders Can’t Win

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Sen. Bernie Sanders won the Wisconsin primary by a wider margin than the polls suggested, 57% to 43%, which will feed the narrative that his campaign has momentum. But his chances of winning the Democratic nomination — while mathematically possible if one assumes superdelegates can switch allegiances — remain extremely slim.

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Trump Is Boosting Enthusiasm — of Democrats

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A new Democracy Corp poll finds that the Republican presidential primary and Donald Trump’s candidacy is beginning to lift the engagement not just of core Democratic groups — minorities, millennials, and single white women — but also the swing voters like college-educated women who usually split between the two parties.

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The Math Is Now Against Trump

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If the polls in Wisconsin are correct, Sen. Ted Cruz holds a three-point lead over Donald Trump. If that lead holds tomorrow in the primary, Cruz could seriously cut into Trump’s 273-delegate lead. There are 42 delegates at stake in Wisconsin — 18 awarded to the statewide winner and 24 across the eight congressional districts.

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If Trump Collapses at Convention So Does Cruz

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GOP strategist Alex Castellanos emails that “the near-certain nomination Donald Trump had in his hands the night of his huge March 15 Florida victory and his Presidential-style election night press conference has now slipped through his fingers.”

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Republicans Should Hope for a Contested Convention

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If Donald Trump loses the Wisconsin primary next week, the most likely scenario is that he ends the GOP primary season with more delegates than any other candidate but not enough to secure the presidential nomination.

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Delegate Loyalty May Decide the GOP Nomination

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While the cable news networks are focused on next week’s Wisconsin primary and on looming primaries in New York and Pennsylvania, a more important contest is taking place in states that have already allocated their delegates.

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The Most Memorable Contested Conventions

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There hasn’t been a contested or brokered convention in either party since 1976 but it’s increasingly likely there will be one on the Republican side this year. Only Donald Trump seems to have a chance at reaching the 1,238 delegates he needs by the end of the primaries, but there is a concerted effort by Ted Cruz, John Kasich and party leaders to stop him. It’s not event clear that if he technically wins a majority that his delegates will stick with him.

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Why Clinton May Be Much Stronger Than She Seems

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Conventional wisdom suggests that Democratic voters aren’t as excited about Hillary Clinton as they are about Bernie Sanders. It’s driven by two key factors: Sanders regularly draws thousands to his rallies and he’s raised money from millions of small donors.

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Why Sanders Isn’t Going to Drop Out

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By any measure, the delegate math shows Sen. Bernie Sanders is unlikely to win the Democratic presidential nomination. But Sanders knows that to keep his issues at the forefront of the national conversation, he must keep the illusion of a horse race.

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Why Can’t Clinton Win Caucus States?

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Sen. Bernie Sanders racked up three enormous wins over the weekend (after taking two of three contests last Tuesday) and is beginning to change the narrative that Hillary Clinton has a lock on the Democratic nomination. Worse, the results underscore lingering unease among Democratic voters about their likely nominee.

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About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

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