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Donald Trump’s decision to skip the next debate marked yet another unexpected twist in his presidential campaign but probably a very smart political decision.

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GOP strategist Alex Castellanos, who predicted months ago that Donald Trump could win the Republican nomination, emails Political Wire: “Marco Rubio could still win this win this thing.”

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For months, national polls have shown Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton with large leads in their quest for their party’s presidential nominations.

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A top Republican strategist worried about Donald Trump emails with a silver lining: “I do think talk of Trump helps Bernie Sanders greatly. Anyone will beat Trump so the electability argument of Hillary Clinton is meaningless.”

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I receive some push back after calling Sen. Bernie Sanders’s new 60-second television spot “the best ad of the presidential campaign so far.”

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In all the analysis of the early voting states in the 2016 presidential primaries, one significant difference this year gets little notice: There are currently six GOP candidates polling in the double-digits in New Hampshire.

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Political advertising isn’t working very well so far in the 2016 GOP presidential race. According to SMG Delta, the two largest buyers of political advertising in the presidential race so far — Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio — have spent a combined $91 million via their campaigns and outside groups. When you add in money spent by Chris Christie and John Kasich, the total amount spent by establishment-friendly Republicans is $112 million.

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Gov. Terry Branstad sent shockwaves through his state by publicly urging Iowa Republicans to defeat Sen. Ted Cruz in the caucuses next month. But while analysts like Chris Cillizza correctly note the GOP establishment hates Cruz, Branstad’s comments actually hurt the establishment candidates.

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Most analysts still believe that despite the chaos of the Republican presidential campaign, a winner is most likely to emerge by mid-March.

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An emerging narrative suggests that an establishment Republican — such as Marco Rubio or Chris Christie — won’t need to win one of the early voting states because they can rack up delegates in traditional blue states like Massachusetts and California which vote later in the process.

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It’s hard to know why some of these people ever decided to start running for president, so trying to predict when they’ll stop isn’t easy. From what we know today, here’s my best guess:

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The New York Times drops in at a fundraiser for Sen. Ted Cruz held by longtime GOP operative Mary Matalin which raises the question of whether Cruz is becoming a more acceptable candidate to the GOP establishment.