“A Maryland judge has thrown out the state’s congressional map, calling it an ‘extreme partisan gerrymander’ in what is a victory for Republicans who said Democrats in the state General Assembly sought to silence their votes,” the Washington Post reports.
Sununu to Veto New Hampshire Maps
“New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu has said clearly for months that he doesn’t like the once-in-a decade redistricting maps being pushed through the state’s legislature by fellow Republicans who control both chambers,” Fox News reports.
“And on Wednesday, the Republican governor announced that he will veto the maps.”
Ohio Supreme Court Rejects Statehouse Maps
“The Ohio Supreme Court struck down the third set of state House and Senate maps late Wednesday, effectively ending any hope of a May 3rd primary with both legislative and statewide races,” the Columbus Dispatch reports.
5 States Left in Redistricting
Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: “The national redistricting picture is nearly complete, as only 5 more states — Florida, Louisiana, Missouri, New Hampshire and Ohio — have yet to enact congressional maps.”
“While Democrats are currently up in our running House tally, the plans from those 5 remaining states should boost the Republican tally.”
A Balanced Congressional Map
Nate Cohn: “In a departure from a decades-long pattern in American politics, this year’s national congressional map is poised to be balanced between the two parties, with a nearly equal number of districts that are expected to lean Democratic and Republican for the first time in more than 50 years.”
“Despite the persistence of partisan gerrymandering, between 216 and 219 congressional districts, out of the 435 nationwide, appear likely to tilt toward the Democrats… An identical 216 to 219 districts appear likely to tilt toward Republicans, if the maps enacted so far withstand legal challenges. To reach a majority, a party needs to secure 218 districts.”
Edwards Vetoes New Louisiana Map
Louisiana Gov. John Bel Edwards (D) vetoed the congressional redistricting map passed by the Republican-majority Legislature, saying it should have included a district that would allow a second Black candidate a chance to serve in the state’s congressional delegation, the Baton Rouge Advocate reports.
Justices Reject GOP Redistricting Pleas In 2 States
“The Supreme Court has turned away efforts from Republicans in North Carolina and Pennsylvania to block state court-ordered congressional districting plans more favorable to Democrats,” the AP reports.
Few Americans Pay Attention to Redistricting
A new Pew Research survey finds just 14% of Americans say they have heard a lot about the redistricting process in their state.
Overall, 85% say they have heard a little or nothing at all about legislative redistricting in their state.
How Lopsided District Lines Deepen America’s Divide
New York Times: “All across the nation, political mapmakers have erected similarly impenetrable partisan fortresses through the once-in-a-decade redrawing of America’s congressional lines. Texas, which holds the nation’s first primaries on Tuesday, is an especially extreme example of how competition between the two parties has been systemically erased. Nearly 90 percent of the next House could be occupied by lawmakers who, like Mr. Crenshaw, face almost no threat of losing a general election, a precipitous drop that dramatically changes the political incentives and pressures they confront.”
“When primaries are the only campaigns that count, candidates are often punished for compromise. The already polarized parties are pulled even farther apart. Governance becomes harder.”
GOP Tries to Neutralize State Supreme Courts
“Repeatedly stymied by local courts in their efforts to draw maps that make it easier for their party to win elections, Republicans are trying to neutralize the ability of state supreme courts to interfere in the politically-charged redistricting process,” the AP reports.
“After setbacks in North Carolina and Pennsylvania’s supreme courts this week, GOP officials said the party needs to invest more in winning races for seats on those bodies.”
Redistricting and Competition in House Races
Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: “Despite the growing proportion of districts that strongly favor one party based on presidential voting, the actual margins of House elections have changed very little over the past 50 years, and partisan turnover has fallen only slightly, if at all.”
“The explanation for these contradictory trends is that the personal advantage of incumbency has declined dramatically since the 1980s: The ability of House incumbents to attract votes across party lines and thereby insulate themselves from competition is now much more limited than it was in the 1970s and 1980s.”
Ohio Supreme Court Justice Will Recuse on Redistricting
“Ohio Supreme Court Justice Pat DeWine said Thursday he would recuse himself from an upcoming hearing before the court in which his father, Gov. Mike DeWine, and other members of the Ohio Redistricting Commission have been ordered to explain why they violated a court order to approve new state legislative maps by late last week,” the Cleveland Plain Dealer reports.
New North Carolina Map Eliminates GOP Edge
“A North Carolina court rejected a Republican-drawn map of the state’s 14 congressional districts on Wednesday and substituted its own version, the second time in less than two weeks that a court in the state has invalidated a Republican House map as unconstitutionally partisan,” the New York Times reports.
“The new map, drawn by a nonpartisan panel of four redistricting experts, appeared to split North Carolina’s congressional districts roughly equally between Republicans and Democrats, in a state where voters are divided evenly along partisan lines. It gives each party six relatively safe House seats and makes the remaining two winnable by either side.”
Pennsylvania Supreme Court Picks New Map
“The Pennsylvania Supreme Court has selected a new congressional map that will shape power and politics in the state for the next decade,” the Philadelphia Inquirer reports.
“In a 4-3 decision Wednesday, the court chose a map that was drawn by a Stanford professor and proposed by Democratic plaintiffs. The court also imposed a new election calendar for the May 17 primary, leaving that election day in place while moving the deadlines for candidates to file paperwork to get on the ballot.”
Vast Majority of Districts Aren’t Competitive
The Guardian: “Just 27 of the 335 congressional districts that have been drawn so far as part of the redistricting process are considered competitive – meaning either party has less than a five-point advantage – according to FiveThirtyEight. Dave Wasserman, an elections expert for the non-partisan Cook Political Report, told me he expects there to be 30 to 35 competitive seats in total once states finish drawing all 435 district boundaries. That means that as many as 94% of representatives would be running in relatively safe seats.”
DeSantis Vows Not to Sign Off On New Map
“Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis on Friday vowed not to sign a new congressional map unless lawmakers dismantle a North Florida district represented by a Black Democrat, setting up a showdown with his own party that threatens to upend the state’s delicate redistricting process,” CNN reports.
Kansas Senate Overrides Veto of New Map
Members of the Kansas state Senate overrode Gov. Laura Kelly’s (D) veto of the new congressional map, despite initially falling short of the votes to do so, the Kansas City Star reports.
The override effort now heads to the state House.
Democrats’ Position Improves in Redistricting Tally
Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: “Thanks in large part to state courts ruling against Republican gerrymanders in North Carolina and Ohio and Democrats drawing an aggressive gerrymander of New York, the Democratic position has improved in our running assessment of House redistricting so far.”
Nonetheless: “Republicans remain favored to flip the House in 2022.”
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