Marc Ambinder says it’s a myth “that Democrats do poorly in midterm elections generally. In 1998, they did not. In 2006, they did not. In 2002 and 2010, Republicans gained seats in both chambers. Setting aside the structural engineering of politics — the gerrymandering of districts, for example — there are some things the Democrats did, and did not do, that hurt them.”
“The first is that they broke their promise on immigration. To be sure, Republicans win the obstructionist trophy on immigration reform. But Obama all but promised to act in their stead. He did not… Had Obama made some big gesture accompanied by strong executive action to pull out of the shadows millions of Latinos, his party might well have rewarded him. Not just Hispanic voters, but other Democratic voters who supported his position. If you don’t give someone a concrete reason to vote, something they can hang their minds around, then they’ve got to be persuaded by an appeal to their fears.”
“Democrats know that President Obama remains in charge. They know that the GOP can’t do anything awful for the next two years. Democrats tend not be motivated by judges and cultural issues; their base was not set up that way, the Republicans were. Democrats are also confident that they’ll keep the presidency in 2016, and if they pay attention to politics, they know that 2016 is cyclically shaping up to be a better year for them. So — really — why vote? Or, put another way, why go out of your way to vote?”
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