Political Wire

China to Insist Lifting of Huawei Ban In Trade Truce

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“Chinese President Xi Jinping plans to present President Trump with a set of terms the U.S. should meet before Beijing is ready to settle a market-rattling trade confrontation, raising questions of whether the two leaders will agree to relaunch talks,” the Wall Street Journal reports..

“Among the preconditions, said Chinese officials with knowledge of the plan, Beijing is insisting that the U.S. remove its ban on the sale of U.S. technology to Chinese telecommunications giant Huawei Technologies Co. Beijing also wants the U.S. to lift all punitive tariffs and drop efforts to get China to buy even more U.S. exports than Beijing said it would when the two leaders last met in December.”

The First Democratic Debate – Night One

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The first of two Democratic presidential debates starts at 9 p.m. ET tonight. It will be broadcast on NBC News, MSNBC and Telemundo and live-streamed via NBCNews.com.

Sen. Elizabeth Warren will be the only candidate polling in double digits on the first night of the debate. Her greatest competition for air time will be Sen. Cory Booker, Sen. Amy Klobuchar and Beto O’Rourke, none of whom have gained much traction since entering the race.

Other candidates tonight include Mayor Bill de Blasio, Rep. Tulsi Gabbard, Gov. Jay Inslee, Julian Castro, Rep. Tim Ryan and John Delaney.

Leave your reactions in the comments.

DNC Chairman Says Debates Won’t Get Nasty

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DNC Chairman Tom Perez said he’s not worried that the debate between the 2020 contenders will get nasty, The Hill reports.

Said Perez: “We’re going to talk about the issues. There will be nobody talking about hand size. There will be nobody talking about silly nicknames for their opponents, we’ll leave that to the Republicans.”

Sanders Won’t Commit to Supporting Nominee

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When asked if he would commit to supporting the Democratic nominee if it’s clear it won’t be him, Sen. Bernie Sanders would not make any such commitment to NBC News.

Instead, he talked about his 2016 race: “Some people say that maybe if the system was not rigged against me, I would have won the nomination.”

Jonathan Chait: “While Sanders is coyly hiding behind the ‘some people say’ formulation, he is threatening to repeat the tactics he used in 2016, when he called the process ‘rigged’ and withheld his support long after the outcome was decided.”

The Knowns and Unknowns of the Debates

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Steve Israel: “First, the ‘unknowns’ must become known. For candidates polling in the neighborhood of 1 percent, such as Kirsten Gillibrand, Andrew Yang, Eric Swalwell, Tim Ryan, or Bill De Blasio, the debate stage will be a launchpad. They need to make the case to donors, activists, and primary voters that they are viable investments. If they leave the debate the way they came in, as mostly unknown, then they will have lost the debate and likely the race.”

“Second, the ‘knowns’ must remain unscathed. For candidates at the head of the pack, they run with targets on their backs. Joe Biden has the largest target and could find himself playing defense… But Elizabeth Warren has enjoyed a recent surge as a progressive, and there should be no surprise if you see some attempts to blunt her momentum.”

“Third, the ‘known unknowns’ must sink or swim. Candidates like Cory Booker and Beto O’Rourke who have polled somewhere between the top and bottom tiers of the pack will use their moment in the spotlight to offer the public some more compelling rationales for why they should be the Democratic Party nominee. These middle tier candidates will either gas up or sputter out under the pressure of standing out on the debate stage.”

Mueller Testimony Could Make or Break Impeachment

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“House Democrats advocating for impeachment say special counsel Robert Mueller’s testimony next month could be a game-changer to push both public opinion and reticent Democrats toward opening an impeachment inquiry into President Trump,” CNN reports.

“But Mueller’s appearance amounts to a make-or-break moment for the House impeachment caucus. If the special counsel’s testimony falls flat or doesn’t change minds, it could deflate the momentum for impeachment that’s swelled to nearly 80 House Democrats backing an inquiry just before a lengthy, month-long congressional recess.”

Trump Suggests Suing Google and Facebook

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President Trump told Fox Business the federal government should sue tech giants like Google and Facebook and lambasted the platforms, including Twitter, for allegedly trying to rig the 2020 elections in favor of Democrats.

Said Trump: “They make it much harder for me to get out the message. These people are all Democrats, it’s totally biased toward Democrats. If I announced tomorrow that I’m going to become a nice liberal Democrat, I would pick up five times more followers.”

Beto O’Rourke Is the Polar Opposite of Trump

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Matthew Yglesias: “But while Beto’s campaign seemed almost painfully meta — he’s the guy who party professionals thought seemed like the kind of guy who voters would like — he’s running on a substantive agenda that in some ways comes the closest to representing the polar opposite of Trumpism.”

“He’s a NAFTA supporter and a longtime resident of a majority-Latinx border city who’s enthusiastic about immigration. His immigration platform commits him to going further than Trump or Obama in aggressively deploying executive power — protecting not only Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals recipients but also their parents from deportation. He also calls for legislation that would dramatically expand a number of categories of immigration, from refugees to family unification to high-skilled workers.”

“But it’s really O’Rourke’s fulsome embrace of a politics of cosmopolitanism that makes him stand out from the rest of the field. While Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren try to out-protectionist Trump and Joe Biden casts himself as an electability champion ready to win back the Rust Belt, Beto is the candidate of a hypothetical future Democratic Party that wins elections in Texas, Georgia, and Arizona powered by voters in the fast-growing suburbs of Dallas, Houston, Atlanta, and Phoenix.”

What Happened to America’s Political Center?

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Sahil Chinoy: “The Republican Party leans much farther right than most traditional conservative parties in Western Europe and Canada, according to an analysis of their election manifestos. It is more extreme than Britain’s Independence Party and France’s National Rally (formerly the National Front), which some consider far-right populist parties.”

“The Democrats fall closer to mainstream left and center-left parties in other countries, like the Social Democratic Party in Germany and Britain’s Labour Party, according to their manifestos’ scores.”

“And the United States’ political center of gravity is to the right of other countries’, partly because of the lack of a serious left-wing party.”

A Day Off?

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This email from a Political Wire reader sums up politics today:

I swear, I remember a time when you could take a day off.

And this made my day:

I have been a multiple-times-per-day visitor to the site for as long as I can remember. I’m embarrassed it took me this long to become a member and to support your work. You and your great site are deeply appreciated.

This one too:

The mere thought that I would “cancel my subscription” is laughable. Political Wire is easily the best $50 I spend all year.

If you’re a regular reader, please consider becoming a member. You’ll get exclusive analysis, new features, no advertising and more.

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Graham Moves to Lock Out Primary Challengers

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Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) “does not yet have a viable primary challenger — and the South Carolina Republican intends to keep it that way,” McClatchy reports.

“On Wednesday, the incumbent U.S. senator’s campaign announced that every Republican in the state’s congressional delegation is endorsing Graham for re-election in 2020… This announcement follows Graham’s rollout last week of endorsements from every Republican statewide elected constitutional officer.”

“The endorsements signal that Graham’s support his strong inside his party, giving him a comfort with his base he has not typically enjoyed in previous election cycles.”

What the Mueller Hearing Means for Democrats

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Playbook: “House Democrats have griped behind the scenes that their agenda is getting short shrift. The DCCC has presented Democrats with stark polling to back that up. Democratic leadership has suggested privately that impeachment could cost the party their majority and the White House.”

“But now, with Robert Mueller’s planned appearance in front of two House committees next month, House Democrats have set up a nearly monthlong period of intense political suspense and speculation that only heightens and highlights impeachment, and risks completely drowning out anything else the party will do.”

“Mueller and impeachment are now assured to be the dominant and likely singular conversation from now until the August recess. Is July 17 the beginning of impeachment? Or just another event the leadership will be able to blow by?”

For members: The Day Democrats Have Been Waiting For

Greatest Hits and Misses from Past Primary Debates

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John Avlon reviews the “top 5 greatest hits and misses” from presidential primary debates in the last 40 years.

And some history from Kyle Kondik: “While we count 196 debates in modern presidential primary history, almost all of these have come within the last four decades. Prior to 1980, Republicans held just one debate, in 1948, while Democrats held 11 in the 1950s, 1960s, and 1970s. That means that 94% of all presidential primary debates have been held just since 1980.”

Dean Says Democrats Will Lose with Two White Men

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Former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean (D) told the Washington Post that Democrats “won’t win the White House if they nominate two older white men to be president and vice president in 2020, echoing calls by other prominent liberals for the party to embrace diversity on its presidential ticket.”

Said Dean: “If we have two old white guys at the top of this ticket, we will lose.”

Trump Accuses Mueller of a Crime

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President Trump lashed out at former special counsel Robert Mueller, “accusing him without evidence of committing a crime by deleting text messages exchanged by two former FBI officials who had expressed disdain for the president,” the Washington Post reports.

Said Trump: “Robert Mueller terminated their text messages. He terminated them. They’re gone. And that’s illegal. That’s a crime.”

About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

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