Political Wire

Can Scott Colom Win in Mississippi’s Senate Race?

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Washington Post: “The formula for Colom to win is deceptively simple: He needs a huge turnout from Black voters and about a quarter of the White vote. Doesn’t sound that hard, yet no Democrat has solved the problem in Mississippi in more than 40 years, and no African American has won statewide since Reconstruction.”

”This year the stakes are especially high, with control of the Senate in the balance and President Donald Trump’s agenda riding on it. Across the nation, deep red states have shifted in recent weeks and become unexpectedly competitive battlegrounds — nowhere more remarkably than in Mississippi.”

For members: Could Mississippi Deliver a November Surprise?

Democrats Have Edge in Four Pennsylvania House Races

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“Democrats trying to unseat Republicans in four battleground Pennsylvania House districts are ahead in two of them, hold a narrow edge in a third and are tied in a fourth,” the New York Times reports.

“The four seats in Pennsylvania are seen as critical examples of some of the fights playing out nationwide. The districts include working-class communities in the state’s northeastern corner, growing towns with large Hispanic populations, a swing Philadelphia suburb and some more conservative parts of the center of the state.”

Economic Woes Transform the Midwest Into a Battleground

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CNN: “A decade after the Trump era began, when he first turned Midwestern political battlegrounds into reliably Republican states, the fallout from policies of his second term have rippled through the agriculture sector and broader economies across the Great Plains and the Rust Belt.”

“Iowa and Ohio, which have not been competitive since former President Barack Obama was on the ballot, are in play. And ruby-red states like Kansas, Nebraska and Indiana are not exempt. The shift is happening up and down the ballot, with tight contests for the House, Senate and governor blanketing the middle of the country.”

Democrats Hope Independents Can Help Senate Odds

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NPR: “Osborn is one of four independents running for Senate in states President Trump won handily, including Idaho, South Dakota and Montana. Buoyed by the president’s sinking approval ratings and public frustration over affordability, independent candidates argue they bring a winning case to voters.”

“It is an argument that some Democrats hope will resonate with voters as the party looks to retake control of Congress, betting that these candidates can help topple Republicans in parts of the country where their own brand is hurting.”

An Iowa Republican’s Unusual Connection to the Kochs

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“If there is one thing that Zach Lahn, the Republican nominee for governor of Iowa, definitely does not want to talk about, it’s his connection to the Koch family,” the New York Times reports.

“To hear Mr. Lahn tell it, he is a self-made businessman, a father of seven and a farmer running against powerful corporate interests. He has campaigned on his financial independence, pointing to the $2.5 million he lent himself during the primary.”

“He rode that cash and a right-leaning brand of prairie populism to the nomination, defeating President Trump’s preferred pick in the primary. Now he is facing Rob Sand, the Democratic state auditor, in a race that Democrats view as one of their best shots to flip a governorship.”

“But there is a more complicated tale of Mr. Lahn’s rise that is interwoven with the Kochs, one of America’s richest and most influential political dynasties.”

Latinos Are Now America’s Most Important Swing Voters

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“In the 1990s, politicians fought for the support of soccer moms. In the 2010s, they competed for votes from white working-class voters. Now it is clear: Latinos are the most important swing voters of the 2020s,” the New York Times reports.

“Democrats have made gains with Latinos over the past two years, winning back trust with a crucial group of voters who helped fuel President Trump’s return to the White House in 2024. Latino voters now favor Democrats over Republicans by 30 percentage points, according to the latest New York Times/Siena poll.”

Introducing a New Way to Understand the Election

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Nate Cohn: “When the dust settles on election night, the story won’t simply be about who won, but who decided the outcome: Which demographic groups shifted the most, stayed home or delivered the decisive votes to the winners?”

“This year, we’re going to tell the demographic story of the election as we never have before. We will publish a new comprehensive portrait of how each of the key demographic groups in the country voted, called Times Voter Trends. It will break down estimates for the results of U.S. House and Senate elections by age, race, education and gender in every state in the country.”

Obama Slams Vivek Ramaswamy Over Ad

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“Former president Barack Obama said Saturday that Ohio Republican Vivek Ramaswamy showed desperation for the spotlight and a lack of decency by airing a campaign ad that featured the long-estranged mother of his Democratic rival Amy Acton,” the Washington Post reports.

Said Obama: “We’ve seen there’s no line he won’t cross, no low he won’t sink to, to try to get in the limelight.”

He added: “I don’t know what’s happened where the standards of behavior have gotten so low that someone can run an ad like that. There’s got to be something inside you where you say no office is worth stooping that low.”

Mediaite: Joe Manchin slams “vile” Vivek Ramaswamy ad in feisty video.

Another Bonus Quote of the Day

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“After two years of chaos and cruelty and corruption and incompetence, the likes of which we have not seen in the modern era, you get a chance to say, ‘Enough is enough.'”

— Former President Barack Obama, quoted by Agence France-Presse.

Obama Hits Campaign Trail with Harsh Words for Trump

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“Former President Barack Obama harshly criticized President Trump and Republicans in an Ohio rally Saturday, his first appearance at a midterm rally with less than two weeks until Election Day,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

“He appeared alongside Democratic gubernatorial candidate Amy Acton and Senate candidate Sherrod Brown, both of whom are in neck-and-neck races. Brown’s face-off against incumbent Jon Husted, a Republican, could decide the balance of power in the Senate.”

“In a roughly 40-minute appearance, Obama cast Trump as responsible for high prices given his decision to wage war in Iran.”

As AOC’s Ambition Grows, Her Tactics Soften

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Wall Street Journal: “In the eight years since, Ocasio-Cortez has been the one to shift tactics—in ways that would have once seemed unthinkable for the firebrand leftist. The result is a political transformation reflecting real-world lessons about how to win in Washington.”

“The 37-year-old lawmaker has tempered her combative style, cozied up to establishment Democrats and distanced herself from some extreme positions pushed by other Democratic socialists—such as abolishing prisons and the police.”

“Whether or not Ocasio-Cortez decides to run for president in 2028—a much-talked-about possibility she says she is considering—she has tried to broaden the progressive base to include voters whose views don’t traditionally align with the far left, including Black voters and segments of MAHA.”

U.S. and Iran Edge Back Toward Full War

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“Inside the Trump administration, officials are expressing fears that Iran is in the ‘advanced stages’ of planning attacks against U.S. officials,” the New York Times reports.

“More than 6,000 miles away, the Iranians appear convinced that Israel and the United States are preparing to unleash their third major attack in 16 months, a final push to force Iran to surrender to U.S. demands.”

“The conflict in the Middle East has entered a new phase in which a maelstrom of factors, from the political calendars in the United States and Israel to the potential for all sides to be seeking pretexts for action, are creating heightened levels of tension and risk.”

NewsNation: Pentagon drafts Iran attack plans as Tehran threatens aggressive retaliation.

Trump Targets Low Testosterone in Troops

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“The Trump administration is targeting testosterone deficiency as a potential threat to military readiness, rolling out new screening guidelines for male service members amid growing concerns about the health of American men and the shrinking pool of young people qualified to serve,” the New York Post reports.

Bolsonaro and Lula in Dead Heat a Day Before Runoff

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“Flávio Bolsonaro and President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva were statistically tied in a poll released on the eve of Brazil’s runoff election,” Bloomberg reports.

“Bolsonaro had 50.5% support to Lula’s 49.5%, according to the BTG Pactual/Nexus poll, a gap within the 2 percentage-point margin of error and little changed from Monday when the right-wing challenger led by less than a point.”

Democrats Challenge Bid to Block Alaska Certification

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“Democratic groups and voting-rights advocates are seeking to join a federal lawsuit to stop the Justice Department’s effort to prevent Alaska from certifying its U.S. Senate election results if Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan loses,” CNBC reports.

“Together, the groups argue that the executive branch lacks legal authority to intervene in state-run elections and is attempting an unprecedented override of state election administration with early voting already underway.”

Rick Hasen calls the Justice Department lawsuit the “weakest election law complaint ever.”

Hasen has more in Slate: “With just days to go before November’s midterms, the Department of Justice ended this week by launching its most desperate and unprofessional assaults on the American election system yet.”

Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire -- which for more than two decades has been one of the nation's most influential political news sites.

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