A new CNN poll finds Brett Kavanaugh receives a cooler public reception than nearly every Supreme Court nominee for the last four administrations.
“Women are a driving force behind the tepid response, with fewer than three in 10 saying Kavanaugh ought to be confirmed.”
“Overall, 37% of Americans say they’d like to see the Senate vote in favor of his confirmation. Kavanaugh’s support is the lowest in polling dating back to Robert Bork’s nomination by President Ronald Reagan in 1987.”
MSNBC aired audio of a conversation between Omarosa Manigault Newman and Lara Trump, the president’s daughter-in-law, where they discussed a $15,000-a-month salary to work for the campaign as long as she didn’t say anything negative about President Trump.
The offer was made just days after she was fired from her White House job.
Meanwhile, Vanity Fair reports that Trump told advisers that he wants Attorney General Jeff Sessions to have Omarosa arrested.
FiveThirtyEight has launched its House forecast for this year’s midterm elections.
Democrats currently have a 75% chance to win control with an average predicted gain of 35 seats.
ABC News: “But there are a ton of seats in play — FiveThirtyEight rates 112 as at least somewhat competitive — and with more than two months before Election Day, the forecast shows a wide range of potential outcomes.”
“Democrats could quite plausibly gain anywhere from 14 seats to 58 seats… In other words, at this point, it would not be surprising if Democrats fell a few seats short of the majority, or if a “blue wave” swept dozens of Republicans out of office.”
Just published: Run Jane Run: Why Women Are a Natural for Politics & How to Get More of Them Elected by Maria Rodriguez and Liz Samuel Richards.
“President Trump’s military parade this fall is shaping up to cost $80 million more than initially estimated,” CNBC reports.
“The Department of Defense and its interagency partners have updated their perspective cost estimates for the parade… The parade, slated for Nov. 10, is estimated to cost $92 million… An initial estimate last month pegged the prospective cost for the parade at $12 million.”
Heather Long: “First, there’s the Trump factor. This is a personality-driven election. In places where Trump is popular, candidates are focused on acting like Trump’s BFF. In places where he’s not, candidates promote themselves as the anti-Trump. Second, when the economy is good, it takes a back seat. People start thinking of other issues like education, health care and immigration. This is particularly true for the most critical swing group this year: college-educated white women. Third, there’s a noticeable gender gap in how men and women are approaching this election.”
“Still, strategists on both sides tell me they are advising their candidates to talk up the economy more, despite how unusual this year is.”
Former Trump campaign manager Corey Lewandowski told the New York Post that former New York City mayor Michael Bloomberg is the “only one” who would be competitive with Trump in 2020 “because he’s a job creator, has widespread name ID, boundless money and isn’t saddled with Washington baggage.”
Said Lewandowski: “If I were a Democrat strategist… and somebody said to me ‘who do you want to be the Democrat nominee for president of the United States?’ there’s only one name I would choose … and his name is Michael Bloomberg.”
Ainsley Earhardt proudly recalled on Fox & Friends that the U.S. defeated “communist Japan” in World War II while trying to defend America’s greatness.
Said Earhardt: “We defeated communist Japan… We’re the most generous country in all of the world. Yes, we have our faults, but because of this country, this world is definitely a better place. We are great.”
First Read: “Facing a challenging political environment, a Republican president whose approval rating is around 40 percent and an expanding battleground map for control of the House, Republicans are spending their resources — now — on trying to disqualify Democratic candidates.”
Just yesterday, the Congressional Leadership Fund released five different ads hitting Democrats:
David Wasserman: “Only hope for House Republicans to save majority? Disqualify Democratic nominees with nuclear opposition and slug it out race-by-race starting in August and September. And so it begins.”
The Washington Post notes that President Trump “confessed that his true motivation” for revoking former CIA director John Brennan’s security clearance was the Russia investigation.
Said Trump, in an interview with the Wall Street Journal: “I call it the rigged witch hunt; it is a sham. And these people led it! So I think it’s something that had to be done.”
“You could be forgiven for having flashbacks to Trump’s interview with NBC Nightly News anchor Lester Holt in the aftermath of his firing last year of James B. Comey as FBI director. Then, as now, the White House offered a series of motivations for the crackdown on a person who was a liability in the Russia probe. Then, as now, it seemed clear what the actual motivation was. And then, as now, Trump appeared to go out and just admit the actual motivation.”
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President Trump told the Wall Street Journal that he expects Republicans to do “great” in the midterms and that he’ll be a difference-maker this fall by campaigning for candidates.
Said Trump: “As long as I can get out and campaign, I think they’re going to win, I really do. It’s a lot of work for me. I have to make 50 stops, it’s a lot. So, there aren’t a lot of people that can do that, physically. Fortunately, I have no problem with that.”
Asked if his campaign appearances might also mobilize Democratic voters, Mr. Trump said: “It may. But it energizes my people much more than it energizes them. I think the Democrats give up when I turn out. If you want to know the truth, I don’t think it energizes them. I think it de-energizes them. I think they give up when I turn out.”
A new Mehlman poll (D) in Mississippi shows Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith (R-MS) edging challenge Mike Espy (D) 29% to 27%, followed by state Sen. Chris McDaniel (R) at 17%.
The poll also showed Espy led in both runoff scenarios. He led Hyde-Smith 41% to 38%, and finished ahead of McDaniel, 45% to 27%.
The Altantic: “You could list the scandals—from Robert Mueller’s probe to Michael Cohen to Stormy Daniels, from Tom Price to Scott Pruitt to Ben Carson, from Bill Shineto Ronny Jackson to Jared Kushner, from the Trump Hotel to the Trump label, from Charlottesville to Ukraine—and while it would be very long, it would not (at least in the eyes of Trump’s supporters) be disqualifying. Politically speaking, the president is standing with his guns blazing in the middle of Fifth Avenue, and he’s not losing anyone. Miraculously, Trump remains on top; so far this year, Gallup has registered an approval rating among the members of his own party ranging from 81 to 90 percent. Despite it all, those numbers have barely budged.”
“How is such a thing possible? In part, it’s a symptom of contemporary politics—Barack Obama enjoyed similarly high approval ratings from Democratic partisans during his terms in office. And there’s some evidence that Republicans disaffected with Trump are ceasing to identify with their party, leaving only the president’s supporters behind. But Obama never endured a comparable string of scandals; the erosion of the GOP’s ranks doesn’t explain the fervency of those who remain.”
“Is it Trump—or something larger than Trump? Possibly, it’s both.”
John Brennan: “Such a public clarion call certainly makes one wonder what Mr. Trump privately encouraged his advisers to do — and what they actually did — to win the election. While I had deep insight into Russian activities during the 2016 election, I now am aware — thanks to the reporting of an open and free press — of many more of the highly suspicious dalliances of some American citizens with people affiliated with the Russian intelligence services.”
“Mr. Trump’s claims of no collusion are, in a word, hogwash.”
“The only questions that remain are whether the collusion that took place constituted criminally liable conspiracy, whether obstruction of justice occurred to cover up any collusion or conspiracy, and how many members of ‘Trump Incorporated’ attempted to defraud the government by laundering and concealing the movement of money into their pockets.”
Politico: “There’s a new way of demonstrating loyalty to Donald Trump and his Republican Party: Claiming that the president could not only survive an impeachment effort, but that it would guarantee his victory in 2020.”
“The idea gaining currency on the right is that Trump can be Bill Clinton, not Richard Nixon. It depends on a delicate political calculation – that a Republican-held Senate would never follow a Democratic House and vote to remove Trump, and that voters tired of the long-running Russia scandal will, as they did in the late 1990s with Clinton’s Monica Lewinsky scandal, just want to move on.”
Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Wonk Wire, Political Job Hunt and the Political Dictionary.
Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.
Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.
Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.
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