Donald Trump is polling at 48% in Iowa, maintaining a wide lead over his two main rivals for the Republican presidential nomination, according to the Des Moines Register/NBC News/Mediacom poll.
The latest poll shows that Nikki Haley has moved into second with 20% support, ahead of Ron DeSantis with 16%.
Dan Balz: “Trump could become the first Republican to win an outright majority of the vote in a multicandidate caucus. With two asterisks, the closest any candidate — Republican or Democrat — has come to a majority was in the 1984 Democratic caucus, when Walter F. Mondale captured 49 percent of the vote to Gary Hart’s 17 percent.”
“(The asterisks: Tom Harkin won 76 percent in the 1992 caucuses, but only because the other Democratic candidates had ceded Iowa to him because he was a popular senator from the state. In 2000, Al Gore won 63 percent, but that was a two-person race, against Bill Bradley.)…”
“The focus for the next few days will be on Iowa and on three storylines: Can Trump’s organization attract a big influx of first-time caucus goers and deliver a huge victory? Can Haley finally surpass DeSantis for second place — and, if she does, can she finish at all close to Trump? Can DeSantis, who has put everything into Iowa, prove wrong all those who say his campaign has been such a mess that he could soon be written off?”
“Trump’s team is reluctant to entertain questions about his performance, other than to show confidence that his margin of victory will be bigger than Dole’s in 1988. They hesitate to talk about the consequences of a closer-than-expected finish or to set expectations too high. But should the former president, who dominates his party, be satisfied finishing with less than a majority of the vote here?”
“John F. Kerry, who has served as the U.S. special climate envoy for nearly three years, will leave the Biden administration by the spring,” the Washington Post reports.
Congressional leaders are considering a stopgap funding bill that would extend spending authority until March 1 for part of the government and March 8 for the rest, Punchbowl News reports.
The approach would leave intact Speaker Mike Johnson’s “laddered” government funding.
The leadership is also considering bumping the deadlines back to March 8 and March 15.
“Like a goalie on a dart team.”
— Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX), quoted by the Wall Street Journal, describing Sen. Jim Lankford’s (R-OK) role in negotiating a bipartisan immigration deal.
“Former President Trump — who for months has appeared to be coasting to a big win in Iowa’s caucuses — is showing signs of worry ahead of Monday night’s voting,” Axios reports.
“Trump is escalating his attacks on Nikki Haley and imploring his supporters to brave Monday’s wickedly cold weather to vote as if he’s trailing in the polls.”
“It’s the latest indication of urgency from the former president, who now sees his former UN ambassador as his chief threat in the Hawkeye State and beyond.”
Nate Silver: “Let me state this extremely carefully: emotionally, I’ve accepted this (Trump 2.0) as the default outcome. Rationally, I don’t.”
“If we do get a Trump-Biden rematch, I think the odds are roughly 50/50. And there’s an outside chance that the next president is someone other than those two. Both Trump and Biden are extremely old. Haley’s prospects are poor but not so poor that you can round them down to zero. A third-party win is extremely unlikely but maybe you’d take a flier on one at +5000 or something.”
“The odds on who wins the presidency probably ought to be something like: Trump 45%, Biden 45%, other 10%. So if you were offered a bet on Trump at even money you’d turn it down, I suppose. (At prediction markets, Trump’s chances are 41 percent, not far from my subjective estimate.)”
It’s going to be an extremely busy year in politics so get yourself a Political Wire membership at 20% off.
New Yorker: “Absenteeism has nearly doubled since the pandemic. With state and federal governments largely abdicating any role in getting kids back into classrooms, some schools have turned to private companies for a reimagined version of the truant officer.”
Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro (D) called Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu “one of the worst leaders of all time,” saying he is steering Israel in the “wrong direction,” Bloomberg reports.
Al-Monitor: “The group — calling itself Feds United for Peace — consists of dozens of government employees who will be observing a ‘Day of Mourning’ to mark 100 days of Israel’s military campaign in Gaza.”
“The organizers, who are choosing to remain anonymous, say they expect ‘easily hundreds’ of others to join in their walkout after securing commitments from individuals at 22 federal agencies.”
New York Times: “Those who know DeSantis describe him as intensely private, averse to personal braggadocio and more comfortable with policy than with people. He believes deeply that Republican voters do — or should — care about his conservative bona fides and his accomplishments as governor more than his life story and personality…”
“Mr. DeSantis’s reluctance to tell his own story has allowed him to be defined by others, especially Mr. Trump, who has cast him as awkward and weak. And it has made him seem bloodless in comparison with Ms. Haley.”
Sen. Mike Lee (R-UT) endorsed Donald Trump for President.
Said Lee: “Whether you like Trump or not, Americans face a binary choice. Biden refuses to enforce our border, prosecutes his opponents, & embraces policies that make life unaffordable for hardworking Americans. I’ll take the mean tweets. I choose Trump.”
“Political operatives have long said having a robust organizational effort that can turn out supporters on a cold winter night is critical for success in Iowa’s presidential caucuses,” the Wall Street Journal reports.
“This year’s weather is taking the cold part to the extreme: Forecasts call for the lowest temperatures ever for an event that dates back to the 1970s. That could put a dent in turnout, especially among older voters, for the first 2024 Republican nomination balloting.”
“Taiwan looks set to elect Lai Ching-te as its next leader after the main opposition candidate conceded, lining up a man Beijing has labeled an ‘instigator of war’ for the presidency,” Bloomberg reports.
“The Kuomintang’s Hou Yu-ih congratulated Lai for his victory on Saturday evening in Taipei, and apologized for disappointing his voters, in an effective admission of defeat. The KMT is China’s preferred negotiating partner and Hou had vowed to restart talks with President Xi Jinping’s government if elected.”
“At least three people were hospitalized after mistakenly eating colorful pods of liquid laundry detergent that were distributed as a campaign freebie in Taiwan’s presidential race,” the AP reports.
“One of the victims said she thought the pods were candy.”
“Democrats began the search last summer, fanning out through the northern swing states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania to find the nurses, electricians, farmers and floor installers who could best testify to the danger of Donald Trump returning to power,” the Washington Post reports.
“The previously unreported project by the outside group American Bridge 21st Century developed 732 leads, conducted 472 interviews and then filmed about 50 voters who will anchor a $140 million ad campaign starting this spring, aimed at reminding women and working-class voters why they voted against Trump in 2020, according to the group’s leaders.”
Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.
Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.
Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.
Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.
Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.
