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Political Influencers Caught in Sting

November 2, 2026 · 2:02 pm ET · Leave a Comment

News Guard: “In October 2026, a consulting firm called R&H Strategies emailed 60 online political influencers with varying numbers of followers offering up to $2,000 to post a one-minute TikTok video supporting the positions of a congressional candidate. There was one condition: The influencers could not tell their viewers that they had been paid to create the video.”

“Twenty-one influencers replied that they were interested in the deal, voicing no objections to the condition. Five declined the offer…”

“In fact, R&H Strategies is not a real firm. NewsGuard created it to test how readily political influencers would pass off paid campaign messaging as their own work.”

Trump Hasn’t Made Any Personal Campaign Donations

November 2, 2026 · 1:48 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“President Donald Trump hasn’t spent a penny of his 10-figure wealth to boost fellow Republicans this cycle,” the Washington Sun reports.

“A Washington Sun review of Federal Election Commission records indicates Trump hasn’t donated to any candidate committee, national party committee or super PAC during the 2026 election cycle, through Oct. 14.”

“There’s no public indication that Trump, who’s grown significantly richer during his second presidential term, has contributed his own money since then, either.”

The Racism Scam

November 2, 2026 · 1:18 pm ET · Leave a Comment

Adam Serwer: “Faced with flagging numbers over an unpopular and unnecessary war in Iran, inflation exacerbated by tariffs, lawless immigration enforcement, and corruption, Republicans have gone back to basics for their closing message: stoking hatred against minority groups.”

“The Michigan Senate campaign between Republican Mike Rogers and Democrat Abdul El-Sayed has been particularly ugly. Rogers has accused El-Sayed—without any evidence—of being ‘bought off by the Muslim Brotherhood.’ At a recent rally, J. D. Vance said El-Sayed harbored ‘anti-white racial hate,’ and President Trump called him a ‘jihadist’ who would need to go through a ‘metal detector’ to enter the Senate. The only time in recent memory that the Senate was subject to political violence, it is worth noting, is when Trump himself incited an attack on it.”

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A Few Thoughts on the Haley Stevens Fiasco

November 2, 2026 · 12:55 pm ET · Leave a Comment

Talking PointsSeveral readers have asked about Rep. Haley Stevens rescinding her endorsement of Abdul El-Sayed for U.S. Senate — and then endorsing Mike Rogers.

The distinction between those two decisions is the entire story.

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Musk’s Dark Money May Not Be Enough to Swing Texas

November 2, 2026 · 12:50 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“For months, Republicans have known they have one shot at preventing a blue wave in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democrats has an advantage in polling, in public opinion, in candidate profiles, and voter mobilization. But the GOP, as it so often does, has the money,” Rolling Stone reports.

“‘Musk will spend the money,’ one Republican fundraiser told me a few weeks back, waving off the growing threat of James Talarico flipping one of Texas’ two Senate seats blue. He wasn’t wrong: In the 2026 cycle, Republican megadonor Elon Musk dropped more than $400 million into races nationwide, with $158 million of that going toward= super PACs supporting Talarico’s opponent, Texas’ scandal-prone Attorney General Ken Paxton.”

“But now, on the eve of the election, Democratic consultants think that Musk’s best shot at taking them out of the race failed to land. The dark money, they say, doesn’t seem to have buried Talarico — and other candidates around the country also seem to be holding their own in the face of an onslaught of conservative spending.”

Two Most Effective Democrats of Midterms Aren’t On Ballot

November 2, 2026 · 12:23 pm ET · Leave a Comment

“Neither Pete Buttigieg nor Sen. Rafael Warnock of Georgia are on the ballot this year, but both have been all over the campaign trail, stumping for candidates across the country ahead of Tuesday’s midterm elections,” Time reports.

“Democratic operatives say they are two of the most in-demand boosters this cycle. While the likes of Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York are surefire base pleasers and former Presidents Barack Obama and Bill Clinton are draws for legacy Democrats, Warnock and Buttigieg offer an efficient and plain-spoken manner that admirers say cuts across ideologies and generations.”

Democrats Favored to Capture House and Senate

November 2, 2026 · 12:19 pm ET · Leave a Comment

Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: “Our final ratings of the 2026 midterm show Democrats favored to easily win the House of Representatives.”

“The more interesting fight is in the Senate. After exiling Senate Democrats from red states in 2024, capturing all 50 Senate seats in the 25 states that voted for Trump all three times he was on the ballot, Republicans appear to be in serious jeopardy of squandering the Senate edge they just so recently secured.”

“At the start of the cycle, we wrote that Democrats netting two Senate seats in 2026 would be a good result for them, narrowing the Senate to a 51-49 Republican edge and teeing up a competitive race for the majority in 2028. Such a result now would be a success not for Democrats, but for Republicans, who now appear to be underdogs in the lion’s share of key races at the center of the Senate map.”

Does Morris Katz Know What Working-Class Voters Want?

November 2, 2026 · 11:57 am ET · Leave a Comment

The Atlantic: “The 27-year-old strategist played a key role in the Graham Platner fiasco. Now the midterms could hinge on his theory of politics.”

Trump Asks Justices to Hear California Ballot Appeal

November 2, 2026 · 11:50 am ET · Leave a Comment

“The Trump administration on Monday asked the Supreme Court to take its appeal in a case where it has unsuccessfully sought to block California from counting the mail-in ballots of about 20,000 voters whom the Department of Justice suggests may not be U.S. citizens,” CNBC reports.

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It’s Getting Harder to Bet Against a Democratic Wave

November 2, 2026 · 11:23 am ET · Leave a Comment

Talking PointsThe Senate map moved sharply toward Democrats over the final week of the midterm campaign.

Democrats have gained in the polls across nearly every key Senate race.

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Trump’s Voting Threats Loom

November 2, 2026 · 11:21 am ET · Leave a Comment

“One of the biggest wildcards left in the midterm election (aside from Haley Stevens) has little to do with candidates or campaigns,” Bloomberg reports.

“It’s the question of how Donald Trump responds to a close finish, and if his administration tries to put its finger on the scale in drawn-out counts — especially if control of the Senate comes down to a narrow result.”

“While it’s unclear what, if anything, Trump may do, he has laid the groundwork to challenge the outcome — signaling the next phase of the campaign could be in court.”

Judge Dismisses Charges Against FBI Agents

November 2, 2026 · 11:20 am ET · Leave a Comment

“A federal magistrate judge on Monday dismissed a criminal case against two former FBI officials who were accused of lying to Congress in 2023 about Hunter Biden’s laptop,” the Washington Post reports.

“U.S. Magistrate Judge Zia M. Faruqui said the Justice Department had failed to show probable cause that the two former FBI officials, Nikki Floris and Bradley Benavides, made false statements to the House Judiciary Committee as it investigated President Joe Biden’s son in the lead-up to the 2024 presidential election.”

Said Faruqui: “What has transpired here cannot be described as anything other than weaponization.”

Schumer’s Leadership Hopes Run Through the Midterms

November 2, 2026 · 10:57 am ET · Leave a Comment

“Chuck Schumer is about to find out what his path to keeping power looks like,” Politico reports.

“If Democrats win a Senate majority in Tuesday’s midterms, pulling off what was once seen as a longshot feat, senators and aides across the caucus agree the New Yorker is a shoo-in to return as top leader — rebuffing critics who have lambasted how he has handled President Donald Trump.”

“‘Schumer delivering a Democratic Senate certainly justifies another term as leader,’ said Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI), capturing the consensus sentiment.”

“But if Democrats fail to meet their recently expanded expectations, Schumer could be in for a bumpier path back to power.”

Haley Stevens Is Sending the Wrong Message

November 2, 2026 · 10:52 am ET · Leave a Comment

Jonathan Chait: “Haley Stevens nearly won the Democratic nomination for Senate in Michigan in August, then immediately endorsed the winner, Abdul El-Sayed. She has spent the months since then vacillating, expressing doubts about his campaign while maintaining her support. But last week, her fiancé said that he intends to vote for El-Sayed’s opponent, Mike Rogers, and now she has followed, endorsing the Republican just two days before the election.”

“Stevens’s dramatic reversal met with immediate cries of opportunism or political stupidity. But Stevens seems instead to be following through on a principled objection to El-Sayed’s rhetoric and associations that threaten the state’s Jewish population. The trouble is that her application of those principles is misguided, undermining the values she claims to uphold. Before this weekend, Stevens could credibly accuse El-Sayed of overlooking the bigotry of his allies out of political expedience. Now she, too, is guilty of that very sin.”

Oligarchy Is On the Ballot

November 2, 2026 · 10:27 am ET · Leave a Comment

Paul Krugman: “Donald Trump has urged voters to pretend that he’s on the ballot in the midterm elections. Given his historic unpopularity, his opponents can only hope that people take his advice. And the polls, which show Republicans almost certain to lose the House and likely to lose the Senate, suggest that Democrats are getting their wish.”

“Voters should also know, however, that Trump isn’t alone in de facto being on the ballot. America’s oligarchs — a tiny group of almost inconceivably wealthy people — also have a huge stake in this election. The Democratic Party isn’t ideologically monolithic, but it’s basically a center-left party that will be much less favorable to plutocrats than the GOP. And because they rushed to prostrate themselves at Trump’s feet after the 2024 election, many of the oligarchs may find themselves personally in the crosshairs if a Democratic Congress begins serious hearings on Trumpian corruption.”

“Fearing this outcome, the oligarchs have been pouring money into the midterm elections, in an all-out effort to limit the size of the blue wave.”

RNC Chair Expects ‘Some Big Surprises’ On Election Day

November 2, 2026 · 10:14 am ET · Leave a Comment

“With less than 24 hours until Election Day and control of Congress at stake, Republican National Convention Chairman Joe Gruters believes some ‘big surprises’ are coming,” NewsNation reports.

10 Candidates Who Could Make History in the Midterms

November 2, 2026 · 10:12 am ET · Leave a Comment

Time: “It’s the most expensive election cycle in U.S. history in terms of political ad spending, with more than $11 billion expected to be spent… States have redrawn congressional maps between censuses at a rate the National Conference of State Legislatures says has not been seen since the 1800s, as parties try to secure victories. And Donald Trump has an historically low approval rating for a President heading into the midterms.”

“This election is also set to see massive turnover on Capitol Hill, with dozens of members of Congress resigning, retiring, or seeking other office.”

“Depending on the results, it could see a number of identity barriers broken, too. A record 26 women are vying for Governor posts across the country… A handful of candidates for Congress could also become national historic firsts if they win.”

It Won’t Be a Blue Tsunami. It’ll Be an Orange Crush.

November 2, 2026 · 10:05 am ET · Leave a Comment

William. Kristol: “We are on the cusp of a thoroughgoing defeat for Donald Trump, his administration, and his party. That is not something we could have taken for granted. On key occasions over the last decade, we’ve fallen short. In 2018, Democrats picked up forty-one seats and flipped the House—but Republicans gained two senate seats and strengthened their hold on that body. In 2020, Trump was defeated, but not in a landslide, and Republicans gained thirteen House seats. Then, following the insurrection and Trump’s impeachment, the Senate failed to convict him. And while Democrats did relatively well in the 2022 midterms, Republicans still managed to regain the House.”

“And about 2024, the less said the better.”

“In other words: Since Trump entered national politics in 2015, there’s never been a decisive electoral repudiation of him. This year looks likely to be that.”

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Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire -- which for more than two decades has been one of the nation's most influential political news sites.

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