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Just dropped · Trial Balloon · Ep. 193

The Magnificent Seven

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Trial Balloon · Ep. 193: The Magnificent Seven

Super PAC Army Spends Millions On ‘Spoiler’ Candidates

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Washington Sun: “In the past two weeks, a collection of super PACs have together spent more than $15 million boosting outsider congressional candidates with little chance of winning — but who could peel enough votes away from the Republican or Democratic candidate to sway the election.”

“Voters won’t learn who’s bankrolling many of the outside spending groups until after the election. That’s because the last financial disclosure reports due to the FEC before Election Day cover super PAC financials only up to Oct. 14, and some of these super PACs reported no income prior to that date.”

Prediction Markets Keep Whiffing On Elections

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Wall Street Journal: “After exploding in popularity this year, prediction markets are heading into Tuesday’s midterm elections in the U.S. looking to stake their claim as the antidote to years of failures by pollsters to capture accurate estimates on electorates around the globe.”

“But results this year are showing big surprises. In Brazil, Serbia and Wisconsin, elections which all polled as high as 90% for one candidate, were upset by their supposed long shots. At both Kalshi and its rival Polymarket, traders appear to have gotten it wrong on the next Israeli prime minister—and three days after the polls closed, they still can’t agree.”

D.C. and Virginia Sue to Block Trump’s Triumphal Arch

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“The D.C. government and the commonwealth of Virginia sued Saturday to block construction of President Donald Trump’s planned triumphal arch, calling it a ‘flagrantly unlawful’ project that will forever change the landscape of the nation’s capital,” the Washington Post reports.

“The lawsuit is the latest attempt to stop the 250-foot-tall arch, which Trump hopes to build near Arlington National Cemetery and says will commemorate the nation’s 250th birthday. The administration would like to begin construction as soon as next week.”

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Republicans Lead in Key Florida Races

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A new Stetson University’s Center for Public Opinion Research (CPOR) poll in Florida finds Byron Donalds (R) leading David Jolly (D) in the governor’s race, 51% to 45%.

Florida Governor’s Race
Byron Donalds (R) 51%
 
David Jolly (D) 45%
 
Stetson University’s Center for Public Opinion Research (CPOR) poll · likely voters · ±3.6%
Florida Senate Race
Ashley Moody (R) 49%
 
Angie Nixon (D) 45%
 
Stetson University’s Center for Public Opinion Research (CPOR) poll · likely voters · ±3.6%

States Not Ready for Medicaid Work Requirements

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“With a looming Jan. 1 deadline for states to implement Medicaid work requirements, some state officials are warning that they won’t be ready,” Politico reports.

“Some, like Louisiana, still don’t know how to verify which low-income residents deserve to keep their health insurance because they’re enrolled in school.”

“Others, like Missouri, have no way to automatically verify who has a medical condition that prevents them from working, meaning they will have to demand doctors’ notes or other proof from thousands of enrollees.”

“And still others, like Colorado, say they’ve only been able to automatically check the health and work status of a little over half of adults who get their insurance through Obamacare’s Medicaid expansion. That means they will have to request paperwork from the remaining 175,000 people.”

Extra Bonus Quote of the Day

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“I watched this total dope — Ro Khanna — Fox puts him on all the time. You know, Fox is giving Democrats more time than they give Republicans. “I’m working my ass off. I’m doing rallies, and I come back, and I watch the opponent of the person I did the rally for. I’m not happy.”

— President Trump, quoted by Mediaite.

The Alaska Senate Race Could Be Slow to Decide

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“After Election Day, all eyes in the political world could turn to Alaska,” CNN reports.

“Alaska has already been at the center of a roiling political controversy this week over how the second Dan Sullivan ended up on the state’s Senate ballot, which has sparked lawsuits, criminal investigations and threats to block certification of the election if incumbent GOP Sen. Dan Sullivan is defeated by Democrat Mary Peltola.”

“But the uproar about the Alaska Senate race could ratchet up to 11 if control of the Senate comes down to who wins in the state, one that election officials and experts say is unlike any other when it comes to voting.”

“That’s because it might take two weeks before a winner can be determined.”

Texas Democrats See Data Centers as a Winning Issue

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“Rural Texas voters have overwhelmingly backed Republicans for decades, but this year Democrats are hoping that voter opposition to data centers could give them a chance to unseat the Republican governor,” ABC News reports.

“The Democratic candidate in that race, state Rep. Gina Hinojosa, has made opposition to data center construction a central part of her race against Gov. Greg Abbott. That race has become competitive for a state that hasn’t elected a Democratic governor since Ann Richards in 1990.”

A Historically Paralyzed Congress Faces Its Voters

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“Next week’s elections are widely seen as a referendum on President Trump, his team and his party, with most voters telling pollsters they seek a check on his power. But the midterms will also serve as a reckoning for one of the least productive sessions of Congress in a century,” the Los Angeles Times reports.

“A stunningly low 10% of Americans approve of the job performance of Congress, which has passed fewer bills and conducted less oversight than any of its predecessors in modern history, according to scholars of the legislative branch.”

U.S. Cancels G20 ‘Family Photo’

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“The traditional ‘family photo’ to open the G20 foreign ministers’ meeting has been abruptly cancelled in the U.S. after a host of nations – including Australia and the UK – refused to appear beside the Russian foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov,” The Guardian reports.

“The U.S. secretary of state, Marco Rubio, pulled the plug after several European officials, the UK and Australia made it known they would boycott or walk out of the snapshot that often kicks off such international gatherings.”

The Polls Have Been Unusually Similar

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Washington Post: “In 13 of the 27 races we looked at, including the Senate races in Maine and Texas, there’s less variation among polls than we would normally expect.”

“One possible reason is that pollsters are correcting their samples in similar ways. As it has gotten harder to reach voters who rarely participate in elections, many pollsters now ask people who they voted for in 2024 — then adjust the poll so its mix of Trump and Harris voters looks like the 2024 electorate. That can make polls look alike even if they reached different groups of people.”

Trump Plans Burst of Tele-Rallies

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“President Trump is entering the final weekend of the midterms campaign with a push to boost Republican turnout, planning several tele-rallies on Saturday afternoon before he addresses supporters in person Sunday in Kansas and Iowa,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

Trump and GOP Close Midterms with Ugly Personal Attacks

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New York Times: “Facing a backlash over rising prices and working to overcome the president’s deep unpopularity, Republicans across the country have tarred their opponents with false, inflammatory and deeply personal attacks in the final stretch of the midterm election.”

“In many cases, they are following the lead of a president who has repeatedly rewritten the rules of acceptable discourse in American politics. Many of the attacks have drawn little pushback from within the party, but some Republicans say they are concerned by the trend.”

Mother Jones: The final countdown: MAGA’s racist blitz and Trump’s next big lie.

Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard

Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire -- which for more than two decades has been one of the nation's most influential political news sites.

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