“The U.S. and Canada are ‘very close’ to settling their tariff standoff, according to the White House,” the New York Post reports.
Said White House National Economic Council director Kevin Hassett: “The negotiations have picked up; they’re gathering steam.”
Nate Silver: “Most analysts seem to have little to no confidence in the polling, but maybe they should. Polls in the past two midterms were pretty accurate and unbiased. More important, they may not be projecting anything all that remarkable. ‘Waves’ are very normal in the midterms and almost the default outcome.”
“You might expect a bigger-than-average wave given Trump’s approval numbers, gas prices, Iran and Epstein. I could absolutely see the polls being wrong again, especially in the Midwest, where they have overestimated Democrats in the past. But polling error can run either way; I could imagine Republican turnout collapsing, giving Democrats an even bigger rout.”
“Republicans spurned by President Donald Trump aren’t interested in rescuing their would-be replacements,” Politico reports.
“Instead, a growing number of retiring or ousted GOP incumbents from Nevada to North Carolina are sitting those races out, and in some cases, openly bucking their own party.”
Limited-time offer
Members get Talking Points analysis, Trending News, the Polling Dashboard, the Trial Balloon podcast, new site features and no ads. Start your free trial
Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: “Virginia Democrats tried to gerrymander the Old Dominion this year in a bid to flip four U.S. House seats.”
“The effort failed, but Democrats remain politically ascendant in Virginia.”
“On the current House map, Democrats still have identified four targets, and they could plausibly win as many as three of them.”
“The Justice Department announced charges against 48 people in five states on charges related to election crimes, including illegal voting and fraudulent voter registration,” NewsNation reports.
“The charges come just days before the midterm elections, as the Trump administration continues efforts to prosecute illegal voting. The president has cast voting by noncitizens as a major problem in elections, though data shows that it is extremely rare.”
The Atlantic: “The government still purports—on faded billboards, in party speeches—to meet all of the material and spiritual needs of its citizens, but it is now bankrupt in every sense. Almost no one believes in the system anymore, and many, especially outside Havana, behave as if the government simply does not exist.”
Foreign Policy: “In broad strokes, there are three options. First, ramp the war back up. Some—including U.S. President Donald Trump—have floated the idea of returning to a full-scale bombing campaign similar to what we saw during the conflict’s initial phase. Others have proposed escalating the war, for example by using ground forces to seize Iranian territory.”
“At the other end of the spectrum lies a second option: The United States could walk away from the conflict. Even Republican supporters of the Trump administration have increasingly called for an end to the war.”
“The third option is to stay the current course: Maintain the blockade and economic pressure campaign, respond with force when Iran or its proxies strike U.S. or partner targets, and push for negotiations that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end the Iranian nuclear program. Of the three options, this may be the least satisfying; it almost certainly will not bring quick results. But it is strategically prudent.”
“House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries inched closer to calling for embattled Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s impeachment over the weekend, pledging to take action if President Donald Trump doesn’t remove him,” Politico reports.
Said Jeffries: “It means that we’re going to hold him accountable in the same way that we held Pam Bondi and Kristi Noem accountable. And Pete Hegseth needs to be pushed aside by the president, or we’re going to have to deal with that situation if he is not.”
“A federal judge on Monday said that the Department of Justice’s firing of New York federal prosecutor Maurene Comey last year was unlawful,” CNBC reports.
“Judge Jesse Furman also ordered that Comey, who is the daughter of former FBI director James Comey, be retroactively reinstated to her job as an assistant United States attorney in the Southern District of New York.”
Nick Miroff: “Donald Trump won big in Texas’s Rio Grande Valley in 2024—but now Latino voters are turning on him.”
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth “has been angling for Sen. Marsha Blackburn to appoint him to her Senate seat, if she becomes Tennessee governor, sparing him a potential impeachment trial,” Puck reports.
“Anthropic is warning investors that it may continue to be a target of the Trump administration as it seeks one of the biggest IPOs in history — and that it has no plans of changing its behavior,” Axios reports.
“The filing doesn’t name the president or his administration specifically, but the subtext is clear. Anthropic outlines the risk of being ‘disproportionately or selectively targeted’ due to its positions on AI safety.”
Member feature
This newsletter comes with membership
Members get Inside Elections and Ballot Access News — a $267 value — along with everything else on Political Wire.
Already a member? Sign in
“Argentine President Javier Milei was the only South American leader who, by Monday morning, had yet to recognize Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s victory in Brazil’s election, echoing the silence of U.S. President Donald Trump,” Bloomberg reports.
“French President Emmanuel Macron pledged to prevent more rioting and looting by maintaining a heightened security presence and tasking his government to respond to some of the protesters’ demands,” Bloomberg reports.
Said Macron: “It’s not normal that six months before a presidential election, our country should be in such a state of turmoil.”
“Hundreds of enthusiastic Democrats gathered at Balloon Fiesta Park in Albuquerque on Saturday to hear from two United States senators who are considering runs for president, marking New Mexico’s first step into the 2028 Democratic presidential primary as a newly crowned early primary state,” the Albuquerque Journal reports.
“The Democratic National Committee in August moved New Mexico’s Democratic presidential primary to Feb. 15, 2028, making it the fourth primary to be held in the country. Previous New Mexico primaries took place in June, often well after the party’s nominee had emerged.”
“I can tell you that decency is on the ballot in this election.”
— Ohio gubernatorial candidate Amy Acton (D), interviewed by MS NOW, on rival Vivek Ramaswamy’s (R) controversial attack ad featuring her estranged mother.
“For 55 years, Bob Woodward has unearthed some of Washington’s deepest secrets. Now the legendary reporter is exposing a trove of his own,” the Washington Post reports.
“During his long career as a Washington Post journalist and blockbuster author, Woodward zealously protected many confidential sources who helped him uncover the Watergate scandal and penetrate the enigmatic sides of every president since Richard M. Nixon. For three decades, Woodward famously safeguarded the identity of Deep Throat, the most guessed-about anonymous source ever, until former deputy FBI director Mark Felt outed himself at his family’s urging in a 2005 Vanity Fair article.”
“Today, with many of Woodward’s other key sources deceased, the 83-year-old writer has decided to pull back the curtain and reveal who helped him score many of his monumental scoops. In doing so, he draws on a vast hoard of notes, memos, transcripts and other documents that he collected over the years.”
Taegan Goddard
Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire -- which for more than two decades has been one of the nation's most influential political news sites.
More about Taegan Goddard →
