A new CNN poll in Michigan finds Abdul El-Sayed (D) leading Mike Rogers (R) in the U.S. Senate race, 49% to 42%.

The same poll in Texas finds James Talarico (D) leading Ken Paxton (R) in the U.S. Senate race, 49% to 43%.

The same poll in Maine finds Troy Jackson (D) leading Susan Collins (R) in the U.S. Senate race, 49% to 45%.

The same poll in Kansas finds Adam Hamilton (D) leading Roger Marshall (R) in the U.S. Senate race, 49% to 45%.

Nate Cohn: “There’s no formal definition of a ‘wave’ election, but by some measures a blue wave appears all but inevitable.”

“Whether a big wave translates into a large Democratic House majority and Democratic control of the Senate is a very different question. Republicans have major structural advantages that give them a chance to avoid major losses, even if a big blue wave comes ashore. Under some scenarios, Republicans might even feel like the winners.”

“If the Democratic Party’s strength can be thought of as a growing blue wave, the Republican Party’s advantage is that its House members and especially its senators are already far uphill. The big question isn’t whether a big wave is forming, but whether it will be large enough to overwhelm those Republicans standing on high ground.”

Wall Street Journal: “As Texans head to the polls to decide some of the nation’s most closely watched races, Latino voters—who helped propel Trump’s return to the White House in 2024—once again could play a decisive role, this time in determining whether Democrats win majorities in the House and Senate.”

“A recent Wall Street Journal poll found a majority of Latino voters picking a Democrat for Congress over a Republican, 53% to 35%. On Trump’s job approval among Latinos, only 26% approve while 68% disapprove—significantly lower than his approval of 37% with voters overall, the poll found.”

“President Donald Trump decried critics of Ohio Republican gubernatorial candidate Vivek Ramaswamy over a provocative campaign ad that threatens to damage the party’s midterm election prospects,” Bloomberg reports.

“But Trump made clear he had no intention of trying to move past the furor, repeating the claims made in the video despite misgivings from many in his own party.”

Mediaite: New internal polling shows Vivek Ramaswamy’s campaign sinking after controversial ad.

“One woman at a rally in New Jersey told me last week that she was ‘nauseously optimistic.’ That may capture a lot of people’s last-minute jitters.”

— Rep. Jamie Raskin (D-MD), quoted by Axios, on what Democrats feel ahead of the midterm elections.