The Guardian: “Despite Donald Trump spending the last few weeks touting the good looks of Republican midterm candidates, praising asses, shoulders and jawlines, almost all of his roster of ‘handsome’ and ‘beautiful’ men lost their elections on Tuesday, while the Trump-approved hot guys who did win mostly limped over the line.”
Just dropped · Trial Balloon · Ep. 194
What Just Happened?
Trial Balloon · Ep. 194: What Just Happened?
Trump’s ‘War-Time Consigliere’ and the Miller Doctrine
“Stephen Miller is no Susie Wiles: He believes in almost limitless presidential power, considers the Democratic Party an extremist organization, and dreams of ruthless crackdowns on immigration and foreign adversaries,” Axios reports.
“Miller, the new White House chief of staff, isn’t just unlike anyone who’s had the job under Trump — he’s unlike any to occupy the powerful position in the modern era. He puts the hard in hard-liner and understands how to pull the levers of power to get his way and make the U.S. government a MAGA machine.”
The Guardian: Trump faces criticism for “dangerous” Stephen Miller appointment as White House chief of staff.
What the Democratic Wave Means for 2028
“In surfer slang, a wave that lasts a long time is a ‘runner.’ A key question for investors is whether the blue wave that washed over the country Tuesday was that kind of wave, and could it ferry Democrats to victory in 2028,” CNBC reports.
“Statistically, the answer is it should have little effect.”
“CNBC analyzed elections since 1938 and looked at the biggest midterm wave elections where the party in the White House lost seats to determine whether they portend anything about the presidential election two years later.”
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South Carolina Republicans Fracture Over Stunning Upset
“As Republicans sift through the wreckage of a historic midterm drubbing, one state has especially rankled them: South Carolina,” the New York Times reports.
“It was among the most conservative states to elect a Democratic senator in a sea of upsets on Tuesday, prompting some state Republicans to hunt for strategic errors beyond the difficult national environment that might have contributed to their loss of a critical seat.”
“In public and private, Republican operatives, aides and elected officials have torn into each other over who is at fault for the election of the state’s first Democratic senator since 1998.”
The Guardian: Democrats start plotting as civil war breaks out among Republicans.
Another Bonus Quote of the Day
“If it wasn’t for President Trump the United States of America would not exist right now. This man saved America. He saved our military from collapse. He saved our economy from destruction. He saved our border from annihilation. He saved our country from threats at home and abroad which would have been the end of the American dream for ever.”
— Stephen Miller, quoted by The Guardian, pledging “total devotion” to President Trump.
Trump Weighs Labeling Nonprofits as Terror Linked
“The Trump administration is considering an executive order that would list some nonprofit organizations as having terrorist ties, a move that would suspend their tax-exempt status immediately and could cripple their operations,” the Wall Street Journal reports.
“Trump officials have been working for months on the order, according to people familiar with the matter. The order is still being deliberated and may end up not being finalized or signed by Trump, the people said.”
“Such an executive order would use an untested tax code section and escalate the administration’s scrutiny of tax-exempt groups, possibly targeting some of Trump’s antagonists and political opponents.”
Extra Bonus Quote of the Day
“Here’s the problem with the red meat: It becomes an addiction. Once you go there and you put that out there, then you’re forced to defend it. So what do they do? They double down. They triple down again.”
— Sen.-elect Abdul El-Sayed (D), quoted by the Washington Post, on Republicans relying on anti-Muslim attacks in the Michigan U.S. Senate race.
The Epstein Election and the End of MAGA
Sarah Fitzpatrick: “The president’s decision to go to war with Iran and the resulting spike in gas prices may have been the front-of-mind issues for most voters in the 2026 midterms. But members of Congress, pollsters, political operatives, and campaign staff all told me that Trump’s mishandling of the Epstein issue meaningfully contributed to the GOP’s drubbing.”
“The Republican pollster and strategist Brent Buchanan told me that Epstein became ‘a proxy for corruption’ in the midterms. Another Republican close to the White House described the Epstein issue to me as the ‘nuclear fuel’ that accelerated a new form of American populism.”
“First, it boosted Trump. But on Tuesday, it worked against him, helping bring him to the lowest point of his presidency. Many of Trump’s voters viewed his handling of the matter as a betrayal. Pollsters told me it had cracked the bond between Trump and his coalition—and changed the course of the midterms.”
Exchange of the Day
President Trump was interviewed on 60 Minutes by Ross Douthat:
DOUTHAT: So I’ll say I saw James Talarico, the new Democratic senator from Texas
TRUMP: Said very nice things, yeah…
DOUTHAT: I saw him on Fox News. And he said immigration was one of the things he wanted–to work with you on…
TRUMP: Others too. South Carolina said. Numerous, numerous people that won.
DOUTHAT: You did. In the course of the campaign, you did occasionally call him “Talafreako.”
TRUMP: Yeah, I did.
DOUTHAT: Do you think you could work with the Democrats without insulting them–consistently?
TRUMP: Yeah, I do. I could.
DOUTHAT: You think so…
TRUMP: I also call– I also–call many of them “Dumocrats”
DOUTHAT: You did that just–the other day. If– if it took six months of not insulting the Democrats to get a deal done, do you think you could do it?
TRUMP: Very easily.
How Texas’ School Voucher Program Could Change
“Democrats won back the Texas House for the first time in 24 years. Gov. Greg Abbott’s bullishness on vouchers turned off some Republican voters in rural communities that have historically been strongholds for his party,” ProPublica reports.
Pro-Talarico PAC Pulls Back Curtain On Key Ad
“In January, the leading super political action committee backing James Talarico spotted a problem in the data: Talarico was running behind where he needed to be in Hispanic-heavy South Texas in order to win the March primary,” Politico reports.
“It didn’t take them long to find a winning message.”
“A late January poll commissioned by the PAC signaled immense outrage among Texas Democratic voters over ICE’s Minneapolis crackdown. The PAC quickly went up on air with an ad cutting a speech Talarico gave at an anti-ICE rally, before Talarico’s campaign went up with their own immigration spot. According to their data, it helped shore up the South Texas vote and secure Talarico’s primary victory over Rep. Jasmine Crockett.”
“As high-profile ICE incidents spread to other parts of the state throughout the summer and fall, the PAC kept the ad on air. In the end, the ad ran across Texas for 244 straight days, making it their single longest-running spot.”
A First Look at How the Polls Did
Pew Research: “Polls consistently documented the electorate’s dark mood this year, including deep dissatisfaction with President Donald Trump, even among some of his 2024 voters. That frustration was particularly focused on his economic policies.”
“Polls also consistently identified a wide enthusiasm gap, with Democratic supporters more interested, engaged and likely to show up to vote than Republican supporters. Indeed, Democratic supporters were also more likely to take preelection surveys, as a number of our colleagues reported.”
“In the end, polls found more than enough opportunities for Democratic pickups in the Senate to win a majority in the chamber, and they indicated a likely Democratic takeover of the U.S. House of Representatives. But the polling understated the size of the eventual Democratic victory in many of the major statewide races (Georgia and Texas, in particular), as well as in the overall House vote.”
Black Lawmakers Urge Democrats to Invest in 2028
“Black voter turnout fueled wins across the South in Tuesday’s midterms. Now Black lawmakers are warning national Democrats they can’t take the victories for granted,” Politico reports.
”Following a string of stunning wins and incredibly close contests in bright red states powered by a surge in Black voters, Black Democrats are calling for their party to invest in the South now for future cycles.”
A Reckoning Pushes Out Six Accused of Misconduct
“Sexual misconduct allegations involving Reps. Eric Swalwell (D-CA) and Tony Gonzales (R-TX) drove the two congressmen to resign in April and kick-started a reckoning at the Capitol,” the Washington Post reports.
”Almost seven months later, the number of House members accused of sexual misconduct or domestic abuse who have since lost their seats is up to six.”
”Two resigned. One opted not to run again. Another was defeated in his primary. And, on Tuesday, two more lost their bids for reelection.”
Democrats Plot a Unified Case Against Trump
“Congressional Democrats see a target-rich environment next year. But they’re also worried that if they investigate everything, they may appear to investigate nothing,” Axios reports.
“Democrats want to move beyond the one-off hearings, fist-pounding document demands and subpoena threats that defined much of their oversight during President Trump’s first term.”
”The goal, according to senior Democrats, is to build a sustained narrative around the administration’s ‘cost, chaos and corruption’ — while showing voters they have legislative solutions to the problems they uncover.”
NPR: How Democrats plan to investigate the Trump administration after their midterm wins.
Historic Voter Turnout Powered Democrats’ Blue Wave
“Turnout in the midterm elections reached its second-highest peak in more than a century — only slightly behind the 2018 midterms, during President Donald Trump’s first term — with the greatest number of voters casting ballots in states where Democrats won unexpected victories,” the Washington Post reports.
”Across the United States, 49 percent of eligible Americans voted, the second-highest turnout since 1914, when neither women nor African Americans could vote in many states, according to preliminary data from the University of Florida Election Lab.”
”Three states with the highest turnout — Maine (65.7 percent), Minnesota (65.2 percent) and Michigan (63.2 percent) — held competitive Senate races where Democrats prevailed. All three also elected Democratic governors.”
NBC News: 7 charts that illustrate the scope of Democrats’ big 2026 wave.
Beef Prices Rival Gas as Voters’ Top Complaint
“If you had to pick one political advertisement to sum up voters’ biggest economic beef heading into the midterms, it might have been the one about, well, beef:,” Axios reports.
“A viral spot for Mississippi’s Democratic Senate candidate, Scott Colom, making fun of his opponent’s comment that people should simply ‘pick another protein’ to deal with higher beef prices.”
“The spiking cost of red meat really rankled this year — perhaps rivaled only by the price of gas as the hottest, most painful economic indicator of 2026.”
Why Trump Picked Stephen Miller
CNN: “As he stewed over Tuesday’s historic losses and surveyed friends and allies about what he should do, he heard from a contingent who urged him to replace Wiles — and consider replacing her with Miller, people familiar with the matter said.”
“Those allies argued that Miller had already proven his ability to militantly carry out Trump’s whims and, unlike outside candidates, wouldn’t require any time to get up to speed.”
“Plus, they contended, the midterm results had revealed a Republican Party that had lost the trust of Trump’s own MAGA movement. Repairing that relationship and getting the GOP back on the winning track would require a movement figure like Miller to do it.”
“It was a diagnosis far removed from many other Republicans’ view of the midterm results, which put responsibility for the losses squarely on Trump’s agenda and decisionmaking.”
The New Republic: Stephen Miller will drag the GOP further into the electoral abyss.
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Taegan Goddard
Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire -- which for more than two decades has been one of the nation's most influential political news sites.
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