Political Wire

Trump’s Campaign Schedule Is a Bad Sign for Republicans

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Ed Kilgore: “This very week, Trump is campaigning in Alabama, Oklahoma, and Ohio — states he carried by 30 percent, 34 percent and 11 percent just two years ago. Yes, there are vulnerable House seats in Alabama and Oklahoma, but that’s a sign of how deep a hole the GOP has dug for itself.”

“A trip to Ohio is arguably more justifiable; there are highly endangered but still winnable Senate and House races along with a close gubernatorial contest (featuring his occasional sidekick Vivek Ramaswamy). But time spent in any red state (including Iowa and Texas, where there are an extraordinary number of ‘fires’ scorching Republican candidates) is time denied in purple states like Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.”

“The 2026 midterms are to a very dangerous extent being fought on the home turf of the president’s party, leaving too much highly contested ground uncovered.”

Trump Hits Campaign Trail to Sell Economy

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“President Donald Trump hits the campaign later this week on defense, with the tall task of convincing voters that their economic plight is better than they feel and pleading with them to extend the current congressional majority through the next two years as his White House tenure sunsets,” Bloomberg reports.

“His salesmanship received the latest challenge today. Consumer confidence in September fell to the lowest level since 2014 as views about the economy and the labor market deteriorated.”

Watchdog Says Trump’s ‘Pocket Rescissions’ Are Illegal

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“Congress’s watchdog arm says the Trump administration’s $800 million ‘pocket rescission’ violates Congress’ constitutional control over government spending, once again raising the stakes for any anticipated litigation,” the Washington Sun reports.

“The Government Accountability Office said Tuesday that the Trump administration’s plan to unilaterally rescind money that Congress appropriated for the 2026 fiscal year violates the Impoundment Control Act, a law passed in the aftermath of Watergate to codify Congress’ sole power of the purse.”

U.S. Tightens Cuba Travel Rules

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“The U.S. is further restricting travel to Cuba and barring banks from working with the island’s nascent private sector, as Donald Trump’s administration presses to end nearly seven decades of one-party rule in the country,” Bloomberg reports.

“Loopholes that allowed people from the U.S. to travel to Cuba for professional meetings and educational activities are being closed.”

I’m glad I was able to go last year.
Taegan

Extra Bonus Quote of the Day

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“My party is being infiltrated by people like Bo French. Nick Fuentes goes to Dallas and meets with a bunch of Republican leaders. This guy is a Nazi. We’ve got all these people getting on their little podcasts and so forth, saying: ‘We’re just asking questions about the Jews.’ We didn’t labor in the wilderness to build a conservative party that was inclusive and welcoming to see it taken over by a bunch of bigots.”

— Karl Rove, quoted by the San Antonio Current.

A Republican Midterm Defeat Will Not Be an Earthquake

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Ed Luce: “It is only a slight exaggeration to say that since Republican lawmakers do not have control of Congress, they cannot really lose it. Though Trump treats Congress like a Duma, sufficient handfuls of Republicans have joined Democrats to block some of his wishes. Foremost of these is a bill to impose draconian ID requirements on voters.”

“For the most part, however, Congress has been irrelevant in the last 20 months.”

Democrats Force Uncomfortable Vote On Health Care

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“Senate Republicans blocked a Democratic effort on Tuesday to overturn a Trump administration rule they say will make it harder for people to enroll in Affordable Care Act health insurance plans and raise costs for existing participants,” the Washington Sun reports.

“Democrats forced a vote to undo the regulation under the Congressional Review Act, which failed 48-50, with Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) joining with Democrats to support the measure.”

Supreme Court Allows Rapid Third-Country Deportations

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“The Trump administration can resume rapidly deporting immigrants to countries other than their own, the Supreme Court agreed on Tuesday,” the New York Times reports.

“The one-page emergency ruling was unsigned and gave no vote count, as is typical in such cases. Although the justices cleared the way, for now, for the swift removals to continue, the court also announced that it would fast-track the case and hear oral arguments about it in December, setting up a final ruling on the issue next year.”

Erika Kirk Doesn’t Really Want to Talk Politics

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Vanity Fair: “One year after Charlie Kirk’s murder, the MAGA movement is fracturing and the future of Turning Point USA—the influential and lucrative conservative youth organization he founded at 18—is uncertain. His politically reluctant widow now finds herself both its leader and a victim of the conspiracy mentality Kirk fomented.”

Five GOP Senate Candidates Won’t Commit to Trump

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New York Times: “Among the nine Republicans whose races are expected to be crucial in determining Senate control, four would like Mr. Trump to join them on the trail ahead of the election, or are open to the possibility, according to their campaigns. Three campaigns left their positions unclear, and two said they would not join the president on the trail.”

Trump to Auto-Enroll Every Child in a Trump Account

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“The Trump administration is preparing to automatically enroll every American child in a Trump Account before the midterm elections, aiming to increase the impact of a program that has struggled with low take-up,” the Washington Sun reports.

“At the direction of the White House, the Treasury Department and Internal Revenue Service are preparing to use IRS data to create a Trump Account for all children.”

The Beclowning of Scott Bessent

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Paul Krugman: “One iron law of current politics is that nobody who associates themselves with Donald Trump emerges with a shred of credibility. For some, that’s not a big loss — it’s not as if anyone respected Pete Hegseth even before he decided that the key to military success in an age of drones and AI was more testosterone. For others, however, the costs are real. I’m old enough to remember when Marco Rubio was widely considered a reasonable, thoughtful politician.”

“Right now, however, my candidate for the biggest loser is Scott Bessent, the Secretary of the Treasury.”

The Hidden Battles Shaping the Ballot

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Just for members: The latest issue of Ballot Access News.

The latest issue highlights a series of fights over who gets on the ballot, including an Illinois ruling upholding a steep 5% signature requirement for independent House candidates and the Forward Party’s unsuccessful effort to get its statewide nominees on the New Mexico ballot.

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Democrats Hold Wide Lead on Generic Ballot

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A new Quinnipiac University poll finds Democrats leading Republicans on the generic congressional ballot, 51% to 39%.

Generic Congressional Ballot
Democrats 51%
 
Republicans 39%
 
Quinnipiac University poll · registered voters · ±3.8%
Trump Approval
Approve 34%
 
Disapprove 61%
 
Quinnipiac University poll · registered voters · ±3.8%

A Kansas Democrat’s Red-State Pitch

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“Adam Hamilton doesn’t plan to stay in Washington long if he gets there, and he doesn’t plan to spend his time investigating President Donald Trump,” MS NOW reports.

“The 62-year-old megachurch pastor, running a surprisingly competitive Senate campaign as a Democrat in Kansas, told MS NOW he would serve no more than two terms in the chamber if elected. He also said he had no interest in the investigations of Trump and his family that Democratic leaders have signaled they would pursue if their party wins control of Congress.”

Said Hamilton: “I’m not going to Washington to hold trials. I’m going to Washington to fight for the people of Kansas and make life better for them.”

About Political Wire

Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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