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Ethel Kennedy Is Dead

October 10, 2024 at 11:34 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Ethel Kennedy, the widow of Senator Robert F. Kennedy and a popular and vital force in the Kennedy political dynasty, died on Thursday. She was 96,” the New York Times reports.

FEMA Spent Half Its Budget in Just Eight Days

October 10, 2024 at 11:14 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Eight days into the fiscal year, the federal government has spent nearly half the disaster relief that Congress has allocated for the next 12 months,” Politico reports.

“The rapid spending — which is likely to accelerate as aid flows to states pulverized by Hurricanes Helene and Milton — soon will force the Federal Emergency Management Agency to restrict spending unless Congress approves additional funding.”

“Under the spending restrictions, FEMA would cut off funding for disaster-related rebuilding projects nationwide and reserve its money for life-saving operations during disasters. The cutoff often halts major repairs to roads, sewer plants and water-treatment facilities.”

Rick Scott Maintains Lead in Florida

October 10, 2024 at 10:35 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new New York Times/Siena poll in Florida finds Sen. Rick Scott (R) leading challenger Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D), 49% to 40%.

A new Marist poll finds Scott leading Mucarsel-Powell by a smaller margin, 50% to 48%.

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Ted Cruz Remains Ahead in Texas

October 10, 2024 at 10:32 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new Marist poll in Texas finds Sen. Ted Cruz (R) leading challenger Colin Allred (D), 51% to 46%.

A new New York Times/Siena poll finds Cruz leading Allred, 48% to 44%.

Sherrod Brown Narrowly Ahead in Tight Race

October 10, 2024 at 10:27 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new Washington Post poll in Ohio finds Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) just ahead of challenger Bernie Moreno (R), 48% to 47%.

A new Marist poll finds Brown leading Moreno, 50% to 48%.

A Few Thoughts This Morning

October 10, 2024 at 9:50 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

The latest swing state polls show the presidential race tighter than ever. Donald Trump ruled out a debate rematch. And Kamala Harris raised more than $1 billion in the last three months.

Here’s what else I’m thinking about:

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Can Harris Wrest Alaska Away From Trump?

October 10, 2024 at 8:35 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Bloomberg: “Now the state has also become an unlikely talking point for Democratic fundraisers and strategists as a small but tantalizing presidential election prize after a poll last month showed Harris trailing former President Donald Trump by just 5 percentage points.”

“Polling there has been more sparse than in traditional swing states. But in an election year in which crazier things have already happened — it suddenly seemed not impossible for the Harris campaign to scoop up Alaska’s three electoral votes, offering an alternative path to the 270 electoral votes needed for the presidency.”

Comedian Laughs When Trump Says He’s ‘Truthful’

October 10, 2024 at 8:31 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Comedian Andrew Schulz laughed in Donald Trump’s face when the former president joined him on his podcast and claimed he “is basically a truthful person,” The Independent reports.

Inflation Likely Cooled Again Last Month

October 10, 2024 at 8:29 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“U.S. inflation last month likely reached its lowest point since February 2021, clearing the way for another Federal Reserve rate cut and adding to the stream of encouraging economic data that has emerged in the final weeks of the presidential campaign,” the AP reports.

“The consumer price index is expected to have risen just 2.3% in September from 12 months earlier… A reading that low, likely reflecting lower gas prices and only a slight rise in food costs, would barely exceed the Fed’s 2% inflation target. A little over two years ago, inflation had reached a peak of 9.1%.”

Wall Street Journal: “The consumer-price index rose 2.4% from a year earlier, the Labor Department said Thursday, after rising 2.5% in August.”

Trump Didn’t Read Melania’s Book

October 10, 2024 at 8:26 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

The only text on the jacket of Melania Trump’s new memoir, aside from the title, is an endorsement from Donald Trump, New York Magazine reports.

Yet at a September 19 rally, the former president said he hadn’t read his wife’s forthcoming memoir because he’s “so busy.”

“Considering this admission and the way the cover blurb sounds nothing like Trump, it seems safe to say he did not write the endorsement.”

How Trump’s Lies Undermine Democracy

October 10, 2024 at 8:17 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Jonathan Bernstein: “To the extent a party just makes up stuff, it tends to undermine the most minimal claims about democracy.”

“There are lots of answers to the question of how democracy works, and some of them are very complicated. But the simplest one, and in a way the most basic, is that democracy “works” by giving the in-party strong incentives to produce good policy outcomes and the out-party strong incentives to find and exploit bad policy outcomes, and even to formulate alternative policies.”

“That doesn’t work if one of the parties flat-out lies about things. It’s less about what voters believe than what politicians believe. Trump when he was in the White House acted as if it didn’t matter what he did because he would just say everything was perfect; when Trump has been out of office, he has rarely bothered to make reality-based criticisms, and as the campaign goes on he seems less and less anchored by actual events.”

Trump’s Small Donor Fundraising Plummets

October 10, 2024 at 8:02 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Donald Trump’s contributions from small-dollar donors have plummeted since his last White House campaign, presenting the former president with a financial challenge as he tries to keep pace with the Democrats’ fundraising machine,” the AP reports.

“Fewer than a third of the Republican’s campaign contributions have come from donors who gave less than $200 — down from nearly half of all donations in his 2020 race.”

“The dip has forced Trump to rely more on wealthy donors and groups backed by them, a shift that cuts into the populist message that first propelled him to the White House. The decline in donations could not come at a worse time for Trump. Democrats have raised massive sums from small-dollar donors this cycle.”

The Case for Kamala Harris

October 10, 2024 at 8:00 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

The Atlantic endorses Kamala Harris for president.

“For the third time in eight years, Americans have to decide whether they want Donald Trump to be their president. No voter could be ignorant by now of who he is. Opinions about Trump aren’t just hardened—they’re dried out and exhausted. The man’s character has been in our faces for so long, blatant and unchanging, that it kills the possibility of new thoughts, which explains the strange mix of boredom and dread in our politics.”

“Whenever Trump senses any waning of public attention, he’ll call his opponent a disgusting name, or dishonor the memory of fallen soldiers, or threaten to overturn the election if he loses, or vow to rule like a dictator if he wins. He knows that nothing he says is likely to change anyone’s views.”

Everyone Is Betting on the U.S. Election

October 10, 2024 at 7:55 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Wired: “Polymarket has had a lot of success this year. The pro-Trump billionaire Peter Thiel and ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin announced they had raised around $70 million in funding for the company this past May. The site’s monthly traffic has grown to around 20 times more than what it was at the time of the investment.”

“Betting markets also secured a big win earlier this month when a US appeals court gave Kalshi, a predictions startup, the green light to offer markets on which party would take over Congress next year. While the case hasn’t been completely resolved, it likely won’t be decided before election day. This means election markets are here to stay, much to the joy of political influencers and elites like Musk online.”

‘Blue Wall’ Blues

October 10, 2024 at 7:10 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Top Democratic politicians and operatives tell us the vital states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania are getting tougher for Vice President Harris and the party’s Senate candidates,” Axios reports.

“Harris is depending on that Blue Wall to win the White House, even if she struggles in the Sunbelt. On private calls, some top Harris allies are saying they believe the race will come down to Pennsylvania and Michigan.”

“There’s growing worry among Democrats that Harris seems stuck, even sliding a bit, after a strong start to her young presidential campaign. Her media blitz, heavy spending and largely favorable coverage don’t seem to be moving the needle much, if at all, these Democrats say.”

Quote of the Day

October 10, 2024 at 7:08 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“When you fear God, you have nothing else to fear. I don’t answer to the Republican Party. I answer to the people of this district.”

— Rep. Scott Perry (R-PA), quoted by Punchbowl News, dismissing polls showing him losing his re-election bid.

Harris Seen as More Likable, Trump as Stronger

October 10, 2024 at 7:04 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Gallup: “Recent ratings of the 2024 presidential candidates’ personal qualities show Vice President Kamala Harris with a strong advantage over former President Donald Trump in U.S. voter perceptions of being likable, while holding smaller leads for having strong moral character and being honest and trustworthy.”

“Trump outpaces Harris in perceptions of being a strong and decisive leader and being able to get things done.”

Harris Still Worried She Won’t Have Enough Money

October 10, 2024 at 6:52 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“The coordinated campaign of Vice President Kamala Harris made history this week when it became the first to raise $1 billion in less than 80 days since she entered the race,“ the Washington Post reports.

“But her campaign leadership is worried that they still might not have enough to win — and that news of the windfall could hurt the campaign by dampening fundraising in the final weeks.”

“People familiar with the campaign strategy, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss plans, said Wednesday that the campaign continues to face significant headwinds that will require more money over the coming weeks. They said each of the seven targeted swing states remains within the margin of error, requiring costly spending plans.”

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About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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