“The polls are, I think, intentionally inflating the size of the battleground.”
— Republican pollster Patrick Ruffini, quoted by Politico.
Medicaid Cuts Haunt Republicans in Battleground States
“Democrats in battleground states seeking to flip control of Congress in November are counting on a potent weapon: the deep cuts to Medicaid that Republicans approved last year in their signature legislation known as the One Big Beautiful Bill Act,” Politico reports.
“In recent Senate debates in Alaska, Georgia, Iowa, Maine, Michigan and South Carolina, Democratic candidates went after their opponents for supporting the law, which will reduce federal funding to the low-income health insurance program by hundreds of billions of dollars over the coming years. They also vowed to restore the money to the program if elected.”
Trump’s Approval Falls to Record Low In Another Poll
A new Reuters/Ipsos poll finds Donald Trump’s approval at 31%, while 66% disapprove.
Trump Approval
Approve 31%
Disapprove 66%
The same poll finds Democrats leading Republicans on the generic congressional ballot, 47% to 35%.
Generic Congressional Ballot
Democrats 47%
Republicans 35%
The Billionaire Tax Isn’t Breaking Through
“A proposed tax on billionaires remains short of majority support as Californians begin casting ballots,” according to a new Citrin-Politico poll.
“Likely voters are essentially where they were a month ago, the survey found, with 46% in favor of Proposition 40 and 43% opposed — despite a recent push by backers of the measure, including Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), to rally support for the one-time, 5% tax on billionaires’ assets.”
Trump Downplays Prospects for Meeting with Kim Jong Un
“President Donald Trump downplayed expectations for a November meeting with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un amid speculation over renewed U.S. efforts to reach out to the reclusive regime in Pyongyang,” Bloomberg reports.
Said Trump: “I don’t know. I’m not sure that anybody’s asking for a meeting, but my relationship with Kim Jong Un is very good.”
GOP PAC Spends to Boost Third-Party Socialist in Ohio
“A GOP-aligned super PAC has more than tripled its investment in the Ohio Senate race over the last week as it seeks to boost a socialist candidate — an apparent attempt to sink former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown’s chances,” Politico reports.
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Trump Urges New Mexico to Change Name
“President Donald Trump is giving New Mexico another branding pitch, urging the state to swap ‘Mexico’ for ‘America’ and suggesting the change could boost everything from home values to state pride,” Fox News reports.
Said Trump: “New Mexico should immediately change its name to New America. We are not Mexico, we are the United States of America!”
Trump Blitzes Through Deep-Red States
“President Trump has embarked on a campaign swing across a remarkably conservative swath of America in a six-day blitz that began Monday, trying to boost Republican turnout in places the party did not view as competitive just a few months ago,” the New York Times reports.
“With just two weeks to go until the midterm elections, Mr. Trump’s itinerary reflects how worried the GOP is about its prospects for holding onto the House and Senate, and winning governor’s races nationwide.”
Bloomberg: Trump’s rally blitz tests his pull with midterm voters.
Mahmoud Khalil Appeals to Halt Deportation
“Mahmoud Khalil, the Columbia University graduate arrested last year by Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents amid campus protests, appealed to the Supreme Court on Monday in an attempt to prevent his deportation,” the New York Times reports.
“Mr. Khalil, a legal permanent U.S. resident who is married to an American, became an early and high-profile example of President Trump’s crackdown on pro-Palestinian demonstrations on college campuses.”
BBC Seeks Deposition of Jack Smith
Deadline: “Attorneys for the BBC want to subpoena Jack Smith, the special counsel who brought an election conspiracy indictment against Donald Trump, as the network defends itself against the president’s $10 billion defamation lawsuit.”
Trump Says He’d Meet with Putin and Xi
“President Donald Trump said Monday that he would meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping to discuss how to end the Ukraine war, while criticizing Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky,” CNBC reports.
“Trump suggested that that meeting, which Putin reportedly proposed, could take place without Zelensky present.”
Bloomberg: Trump open to Putin, Xi summit but would focus on nuclear arms.
Polls Show a Blue Wave, but Beware All the Close Races
Ed Kilgore: “Fifteen days from the end of the 2026 midterm elections, the big picture is increasingly clear: Despite a Republican-leaning landscape (especially for the U.S. Senate), a blue wave is taking shape.”
“But its height and depth when it comes to the congressional results depend on the outcome of an extraordinary number of very close races that could hinge on late trends and hard-to-predict turnout patterns.”
Shapiro Launches PAC to Back Democrats in Key Races
“Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro launched a federal political action committee to support Democrats running in the state’s most competitive U.S. House races next month, stoking further questions about his 2028 presidential ambitions,” Bloomberg reports.
“Shapiro’s New Path PAC allows the governor to contribute directly to a slate of Democrats attempting to oust incumbents in four Republican-held seats. A sweep of those seats by Democrats, with Shapiro’s name at the top of the ticket, would be a victory for the party he could point to during a presidential primary.”
Manchin to Campaign with Susan Collins
“Former Sen. Joe Manchin (I-WV) is traveling to Maine this week to campaign with Republican Sen. Susan Collins, according to details shared first with Semafor,” Semafor reports.
“The moderate West Virginian said his visit is motivated by the attacks on Collins for voting too often in support of President Donald Trump.”
Abdul El-Sayed Gets a Gift From an Opponent’s Plant
“A young man asked Abdul-El Sayed if he would disavow the Muslim Brotherhood. The Democratic Senate candidate in Michigan replied that he would, and then said that questions like that promote bigoted ideas about Muslim Americans,” the Wall Street Journal reports.
“The tense exchange at a Saturday event for El-Sayed has turned into a highlight for the candidate that he is now posting on social media.”
The entire exchange is worth watching.
Minnesota Senate Race Moves to Likely Democrat
The Cook Political Report shifts Minnesota’s Senate race from Lean Democrat to Likely Democrat.
“We’re skeptical of some public polling that has shown the race close, and Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan has only just now started spending after a brutal Democratic primary. Former NFL reporter Michele Tafoya has an interesting profile, and national GOP sources maintain that voters’ anger over the state’s widespread fraud scandal will stick to Flanagan. But given the economy and the state’s ICE raids, this is a difficult climate to try to make a major play in a state Kamala Harris won.”
Republicans Barely Mention Trump in Political Ads
“At rallies across the country, President Trump has implored voters to ‘pretend I’m on the ballot’ in the midterm elections,” the New York Times reports.
“But on the airwaves, his party is sending the opposite message.”
“Less than $1 of every $100 in Republican television ad spending on House and Senate races from Sept. 9 through Oct. 17 has gone toward commercials that mention the word ‘Trump.'”
Donalds Leads Jolly in Florida Governor’s Race
A new Univision/YouGov poll in Florida finds Byron Donalds (R) leading David Jolly (D) in the governor’s race, 50% to 42%.
Florida Governor’s Race
Byron Donalds (R) 50%
David Jolly (D) 42%
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Taegan Goddard
Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire -- which for more than two decades has been one of the nation's most influential political news sites.
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