“A Court of Claims judge ruled that Michigan clerks must accept late ballots so long as they are postmarked no later than November 2 and received before the deadline for certifying election results, or 14 days after the election,” the Detroit News reports.
“The Trump administration on Friday announced $13 billion in additional aid to Puerto Rico to help with rebuilding in the aftermath of 2017’s Hurricane Maria,” CNN reports.
“The move is likely an attempt to appeal to Puerto Rican voters who moved to the battleground state of Florida after the hurricane struck the US territory.”
“The National Republican Congressional Committee has canceled about $2 million worth of advertising it had reserved for campaigning in the Houston television market,” the Texas Tribune reports.
“The Houston region is home to several contested congressional elections.”
A new AP-NORC poll finds 54% of voters say they will vote before Election Day.
In 2016, roughly 42% of voters did so.
A new PBS/NPR/Marist poll finds Joe Biden leads Donald Trump nationally in the presidential race by double-digits, 52% to 42%.
Said pollster Barbara Carvalho: “There’s no question that Biden’s ahead at this point.”
Also interesting: “Trump still enjoys greater enthusiasm than his Democratic opponent — 79% of those who say they plan to vote for him are doing so because they support him, while 17% say it’s because they are against Biden. People who plan to vote for Biden are more evenly split in their reasoning, with 49% explicitly supporting him and 46% motivated more by voting against Trump.”
“President Trump’s campaign manager didn’t vote for his boss in the last presidential election. He didn’t vote at all,” the Washington Post reports.
“The last time Bill Stepien voted, according to public records, was in 2015, when he lived in New Jersey and was registered there.”
“Stepien registered to vote in Washington, D.C., where he has been living since 2017, at the end of July — two weeks after he was tapped to take over Trump’s reelection bid.”
Daily Beast: “Lawyers representing the United States at Julian Assange’s extradition trial in Britain have accepted the claim that the WikiLeaks founder was offered a presidential pardon by a Congressman on the condition that he would help cover up Russia’s involvement in hacking emails from the Democratic National Committee.”
Joe Biden has started receiving classified intelligence briefings, according to NBC News.
The Bank of England indicated that it could cut interest rates below zero for the first time in its 326-year history as it tries to shore up a U.K. economic recovery that is facing the dual headwinds of the coronavirus and Brexit, Yahoo Finance reports.
Texas deputy sheriffs were allegedly rewarded by superiors for using force on the job with steakhouse gift cards, the Austin American-Statesman reports.
Also interesting in The Upshot is their graphic showing how polling would translate into electoral votes.
- If you only count states where one candidate leads by at least three points, Joe Biden gets 291 electoral votes, easily enough to put him into the White House.
- If the polls translate exactly to the results in each state – which they won’t – Biden wins 353 electoral votes.
However, if state polls “are as wrong as they were in 2016” — and in the same direction — Trump would win 278 electoral votes and re-election.
Related for members: Why a Trump Win Will Be Harder to Pull Off This Time.
At a campaign rally in Wisconsin, President Trump “took a shot at Biden for using teleprompters even as Trump’s teleprompters were visible,” the Washington Post reports.
A new AP-NORC poll finds 72% of the public, including 53% of Republicans and 90% of Democrats, say the country is headed in the wrong direction.
“Most Americans disapprove of the President’s overall job performance and his handling of the coronavirus, health care, foreign policy, race relations, and policing. The public is divided in their assessment of the president’s management of the economy and the military.”
The Upshot has an interesting twist on polling averages, showing the key battleground states along with what would happen with a polling error similar to those in 2016 or 2012.
But Jonathan Bernstein has two caveats: “One is that the chart assumes any error would be in the same direction, which it may not be; I’d rather they demonstrated the size of the error, which could favor either candidate. The other thing is that the ‘polling error’ here includes the final three weeks of polls in each of those previous elections, but there’s good reason to believe that the race shifted in Donald Trump’s direction in the final days in 2016, so part of what’s being called an error here is really polls taken before voters changed their minds.”
Well, this is timely: October Surprise: How the FBI Tried to Save Itself and Crashed an Election by Devlin Barrett.
“The 2016 Election, which altered American political history, was not decided by the Russians or in Ukraine or by Steve Bannon. The event that broke Hillary’s blue wall in the Midwest and swung Florida and North Carolina was an October Surprise, and it was wholly a product of the leadership of the FBI. This is the inside story by the reporter closest to its center.”
The Washington Post has an excerpt.
- Hardcover Book
- Barrett, Devlin (Author)
- English (Publication Language)
- 336 Pages - 09/22/2020 (Publication Date) - PublicAffairs (Publisher)
Cook Political Report: “Is it deja vu all over again? In 2008, Virginia’s 5th District was the site of a gigantic upset when tireless 34-year-old Democrat Tom Perriello unseated GOP Rep. Virgil Goode by 727 votes. Perriello took advantage of an Obama wave of student turnout in Charlottesville and Black voters in Southside Virginia, as well as a deeply polarizing GOP opponent who barely raised money and ran a stone age campaign.”
“Fast forward to 2020. Democrats have coalesced behind perhaps their most ideal House candidate anywhere: Cameron Webb, a telegenic 37-year-old Black physician who works at UVA’s School of Medicine. Meanwhile, GOP former Liberty University athletics official Bob Good (no relation to Virgil Goode) is still struggling to unite Republicans after defeating GOP Rep. Denver Riggleman at a June drive-through convention.”
The new FiveThirtyEight Senate forecast gives Democrats a 58% chance to control the chamber after the 2020 elections.
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