Playbook: “McConnell regards himself as a proud institutionalist. It’s hard to tell what that means for McConnell in this moment. Does he see conviction as a worthy punishment for a president who inspired an attack on a co-equal branch of government? If so, maybe it’s not such a long shot. Or does ‘protecting the institution’ mean acquitting Trump, because a post-presidential impeachment is unconstitutional in McConnell’s view?”
“There are complicating factors McConnell is surely taking into account as he makes his decision: A vote to convict could make winning back the Senate in 2022 more difficult. It might also trigger calls from the GOP base for McConnell to step aside as leader, forcing his own members to choose between him and their voters.”
“Still, even McConnell’s closest advisers admit they have no idea what he’ll do. Senate Republicans close with him say they’re genuinely in the dark — though they predict he will acquit. McConnell has said little, maintaining his poker face throughout the impeachment managers’ presentations, just as he did during the last impeachment. One reporter said he’s looked like a statue throughout the trial, hands folded in his lap and listening intently.”
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