Nate Silver: “Ever since we launched our election model in late June, it has moved entirely in one direction: toward Democrats. Pretty much every week, they’ve either gained ground in our forecast or held steady.”
“This week has been more in the ‘held steady’ category. In the Deluxe version of our model, Democrats’ chances of keeping the Senate are 71 percent, while their chances of holding the House are 31 percent. Neither number has meaningfully changed from a week ago.”
It was looking like a good summer for Republicans until the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, gas prices fell for 99 straight days, and the Democratic Congress passed much of Biden’s agenda.
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