Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: “Ohio surprisingly approved a new congressional map late last week in a bipartisan vote.”
“While the map does get better for Republicans, it’s not nearly as bad for Democrats as it could have been, and Democrats still have a path to come out of this election with as many seats as they currently hold in the state.”
“Reps. Marcy Kaptur (D-OH) and Greg Landsman (D-OH) see their districts get less Democratic, while Rep. Emilia Sykes (D-OH) sees her district get bluer.”
New York Times: “Mr. Smith, the special counsel who twice indicted Mr. Trump, appears unintimidated by the president’s demand that Republican lawmakers investigate him and that the Justice Department put him in prison for as-yet unproved and unspecified crimes.”
“Quite the opposite, in fact. Mr. Smith, who spent more than two years aggressively collecting evidence to prove Mr. Trump mishandled classified documents and tried to overturn the results of the 2020 election, appears eager to publicly challenge a foundational pillar of MAGA canon: that the president was a sinned-upon innocent who did nothing to deserve scrutiny, much less two prosecutions.”
“Mr. Smith has told people in his orbit that he welcomes the opportunity to present the public case against Mr. Trump denied to him by the Supreme Court decision asserting broad presidential immunity from prosecution and adverse rulings from a Trump-appointed judge on the federal bench in Florida.”
“President Donald Trump littered his new ’60 Minutes’ interview with a wide-ranging assortment of false claims, the vast majority of them previously debunked,” CNN reports.
“We counted at least 18 inaccurate assertions.”
President Trump said that he “won’t be extorted” by Democrats who are demanding negotiations to extend the Affordable Care Act subsidies that expire at the end of the year for millions of Americans, the AP reports.
Echoing congressional Republicans, the president said he’ll negotiate only when the government is reopened.
“The trial of a man charged with assaulting a Customs and Border Protection agent by throwing a sandwich at his chest in protest began on Monday, several months after federal prosecutors failed to persuade a grand jury to approve a felony indictment against him over the incident,” the New York Times reports.
“The case stands out for its unusual facts and the Trump administration’s determination to prosecute the man, even on a lesser charge. But it is one of a number of unusually minor cases the government is bringing to federal court at Mr. Trump’s direction.”
“They have gone out into the hall to the nearest camera they can find and looked into the lens and said Republicans are shutting down the government. It makes no sense. It is the most extreme example of gas lighting in the history of American politics. And many in the media have allowed them to get away with that. It is shameful.”
— Speaker Mike Johnson, talking to reporters about House Democrats.
“Speaker Mike Johnson said Monday that GOP leaders are discussing ways to deal with the rapidly approaching Nov. 21 expiration date of the continuing resolution that passed the House last month and is now stalled in in the Senate,” Politico reports.
“Republican leaders are privately eyeing another stopgap into early 2026 which would be part of any deal to reopen the government.”
CNN Poll: “The Democratic Party’s ongoing internal image troubles may not necessarily translate into defections at the ballot box. Democratic-aligned voters remain far less fond of their own party (65% have a favorable view of the Democratic Party) than Republican-aligned voters (80% have a favorable view of the GOP), but even those Democratic-aligned voters with a negative view of the party are almost universally behind the Democratic candidate in their district (93%) and broadly motivated to vote (71% say they are extremely motivated).”
“All told, Democrats hold a 12-point advantage among those voters who say they are extremely or very motivated to turn out next year.”
NBC News: “The shutdown is compounding problems that have intensified broader anxiety over an economy that in recent months has been marked by lingering high prices for many consumer goods, rough jobs numbers, mass layoffs at major companies — including Amazon and Target — and an uptick in inflation.”
“That stagnation has in recent months eroded the high approval marks President Donald Trump once enjoyed on the economy.”
“The bleak picture has some Republicans sounding the alarm to the White House — even though delivering the news isn’t easy.”
Paul Krugman: “Does Donald Trump realize that he has ceded world leadership to China? Probably not: During his recent Asian trip, foreign leaders flattered him and showered him with personal gifts, so he came home with his ego even more inflated than usual. Nobody close to him would dare tell him that if you look at the substance of what he agreed to, it amounted to an ignominious retreat. When Chuck Schumer pointed out the reality of what Trump didn’t accomplish, his reaction was hysterical.”
“Well, if this be treason, make the most of it. The whole world knows what Trump’s sycophants won’t tell him: His confrontation with China has ended up demonstrating Chinese strength and American weakness.”
Jonathan Chait: “We know this because a very similar scandal occurred about a decade ago. Remember the Clinton Foundation? After the 43rd president left office, he established a charitable foundation to undertake good works: disaster relief, public health, and other largely uncontroversial endeavors.”
“But the Clinton Foundation became a political liability after reports suggested that it created a potential conflict of interest. Bill Clinton may have retired from elected office, but Hillary Clinton harbored widely known ambitions to run in the future. So the wealthy people and companies that donated to the foundation might have been hoping for access to and gratitude from a potential future president.”
“At least eight moderate Senate Democrats are meeting in hopes of finding a deal to end the monthlong government shutdown, but sources familiar with the closely held conversations say they will need strong assurances from the GOP before voting to reopen the government,” The Hill reports.
“Democrats are bracing for the possible retirement of Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi, one of the party’s most powerful, popular and effective leaders, who served as chief antagonist to President Donald Trump during his first term and has quietly counseled Democrats as they take on Trump in his second term,” NBC News reports.
“She is expected to make an announcement about her future after Tuesday’s elections, when voters will consider a ballot measure, known as ‘Proposition 50,’ that would redraw the state’s congressional lines.”
“The Trump administration has begun detailed planning for a new mission to send U.S. troops and intelligence officers into Mexico to target drug cartels,” NBC News reports.
“The early stages of training for the potential mission, which would include ground operations inside Mexico, has already begun, the two current U.S. officials said. But a deployment to Mexico is not imminent, the two U.S. officials and one of the former U.S. officials said. Discussions about the scope of the mission are ongoing, and a final decision has not been made.”
“Only a party going through the Democrats’ identity and existential crises could, nine months into Donald Trump’s second presidency, have Zohran Mamdani and Abigail Spanberger as its front-runners in two of Tuesday’s biggest races,” CNN reports.
“Spanberger is a 46-year-old former CIA officer, the daughter of a nurse and a cop, who sounded the alarm in Congress and now on the campaign trail about what she sees as her party’s excesses. Mamdani is a 34-year-old democratic socialist, the Uganda-born son of a university professor and filmmaker, who sprung to stardom with a focus on cost of living conveyed in buzzy, multilingual videos pushing for government to pay for more.”
“This isn’t a sitcom pitch: It reflects a party still deep in figuring out what it’s supposed to be and how it’s supposed to appeal to voters.”
“Democrats are significantly outspending Republicans on advertising for high-profile elections Tuesday in Virginia, New Jersey and Pennsylvania, which are being watched as a preview of the 2026 midterms,” Axios reports.
“The party’s spending — along with the states’ political makeup, persistent economic concerns and historical trends benefiting the party out of power nationally — is among the reasons Democrats are favored to win most of the key races.”
“Zohran Mamdani’s lead heading into the New York mayoral election has withstood a furious push from Republicans, establishment Democrats and a coalition of Wall Street dealmakers, leaving Democrats to face a familiar question should he win on Tuesday,” Bloomberg reports.
“If Mamdani can make it there, can he — or a candidate like him — make it anywhere?”
Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.
Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.
Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.
Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.
Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.
