“The Pentagon has launched a criminal investigation into the leak of a classified Defense Intelligence Agency report assessing that damage to Iranian nuclear facilities from U.S. airstrikes didn’t significantly set back Tehran’s nuclear program,” Politico reports.
Trump Plan Could End Asylum Claims
“The Trump administration is planning to dismiss asylum claims for potentially hundreds of thousands of migrants in the United States and then make them immediately deportable as part of the president’s sweeping immigration crackdown,” CNN reports.
Mike Johnson Warns About Medicaid Backlash
“Speaker Mike Johnson is warning in private that Senate Republicans could cost House Republicans their majority next year if they try to push through the deep Medicaid cuts in the current Senate version,” Politico reports.
Massie Wants a Ceasefire with Trump
“Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY) says he has the ‘antibodies’ after surviving President Trump’s previous attempt to oust him during his first administration,” the Wall Street Journal reports.
“The Kentucky Republican’s immunity theory is now being put to its biggest test as Trump steps up his attacks and groups aligned with the president gear up to eject Massie in his 2026 GOP primary.”
Said Massie: “They are flogging me to keep the other horses in the barn. That’s what’s going on. This is not about changing my vote.”
Still, he said he is hoping Trump cools down on his push to unseat him: “I want a ceasefire. I survived the bunker busters. Let’s call it even.”
Trump Is Preparing to Test Budget Law
“The Trump administration is preparing to test a 1974 budget law by refusing to spend congressionally mandated funds, senior federal officials say — an escalation that could change the balance of power between Congress and the White House,” the Washington Post reports.
“In both internal communications and interviews, more than two dozen current and former employees across multiple agencies said the administration appears to be readying to push the boundaries of the law meant to prevent the president from unilaterally overturning spending decisions made by Congress.”
“Key White House aides have long argued that the law is an unconstitutional limit on presidential power and suggested they will seek court rulings to overturn it, which could allow the White House to determine which spending to carry out.”
Zohran Mamdani’s Win Isn’t a Fluke
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White House Ramps Up Sales Pitch for Tax Plan
“The White House is stepping up its efforts to sell the GOP megabill ahead of an impending Senate vote,” Politico reports.
“The legislation is far from finalized, but the Council of Economic Advisers is sending its first analysis of the Senate bill to Congress Wednesday.”
“The analysis is significantly rosier than projections from most other economists, who doubt that the Republican plan will do much for growth because the tax breaks for businesses — which have the most potential economic oomph — are relatively small, especially compared to the 2017 bill. Their tax package this time around is much more focused on cutting taxes for individuals while piling on debt that most economists believe will push up interest rates and create a drag on growth.”
Iran Hangs Three Men for Spying for Israel
“Iran executed three men on Wednesday, after they were convicted of collaborating with Israel’s Mossad spy agency and smuggling equipment used in an assassination,” Reuters reports.
Zohran Mamdani Is the Clear Frontrunner
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Trump Hits ‘Scum’ for Revealing Bombing Was Botched
“President Donald Trump lashed out at ‘scum’ who revealed his much-championed strikes against Iran were likely far less effective than he claims,” the Daily Beast reports.
Said Trump: “CNN is scum, MSDNC is scum, the New York Times is scum. They’re bad people, they’re sick.”
He added: “What they’ve done is they’ve tried to make this unbelievable victory into something less. The generals and all of the people who did a good job, they get demeaned by these idiots at CNN, who can’t get ratings. The place is dying, nobody even wants to waste their time going on any of their shows, so they form what The New York Times, which is dying also. Without Trump, you wouldn’t have a New York Times.”
This Dog Won’t Wag
Paul Krugman: “In 2002 and 2003 I was one of the few people writing for a major media organization willing to say that we were being lied into war in Iraq, which was obvious to anyone willing to face the facts. Management was not happy, but to their credit allowed me to keep writing.”
“What I learned from those days was never to trust people who obviously want a war. Don’t trust what they say about the justifications; don’t trust what they say about how it’s going. This was true even for the Bush people, who were models of honesty compared with the current crew.”
“This time even mainstream media more or less acknowledged that the intelligence didn’t support claims about Iran’s nuclear program. And it took only days rather than years to acknowledge that the attack appears to have been basically a failure.”
Israeli Intelligence Says Airstrikes Were Effective
Israeli intelligence believes U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear sites caused “very significant” damage, offering a more optimistic picture of the operations’ success than the leaked U.S. assessment, Axios reports.
It’s Still the Economy, Stupid
Playbook: “Mamdani has promised free buses, free child care, city-run grocery stores, rent freezes, wealth taxes and more. And whatever you think of those kinds of pledges, there’s a running theme that plenty of Dems believe was the real lesson from last night: Mamdani won by focusing relentlessly on the cost of living — the issue poll after poll shows voters care about most…”
“Of course, one other lesson centrist Dems might like to take away is that choosing dismally flawed establishment candidates to run against outsider populist opponents — whether on the left or the right — really isn’t working out too well for them. (If they need another reminder, the anniversary of that CNN debate is this coming weekend.)”
Trump Denies Former Biden Aides Executive Privilege
“The Trump White House has decided that nine former senior Biden aides won’t be protected by executive privilege during their interviews for a congressional probe into Joe Biden’s mental fitness for office,” Axios reports.
“The White House’s move means the former Biden aides will have to answer questions about their private conversations with Biden, unless they or Biden try to challenge the decision in court.”
A New Political Star Emerges
“The national Democratic establishment on Tuesday night struggled to absorb the startling ascent of a democratic socialist in New York City who embraced a progressive economic agenda and diverged from the party’s dominant position on the Middle East,” the New York Times reports.
“As elections go, Tuesday’s party primary for mayor was a thunderbolt: New York voters turned away from a well-funded familiar face and famous name, former Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo, and in doing so made a generational and ideological break with the party’s mainstream. They turned to a 33-year-old, three-term state assemblyman, Zohran Mamdani, who ran on an optimistic message about affordability and the rising cost of living that has eluded many national Democrats.”
Playbook: “Every political chat group and social media feed across America was lit last night, and with good reason — this is a result sending shockwaves through the Democratic establishment and far beyond. It marks a stunning victory for the left flank of a fractured party still searching for direction after last November’s presidential defeat, boosting the voices demanding a more radical policy platform to take on Donald Trump’s GOP.”
Generational Turnover Is Coming to the Democrats
Nate Silver: “In the mayor’s race, Cuomo trotted out the same boilerplate, tired themes, including a heavy emphasis on Trump, that had also failed Clinton, Biden (in 2024) and Harris rather than the local issues that mayoral races often turn upon.”
“The extent to which this might be a leading indicator for national politics, and particularly the 2028 presidential nomination race, is an open question. But I think you could go too far in dismissing it, and some fellow center-left types probably will. New York City is a weird place, but it’s also an exceptionally diverse place, home to every imaginable ethnic group, more conservatives in the Democratic primary electorate than you might think, and plenty of voters who were probably closer to Cuomo on the issues but who just didn’t like his vibe, or who liked Mamdani’s.”
“So Zohran thoroughly earned the win, and Cuomo and the Democratic establishment thoroughly earned the loss. And even if they finally take the hint, generational turnover in the Democratic Party is coming whether they like it or not.”
Republicans Hate the Reconciliation Bill
Punchbowl News: “There are nine days until July 4 — Republicans’ deadline to pass President Donald Trump’s ‘one big, beautiful bill.’”
“But there’s a problem — It seems like lots of Republicans loathe the GOP’s massive reconciliation bill. The complaints span the party’s ideological spectrum — and they’re only getting louder.”
Cease-Fire Appears to Hold
“President Trump responded with anger when there was continued fire between Israel and Iran after a U.S.-brokered cease-fire went into effect,” the Wall Street Journal reports.
“But in subsequent hours, there were initial signs that the cease-fire might be holding.”
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