President Trump’s pardons and commutations have cost more than $100 million in fines owed to the federal government and another $1.5 billion in restitution to victims, Forbes reports.
Elon Musk Floats Third Party Strategy
Elon Musk floated a strategy for his hypothetical third political party:
“One way to execute on this would be to laser-focus on just 2 or 3 Senate seats and 8 to 10 House districts. Given the razor-thin legislative margins, that would be enough to serve as the deciding vote on contentious laws, ensuring that they serve the true will of the people.”
Majority Don’t Know Why We Declared Independence
A new Morning Consult poll finds 53% of Americans don’t know why the American colonies adopted the Declaration of Independence to separate from Britain on July 4, 1776.
One Big Unpopular Bill
G. Elliot Morris: “On average across pollsters and methods, 31% of Americans support the One Big Beautiful Bill, while 54% oppose it. That net rating of -23 is, to put it mildly, absolutely abysmal. That’s true in both absolute terms (having a majority against you with just a third in support is terrible!) and comparative terms.”
“According to data compiled by Georgetown’s Warshaw, the OBBBA is the second most unpopular piece of key legislation since 1990, and likely the most unpopular budget (I have to say ‘likely’ because we don’t have polls of every budget proposal) ever.”
“According to the polls, the only bill more unpopular than this year’s GOP budget bill is the 2017 Republican health care bill, which would have killed the funding mechanism for the Affordable Care Act, cut $800 billion from (basically eliminating) Medicaid, and slashed taxes on high earners.”
July 4th Special
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U.S. Expands Militarized Zones at the Border
Associated Press: “It’s part of a major shift that has thrust the military into border enforcement with Mexico like never before. The move places long stretches of the border under the supervision of nearby military bases, empowering U.S. troops to detain people who enter the country illegally and sidestep a law prohibiting military involvement in civilian law enforcement.”
“The militarization is being challenged in court, and has been criticized by civil rights advocates, humanitarian aid groups and outdoor enthusiasts who object to being blocked from public lands while troops have free rein.”
Democrats Are Weaponizing Trump’s Megabill
Politico: “Ad-makers have quickly prepped attack ads to air as soon as the holiday weekend is over, including in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. House Democrats are plotting to turn the August recess into the opening salvo of the midterms, including through town halls and organizing programs.”
“And Democrats see an opportunity to expand the battleground, going on offense into red areas across the country.”
Republicans Out of Touch with Their Base
Politico: “The Republican base now includes more working-class and low-income people, many of whom receive their health insurance through Medicaid.”
“But the traditional sentiment of many Republican lawmakers toward the social safety-net program — that it provides handouts on taxpayers’ dime — has largely remained the same.”
Bonus Quote of the Day
“They called their own bluff. How many times have they done this? I mean, I’ve been in Congress for two years and five seconds, and they pulled the same stunt 19 times. … The influence of the Freedom Caucus is over.”
— Rep. Derrick Van Orden (R-WI), quoted by Politico.
Trump Wants to Help Ukraine with Air Defense
“President Trump told Ukrainian President Zelensky in a call on Friday that the U.S. wants to help Ukraine with air defense, due to escalating Russian attacks,” Axios reports.
The Senate Will Always Jam the House
Punchbowl News: “After the House just barely passed the initial version of reconciliation in May, Johnson pleaded with Thune publicly and privately to resist changing the bill too much, pointing to his razor-thin vote margin.”
“Sure, Thune ultimately acquiesced to the House’s SALT demands. But the South Dakota Republican made major adjustments to the structure of the Medicaid cuts, extracting an extra $200 billion. Thune happily noted to us this week that the Senate’s version was more conservative than the House’s, in his view.”
“Some of Thune’s own senators were upset about the Medicaid overhaul. When Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.) warned Thune that this approach wouldn’t fly with the House, Thune responded confidently: The House will pass what we send them.”
“Thune was right. While it was a gamble, Thune made the calculation that with Trump pressuring them, House Republicans would pass the measure as is. They did.”
How Republicans Re-Engineered the Tax Code
New York Times: “The product of years of Republican effort, the American tax code now blends traditional supply-side economics with President Trump’s populist 2024 campaign promises.”
White House to Start Notifying Countries About Tariffs
“President Trump said early Friday morning that he is set to resume a set of tariffs that he initially imposed in April on dozens of countries, before pausing them for 90 days to negotiate individual deals,” the New York Times reports.
“Most of those deals have yet to materialize, and businesses in the United States have been left guessing what levies they would be expected to pay on virtually every imported product.”
“Some of them could be even steeper than originally announced, Mr. Trump said in brief remarks to reporters at Andrews Air Force Base upon returning from a rally in Iowa on Thursday.”
CNBC: Trump’s tariff deadline is looming for Europe.
How Trump Got His Bill Across the Finish Line
Wall Street Journal: “Trump’s vague promises and cajoling paid off when the House passed the legislation on Thursday afternoon, underscoring his iron grip on the Republican Party. Just two House Republicans and three GOP senators voted against the bill.”
“It was the latest instance in which threats of Republican dissent melted away in the face of Trump’s popularity inside the party.”
GOP Lawmaker Dumped Stock Before Vote
Rep. Robert Bresnahan (R-PA) voted for President Trump’s budget, conveniently after he dumped his shares of stock in a Medicaid provider, the New Republic reports.
“The Pennsylvania representative sold his Centene stock in May, just one week before he voted ‘yes’ on an early House version of the budget bill that crippled the health care system. By Thursday, when he voted for the final version of the bill, Centene stock had plummeted by 43 percent.”
Trump Begins Task of Selling His Bill
New York Times: “In a campaign-style speech at the Iowa State Fairgrounds, a jubilant Mr. Trump celebrated the bill — and himself, asserting that he was fulfilling his campaign promises and transforming the American economy.”
“But amid the revelry after spending days cajoling lawmakers of his own party to back the legislation, the president now confronts a difficult new phase: selling a bill that polling suggests is broadly unpopular to the American public as Democrats furiously focus on how it helps the wealthy at the expense of working-class people.”
ABC News: Trump takes a megabill victory lap.
Trump Neutered the House Freedom Caucus
Punchbowl News: “The House Freedom Caucus may have to change its name to ‘The Freedom to Vote However Trump Says Caucus’ after what happened this week.”
“The Freedom Caucus was always going to have a difficult time in a Trump-run Washington. You can’t simultaneously pledge loyalty to Trump and then vote against a vengeful president’s agenda.”
“The HFC talked tough but caved repeatedly throughout this process. This latest episode was perhaps the most embarrassing. A number of HFC members said they were going to vote no, issued a three-page document outlining huge problems with the Senate GOP bill, and then they all voted yes, getting nothing substantive in return.”
Quote of the Day
“I think I have more power now. I do.”
— President Trump, speaking to reporters.
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