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U.S. Lost 32,000 Jobs in September

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“The U.S. shed 32,000 private-sector jobs in September, payroll processing giant ADP said on Wednesday,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

“The surprise job loss in September is the latest sign that the labor market is weakening.”

New York Times: “Economists generally consider ADP’s data less reliable than figures from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. But with the federal government shut down, the BLS won’t be releasing the monthly jobs report on Friday as planned. That means economists will be paying more attention than usual to other indicators.”

The Senate Will Keep Voting

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“The Senate is set to vote again at 11 a.m. on the Democrats’ and Republicans’ spending bills to reopen the government, but neither measure is expected to muster the support to pass,” the New York Times reports.

“Senate Republicans have indicated that they intend to keep forcing these votes to put Democrats on the record as opposing the House-passed stopgap bill that would fund the government.”

House Republicans Stay Out of Sight

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NOTUS: “The House will likely not return to Capitol Hill until Oct. 7, a week into a shutdown. But Republican leadership is projecting confidence that they will have the upper hand, both in terms of negotiations with Democrats and in the eyes of the public. Leadership, however, is warning Republican members that even a few missteps could cost them the messaging battle.”

Said one House GOP leadership aide: “Don’t fly to Cancun.”


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Some Democrats Want to Upsize Trump’s New Tax Cuts

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“Some Democrats have found an answer to President Trump’s popular tax cuts for tipped workers, overtime pay and senior citizens: expand them,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

“In bills introduced since the Trump signed the Republicans’ sprawling tax-and-spending legislation on July 4, Democrats are proposing to eliminate some of the GOP’s restrictions on the targeted tax breaks.”

House GOP Campaign Arm Turns Up Pressure

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“House Republicans’ campaign arm is going after Democrats hours after the federal government entered a shutdown at midnight on Wednesday,” Fox News reports.

“A new National Republican Congressional Committee ad being rolled out in 42 battleground districts is aimed at putting pressure on Democratic lawmakers to accept the GOP’s plan and end the shutdown.”

From the ad: “Democrats refused to fund the government. So now military troops, police and Border Patrol lose their paychecks. Because of Democrats, veterans, farmers, small businesses lose critical funding. Disaster relief — cut off.”

“It’s being rolled out in 25 districts represented by Democrats and 17 held by Republicans.”

GOP Senator Predicts Five Democrats Will Cave

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Sen. Steve Daines (R-MT) urged Democrats to approve a temporary funding extension so the shutdown can end and the two parties can reach a long-term agreement, CNBC reports.

Said Daines: “This will come to an end. But in this particular case, it will come to an end when five Democrats join the rest of us and pass this temporary extension.”

He added: “There’s no reason we should be in a shutdown. It costs the taxpayer money, it disrupts government services, and at the end of the day, it doesn’t really deliver any political or policy objective.”

Wall Street Firms Kept Ties With Jeffrey Epstein

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“Jeffrey Epstein never got kicked out of Wall Street’s VIP club,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

“Epstein’s banking and investment activities in the years before his 2019 death were more widespread than previously known, including accounts at several banks as well as large transactions with well-known hedge funds, according to documents reviewed by The Wall Street Journal and people familiar with the matter.”

What to Expect From the Government Shutdown

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Wall Street Journal: “In a shutdown, government offices continue essential work, but tasks deemed nonessential come to a halt, paychecks stop and many workers are furloughed until Congress passes new funding.”

“The impact on both individuals and the economy depends on whether the shutdown lasts a few days or weeks—and on whether the White House moves ahead with its plans to fire workers during the lapse in funding.”

Axios: How the government shutdown could disrupt daily life.

New High Say Supreme Court Is Too Conservative

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Gallup: “Forty-three percent of Americans think the current Supreme Court is too conservative. Though that proportion is not meaningfully different from 2022-2024 readings, it is the highest Gallup has measured by one percentage point.”

“The remainder of Americans are more inclined to say the court is ‘about right’ (36%) rather than ‘too liberal’ (17%).”

Democrats Bet Trump Will Blink First

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“Republicans might be united on the public stage as they face off with Democrats ahead of a government shutdown. But a much more divisive internal fight waits in the wings,” Politico reports.

“The year-end expiration of health insurance subsidies first created under the Affordable Care Act is already splitting the GOP, seeming to vindicate Democrats’ decision to predicate their shutdown messaging on extending the tax credits.”

“Republican leaders have been trying to punt the issue as they work to force Democratic senators to swallow a seven-week stopgap measure ahead of the midnight deadline, insisting they will not broach the subject while agencies are closed.”

“But top Democrats said they heard a different message Monday in their Oval Office meeting with President Donald Trump, leaving the sitdown convinced he’s willing to negotiate on the expiring tax credits in the weeks ahead.”

Bonus Quote of the Day

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“Someone who says ‘I’m against abortion’, but is in favor of the death penalty, is not really pro-life. Someone who says ‘I’m against abortion, but I’m in agreement with the inhuman treatment of immigrants who are in the United States’, I don’t know if that’s pro-life.”

— Pope Leo, quoted by the Catholic News Service.

Democrats See No Need to Capitulate

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“The last time Senate Democrats found themselves taking the blame for a government shutdown, they quickly caved and raced to reopen federal agencies in 2018, as their more moderate members demanded a fast resolution after only three days,” the New York Times reports.

“This shutdown could be different.”

“The Democrats from red states who decried the shutdown strategy as a foolish miscalculation and pressed for an immediate reversal in the showdown with President Trump seven years ago are long gone.”

About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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