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How the AI Bubble Will Pop
Derek Thompson: “Some people think artificial intelligence will be the most important technology of the 21st century. Others insist that it is an obvious economic bubble. I believe both sides are right. Like the 19th century railroads and the 20th century broadband Internet build-out, AI will rise first, crash second, and eventually change the world.”
“The numbers just don’t make sense. Tech companies are projected to spend about $400 billion this year on infrastructure to train and operate AI models. By nominal dollar sums, that is more than any group of firms has ever spent to do just about anything.”
“The Apollo program allocated about $300 billion in inflation-adjusted dollars to get America to the moon between the early 1960s and the early 1970s. The AI buildout requires companies to collectively fund a new Apollo program, not every 10 years, but every 10 months.“
Bessent Warns Shutdown Could Hurt the Economy
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC that U.S. economic growth could be hurt by the government shutdown.
Said Bessent: “This isn’t the way to have a discussion, shutting down the government and lowering the GDP. We could see a hit to the GDP, a hit to growth and a hit to working America.”
Trump Meeting to Discuss Cuts to ‘Democrat Agencies’
President Trump said on Truth Social that he would meet today with budget director Russell Vought — “he of Project 2025 fame” — “to determine which of the many Democrat Agencies, most of which are a political SCAM, he recommends to be cut.”
He added: “I can’t believe the Radical Left Democrats gave me this unprecedented opportunity.”
Bloomberg: “The president’s comments escalate a threat from Republicans to use the shutdown to slash the federal bureaucracy. The White House had threatened to announce job cuts as soon as Thursday.”
Wall Street Journal: “Russell Vought has been planning for this moment for years.”
More Blame Trump and Republicans for Shutdown
A new Washington Post poll found significantly more Americans blame President Trump and congressional Republicans for the shutdown than Democrats, though many say they are not sure.
Important takeaway: A large majority support Democrats’ call to extend federal health insurance subsidies in general — though just under half support the party demanding this if it extends the government shutdown.
Trump’s ‘Free’ Plane Apparently Had Strings Attached
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Bonus Quote of the Day
“We, as Republicans, have never had so much moral high ground on a government funding bill in our lives… I just don’t see why we would squander it.”
— Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-ND), quoted by Semafor, opposing plans by the Trump administration to permanently lay off workers.
Trust in Media at New Low
Gallup: “Americans’ confidence in the mass media has edged down to a new low, with just 28% expressing a ‘great deal’ or ‘fair amount’ of trust in newspapers, television and radio to report the news fully, accurately and fairly.”
“This is down from 31% last year and 40% five years ago.”
An Autocracy of Dunces
Paul Krugman: “If America still had a fully functioning democracy, Donald Trump’s speech Tuesday to the assembled generals would have ended his presidency.”
“Trump treated the event like a political rally and was clearly taken aback by the refusal of the audience to applaud or laugh at his jokes. Delivering a nakedly partisan speech to a mandated assembly of military officers was a gross violation of the Hatch Act. The content —telling the officers to be ready to use force against U.S. citizens — was clearly an impeachable offense. In an earlier era, Trump’s incoherent ranting would have paved the way for his immediate removal from office under the 25th Amendment.”
Grocery Price Pain Rises
Americans say it’s harder to afford their groceries now than it was a year ago, a warning sign for President Trump and Republicans, in the latest Axios Vibes survey.
Exchange of the Day
Rep. Madeleine Dean (D-PA) cornered Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) in a hot mic moment:
DEAN: The president is unhinged. He is unwell.
JOHNSON: A lot of folks on your side are too.
DEAN: Oh my god, please. That performance in front of the generals?
JOHNSON: I didn’t see it.
DEAN: It’s so dangerous! Our allies are looking elsewhere. Our enemies are laughing. You have a president who is unwell.
How Tom Homan Tried to Cash In on Trump’s Deportations
ProPublica: “A Pennsylvania businessman who had Tom Homan on his payroll led companies to believe his connections to the future border czar could help advance their bids for government work.”
New York City Sees Record Low Crime
“As President Donald Trump calls for military intervention in cities across the nation, gun violence and major crime are at a record low in America’s largest city, the New York Police Department announced Wednesday,” ABC News reports.
“There were fewer shootings in NYC during the first nine months of the year than in the same time period of any prior year.”
“The record-low number of shootings coincided with a broader drop in crime, including in the subways.”
Young and Black Voters Sour on Trump
“President Donald Trump’s surprising performance among Black Americans and younger voters helped him win the popular vote in the 2024 election. Those constituencies are still waiting for a return on their investment,” Politico reports.
“The unemployment rate for Americans between the ages of 16 and 24 has jumped to 10.5 percent from 9 percent since Trump returned to the White House, a period that coincided with a marked decline in their participation in the labor force. Black joblessness has also climbed, with federal workforce cuts and a broad slowdown in hiring contributing to the rise. And both groups saw their paychecks drop through the first half of the year, despite an acceleration in weekly earnings for workers overall.”
Quote of the Day
“Republicans must use this opportunity of Democrat forced closure to clear out dead wood, waste, and fraud.”
— President Trump, on Truth Social, promising “billions of dollars” in savings.
The Wrong Shade of Red
Britain had 66 enormous new American flags specially made for President Trump’s state visit last month — after U.S. officials complained the U.K.’s existing collection featured the wrong shade of red, the Daily Telegraph reports.
Where the Shutdown Stands
Punchbowl News: “There are some informal bipartisan talks centering around Democrats’ chief demand: an extension of the Obamacare enhanced premium tax credits. We took you inside that big bipartisan Senate floor huddle in Wednesday’s Midday edition.”
“But they’re just that — talks. Party leaders aren’t directly involved. There’s no Senate ‘gang’ to break the deadlock. And the fundamentals of the showdown haven’t changed.”
“Democrats say they can’t trust Republicans and the White House to clinch a bipartisan deal on Obamacare subsidies without a forcing mechanism. Republicans maintain that negotiations can’t take place until the government is reopened. Even then, getting Hill Republicans on board with an Obamacare deal would be a major challenge, with conservatives opposing any extension. Which brings us back to square one — Democrats’ desire for a guarantee that Thune simply can’t give them.”
Spanberger Holds 10-Point Lead for Virginia Governor
A new Emerson College survey of the Virginia Governor’s race finds Abigail Spanberger (D) leading Winsome Earle-Sears (R), 52% to 42%, with 5% of voters undecided.
Those who have already voted early in Virginia report voting for Spanberger, 60% to 38%, while likely voters who have yet to cast a ballot support Spanberger 50% to 43%.
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