“Federal officials are investigating former special counsel Jack Smith after President Donald Trump and other prominent Republicans have alleged that his investigations into then-candidate Trump amounted to illegal political activity,” NBC News reports.
Economic Fears of Investors Are Here
“For months, the U.S. economy appeared to be weathering the disruptive effects of President Donald Trump’s trade and immigration policies,” the Washington Post reports.
“But over the course of 72 hours, that sunny outlook darkened, as the latest government data this week showed the president’s revolutionary remaking of the world’s largest economy had hit a snag.”
“Friday’s disappointing jobs report revealed a labor market that is much weaker than either the White House or Federal Reserve understood. Inflation, the voter irritant that helped return Trump to the Oval Office, is proving newly stubborn. And consumers are growing more cautious with their spending.”
Thune and Schumer Struggle Over Possible Deal
“Senate Majority Leader John Thune and Minority Leader Chuck Schumer are engaged in high-stakes negotiations with the White House over nominations, federal funding and whether the Trump administration will offer another rescissions package this fall,“ Punchbowl News reports.
“If a deal happens — and it’s not clear as of this Saturday afternoon that it will — that may be a signal that a government shutdown can be avoided later this year.”
“If not, Senate Republicans are threatening to change Senate rules before they leave for the August recess. Not only would that demonstrate a further breakdown in the Senate’s once-prized comity, but it would also make clear that a government shutdown is likely once the current funding runs out on Oct. 1.”
Chinese Hackers Are Playing the Long Game
“Chinese hackers are targeting more sensitive U.S. targets than ever — not to smash and grab, but to bide their time,” Axios reports.
“Beijing is investing in stealthy, persistent access to U.S. systems — quietly building up its abilities to disrupt everything from federal agencies to water utilities in the event of escalation with Washington.”
India Defies Trump Over Russian Oil
“Indian officials said on Saturday that they would keep purchasing cheap oil from Russia despite a threat of penalties from President Trump, the latest twist in an issue that New Delhi thought it had settled,” the New York Times reports.
“The defiance of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government reflected increasing frustration with a relationship that was once much praised but has been souring rapidly. There is a growing sense in India that its leaders should not allow increasingly volatile American policymaking to shape its choices on vital energy supplies for its huge population, 1.4 billion people.”
Trump’s Authoritarian Streak Grows Stronger
“A five-alarm fire tore through the economic establishment Friday after President Trump ousted the government’s top labor statistician, accusing her — without evidence — of ‘rigging’ a weak jobs report,” Axios reports.
“It’s just one glaring example from a week that bore many authoritarian hallmarks — purging dissenters, rewriting history, criminalizing opposition and demanding total institutional loyalty.”
“The overwhelming, all-consuming nature of Trump-driven news cycles makes it difficult to discern partisan hysteria from true democratic backsliding.”
“But apply any of these five storylines from the past week to a foreign leader — or even a past U.S. president — and it reads like an authoritarian playbook.”
Trump Hits Brazil with 50% Tariffs
“Products imported to the U.S. from Brazil — including almost a third of the supply relied on every day by America’s coffee drinkers — are subject to a 50% tariff beginning Friday, not because of Brazil’s trade policies, but because of President Donald Trump’s relationship with the country’s former strongman president Jair Bolsonaro, and because of the actions of one of the justices of Brazil’s Supreme Court,” NBC News reports.
Business Leaders Finally Get Clarity on Tariffs
Politico: “A half-dozen leaders from financial firms, corporations and trade groups said in interviews that the series of tariff rates Trump unveiled Thursday night were steeper than they had expected, and they worry that the dizzying kaleidoscope of policies he’s applying to different countries will complicate global commerce. The economy is already showing cracks, with the job market slowing and stocks tumbling Friday.”
“Many business leaders fear that this week’s worrying economic numbers are only the beginning of a more sustained downturn.”
Trump Blocks Funding for CDC Health Programs
“The Trump administration is blocking funding for a swath of public-health programs run by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the latest flashpoint in a push by the White House to withhold money already approved by Congress,”the Wall Street Journal reports.
“A range of programs won’t be fully funded under the freeze. These include youth violence prevention programs, research on preventing gun injuries and deaths and efforts targeting diabetes, chronic kidney disease and tobacco use. It couldn’t be determined how much the withheld money would amount to, but it could be as high as $200 million, according to one of the people familiar with the matter. Another person familiar estimated the amount to be more than $300 million.”
Democratic Governors Fight Back on Redistricting
“A group of Democratic governors is urging its colleagues to get tough in countering Republican-backed efforts to gerrymander Texas’ congressional districts,” Politico reports.
Said Kansas Gov. Laura Kelly (D): “I’m not a big believer in unilateral disarmament.”
The Downballot had a good discussion on the redistricting battles.
Appeals Court Allows Trump to End Union Protections
“A federal appeals court on Friday allowed President Trump to move forward with an order instructing a broad swath of government agencies to end collective bargaining with federal unions,” the New York Times reports.
Senate Control May Hinge on Trump
Playbook: “Whatever else is happening in these races from week to week, the single most important factor determining the outcome of the 2026 Senate election cycle is President Donald Trump. Nothing else is even close.”
“His approval ratings are part of this equation. Trump is famously rangebound in the polls, with a low ceiling and a high floor, but his popularity next year will matter — midterm history shows there is a correlation between a president’s ratings and his party’s fate.”
“But Trump’s unique ability to unleash the forces of electoral chaos is what really makes him the single most influential character…”
Key takeaway: “It wouldn’t take more than a few impulsive, undisciplined moves — such as endorsing slavishly loyal but unelectable candidates in key races, or creating messy primaries by torpedoing shaky GOP incumbents — to create just enough opportunities for Democrats to compete on what is otherwise an unforgiving Senate map.”
Texas House Panel Advances Gerrymandered Map
“A Republican-led committee of the Texas House voted on Saturday to advance a new congressional map drawn to flip five Democratic House districts in favor of Republican candidates, setting up a showdown over redistricting next week,” the New York Times reports.
“The vote came after a marathon 15-hour hearing on Friday in which the committee heard public testimony, almost all of it firmly against the aggressive changes that affect districts in Houston, Dallas and Austin, and along the U.S.-Mexico border.”
Economic Data Is Now Less Trustworthy
Wall Street Journal: “Trump’s move throws the quality of America’s statistical apparatus into question. The immediate worry among economists and former officials following Trump’s move was that it opened the door for the economic data to be distorted for political reasons. Federal Reserve officials rely on U.S. economic statistics to make timely decisions on setting monetary policy, while investors and businesses depend on them to allocate capital efficiently.”
Said economist Justin Wolfers: You can’t bend economic reality, but you can break the trust of markets. And biased data yields worse policy.”
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Quote of the Day
“She’s become a star. It’s that face, it’s that brain, it’s those lips, the way they move, they move like she’s a machine gun.”
— President Trump, talking to Newsmax about White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt.
Consumers Begin to Feel the Pinch of Tariffs
“Companies are starting to shift more tariff-related costs onto consumers,” the New York Times reports.
“Many businesses chose to absorb the additional tax during the early days of President Trump’s trade war. But evidence is emerging that they are running out of options to keep prices stable in the face of deteriorating profit margins, suggesting that the tariffs could have a more pronounced effect on prices in the months ahead.”
CNN: Here’s what could get more expensive from Trump’s massive tariff hikes.
Bloomberg: Tracking every Trump tariff and its economic effect.
The Wild Week in the American Economy
“For months, the economy sent off mixed signals, with employers and consumers expressing anxiety in surveys but underlying economic data generally solid,” the Wall Street Journal reports.
“This past week, the fog lifted. On Wednesday, official data showed economic output and consumer spending slowed markedly over the first half of the year. Later that day, the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady, citing inflation and a solid labor market.”
“It was vindicated by another report Thursday that showed price pressures remained stubborn, then contradicted in spectacular fashion Friday by a lower-than-expected rise of 73,000 jobs in July accompanied by a significant downward revision to the prior two months. Job growth in the past three months was the lowest since 2010, except during the peak months of the pandemic. President Trump was so upset at the data he fired the head of the statistical agency that produced it.”
Bryan Mena: Did Trump just royally screw up?
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