“To the Iranians, the Strait of Hormuz now matters more than the nuclear program. The nuclear program was symbolic, but didn’t provide them with any deterrence. Now, the only reason why they are surviving this war is because of the strait. The Iranian thinking is that, at the end, the strait must remain under their control because it is their only deterrence and only source of revenue.”

— Ex-State Department official Vali Nasr, quoted by the Wall Street Journal.

The fate of the crew of the U.S. fighter jet shot down over Iran was unclear, as American officials scrambled to mount a search and rescue operation before Iran could get to any survivors, the New York Times reports.

“The situation creates a military and diplomatic challenge for the United States, as President Trump has threatened in recent days to bombard Iran ‘back to the Stone Ages.’ Over the past 24 hours, the United States and Iran have been trading attacks on military and civilian infrastructure in the region.”

A local channel of Iranian state television claimed Friday that a U.S. fighter pilot ejected from their aircraft over southwestern Iran, the AP reports.

The anchor on the channel read the following announcement: “If you capture the enemy pilot or pilots alive and hand them over to the police, you will receive a precious prize.”

President Trump, on Truth Social this morning:

“With a little more time, we can easily OPEN THE HORMUZ STRAIT, TAKE THE OIL, & MAKE A FORTUNE. IT WOULD BE A ‘GUSHER’ FOR THE WORLD???”

Wall Street Journal: “It is a tone shift for Trump, who last week said he was willing to end the war without a reopened strait and also has urged allies to lead such a mission, including in a Wednesday-night address to the nation. Trump in that speech also signaled a possible escalation in the war, saying the U.S. would hit Iran “extremely hard” over the following two to three weeks.”

President Trump threatened to escalate U.S. military strikes on Iran to include infrastructure like bridges and electric power plants as he urged the regime to agree to a peace deal “FAST.”

Daily Beast: “The president is becoming increasingly frantic as he sinks deeper into a crisis of his own making.”

Axios: “NATO is a promise, and now it’s broken.”

“The alliance was built on the premise that an attack on one member is an attack on all. President Trump has made that conditional: if you won’t help me in my war, I might not show up for yours.”

“NATO’s mutual defensive framework doesn’t actually apply in the case of Iran, a war taking place far from the alliance’s territory. But it could be the death knell for the most powerful and consequential alliance of the past eight decades.”

Wall Street Journal: “Tehran’s ability to control this international waterway, through which one-fifth of the worldwide oil supply used to pass, has become Iran’s biggest leverage against the U.S., its Gulf neighbors and the global economy.”

“Whether the war ends in a success or defeat for Iran depends first and foremost on whether Tehran emerges from this conflict still holding the strait—and, with it, the keys to the worldwide energy markets.”

Semafor: “China has a better approval rating across the world than the US does, representing a shift since President Donald Trump took office.”

“According to new Gallup polling, a median of 36% of those polled across more than 130 countries approve of China’s leadership, while 31% approve of US leadership — the largest edge Beijing has had over Washington in almost two decades.”