The Continuing Mystery of Feel-Bad Economics
Paul Krugman: “According to Donald Trump, the U.S. economy is doing great. We’re enjoying a huge boom, there’s no inflation, and we’re all getting tax cuts. We have prosperity like nobody has ever seen before.”
“But it’s probably not news to you that reality doesn’t agree. Inflation was stubbornly elevated even before the Iran debacle, while growth has been sluggish. Jobs for entry-level workers are hard to find while mortgage and car loan rates are up. Gas-pump prices are above $4 on average and around 10 million Americans are projected to lose health insurance by 2028. Yet the one economic variable that stands out, that really is like nothing anyone has ever seen before,is consumer confidence: The long-running University of Michigan index of consumer sentiment just hit its lowest point ever recorded.”
“And that’s a puzzle. Obviously, I’m no defender either of Trump’s policies or of his lies. But while the U.S. economy isn’t nearly as good as he claims, it’s objectively not bad enough to justify the worst consumer sentiment in history — worse than during the stagflation at the end of the 1970s, worse than in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis.”
Super PACs Raising Massive Money for the Midterms
Politico: “In the 2018 midterms, only five super PACs raised more than $50 million over the entire cycle, according to data from OpenSecrets, which tracks money in politics, with four of the five being each party’s traditional caucus-aligned groups.”
“Now, at least seven super PACs have already exceeded that threshold, according to a Politico tally, with the midterm election cycle only starting to heat up.”
Bannon Predicts Republicans Will Hold the House
“Steve Bannon on Thursday offered a rosy view of the populist right’s influence — and of Republicans’ fortunes, predicting they would keep the U.S. House this fall,” Semafor reports.
Said Bannon: “I feel better than ever.”
“He touted the success of conservative Senate candidate Ken Paxton in Texas and polls showing that less than a majority of South Carolina voters approve of GOP Sen. Lindsey Graham, whose hawkishness has made him a frequent political punching bag for Bannon.”
Susan Collins Would Not Vote to Authorize Iran War
Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) said Thursday that she believes the U.S. war in Iran will need congressional authorization once it hits a 60-day mark that past legislation established for military conflicts — and she doesn’t think she’d vote for it, Semafor reports.
Said Collins: “It is very likely that I would vote not to authorize further hostilities.”
Trump Turns Totally Toxic for Europe’s Far Right
Politico: “Donald Trump has become so politically toxic in Europe that even his closest ideological allies increasingly view him as a liability.”
America Wakes Up to AI’s Dangerous Power
The Economist: “America’s free-wheeling treatment of AI looks as if it is coming to an end. The reason is that the models’ dizzying progress also poses a threat to America’s own national security, unnerving members of the Trump administration previously more inclined to worry about overregulation.”
“At the same time, growing resentment among American voters is turning AI into a political lightning-rod. A laissez-faire approach is no longer politically tenable or strategically wise.”
“The watershed was Anthropic’s announcement of Claude Mythos on April 7th. The model-maker’s latest creation is so startlingly good at finding software vulnerabilities that, in the wrong hands, it would threaten critical infrastructure, from banks to hospitals. AI models increasingly pose other risks, too, from biosecurity hazards to industrial-scale scamming.”
Financial Times: “Senior international financial officials have warned the latest AI models from U.S. tech companies could threaten the world banking system by exposing weaknesses in lenders’ cyber defense.”
U.S. Blockade Remains Despite Iran Saying Strait Is Open
“President Trump announced that the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports will remain in full force, casting uncertainty on whether the Strait of Hormuz would be fully open to commercial shipping in the near future,” the Wall Street Journal reports.
Migrants Pretend to Be Gay to Stay in the U.K.
“A shadow industry of law firms and advisers is charging thousands of pounds to help migrants pretend to be gay in order to stay in the UK,” the BBC reports.
“In the first part of a major undercover investigation, we reveal how migrants whose visas are due to run out are being given fake cover stories and instructed in how to obtain fabricated evidence, including supporting letters, photographs and medical reports.”
“They then apply for asylum claiming to be gay and in fear for their lives if they return to Pakistan or Bangladesh.”
‘The Star’ Is Born
New York Times: “NOTUS, a Washington political news website with ambitious plans to fill a void it says was left by deep cuts at The Washington Post, will be renamed The Star and relaunch in the first week of June.”
Iran Opens the Strait of Hormuz
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said the Strait of Hormuz “is completely open for commercial ships for the remainder of the ceasefire,” NBC News reports.
Shortly after Iran’s announcement, President Trump responded in a social media post: “IRAN HAS JUST ANNOUNCED THAT THE STRAIT OF IRAN IS FULLY OPEN AND READY FOR FULL PASSAGE. THANK YOU!”
Trump Officials Want Mythos Despite Anthropic Blacklist
“The White House and Anthropic are in active discussions about deploying the AI firm’s powerful new model, Mythos Preview, within the federal government despite ongoing efforts to blacklist the company as a supply chain risk,” Axios reports.
“Anthropic is in a bitter feud with the Pentagon, but even U.S. officials who dislike the company concede that it’s building tools that could aid U.S. national security — or harm it, if they fall into the wrong hands.”
U.S. Considers $20 Billion Cash-for-Uranium Deal with Iran
“The U.S. and Iran are negotiating over a three-page plan to end the war, with one element under discussion being that the U.S. would release $20 billion in frozen Iranian funds in return for Iran giving up its stockpile of enriched uranium,” Axios reports.
Trump Rewrites the History of January 6
“Since President Donald Trump returned to the White House last year, his administration has enthusiastically — and steadily — embraced his campaign to try to rewrite the story of the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol,” the Washington Post reports.
“Trump immediately granted a blanket pardon to nearly everyone charged or convicted in connection with the attack, calling them ‘patriots.’ Earlier this year, his White House posted a falsehood-strewn retelling of that day.”
“Then, this week, his administration moved to vacate some of the last remaining and most serious criminal convictions stemming from the riot.”
Quote of the Day
“Does anybody actually know what the hell is in this thing?”
— Rep. Jim McGovern (D-MA), quoted by Punchbowl News on the FISA bill, after some proposed changes were written in by hand at the last minute.
Iran Peace Deal Could Take 6 Months
“Some Gulf Arab and European leaders believe that a US-Iran peace deal will take about six months to be agreed and that the warring sides should extend their ceasefire to cover that timeframe,” Bloomberg reports.
Ken Paxton Holds Solid Lead Over John Cornyn
A new Texas Public Opinion Research survey in finds Ken Paxton (R) leads Sen. John Cornyn (R) in their U.S. Senate runoff, 48% to 40% with 11% undecided.
Key takeaway: A Trump endorsement isn’t enough to flip the race. If Trump endorses Cornyn, Paxton still leads 45% to 42%. A Trump endorsement of Paxton would widen his lead to 55% to 35%. 49% of likely Republican runoff voters say a Trump endorsement would not influence their vote at all or not much.
The Scapegoat Scam
Adam Serwer: “The Hungarian strongman Viktor Orbán, who lost his election in a landslide on Sunday after 16 years in power, presented himself as a defender of Western civilization. But at best, his lofty rhetoric was a code for bigotry and a justification for the persecution of minorities; at worst, it was a scam to fleece Hungarians by persuading them to blame everyone but those responsible for their problems. Maybe both.”
“Eventually Hungarians decided that a major source of their problems was Orbán himself. Maybe someday Americans will come to a similar realization about Orbán’s great admirer, Donald Trump, who praised the former Hungarian leader before the election as a ‘fantastic man’ who had done a ‘fantastic job.'”
“Orbánism was, more or less, a model for what Trump and the Republican Party are trying to do in the United States.”
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