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Global Energy Markets Are on the Verge of Disaster

April 22, 2026 at 5:16 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

The Economist: “Fifty days into the Iran war the world has lost 550 million barrels of Gulf crude—nearly 2% of last year’s global output. Every month Hormuz stays closed, the world misses out on 7 million tonnes of liquefied natural gas (LNG), worth 2% of its annual supply. Yet in Western countries, which host the largest futures markets, pain remains limited. Petrol is a bit pricier, but most households can still afford to drive. Trucks keep trucking. Planes continue to fly. Fuel stocks remain close to pre-war levels.”

“This comforting picture is deeply misleading. By April 20th the last few oil tankers to cross Hormuz before the war began reached their destinations, in Malaysia and California. There is no buffer left to protect the world from the supply shock, at a time of the year when demand from holiday drivers starts to pick up.”

Trump Bolsters Gulf Force

April 22, 2026 at 5:14 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“President Trump’s scope to escalate military action against Iran is set to widen within days, as a third aircraft carrier and thousands of elite US troops approach the region,” the Financial Times reports.

“While the president said on Tuesday he would extend his ceasefire with Iran, the US military has been pressing on with deployments to the Middle East that significantly expand its capabilities.l

“Trump said on Tuesday that the US and Israel had used the pause in their weeks-long air campaign against Iran to restock and that he was ‘ready to go’ if the attempts to broker an end to the war collapsed.”

Four Virginia House Seats Shift Towards Democrats

April 21, 2026 at 10:06 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball: “Virginia voters on Tuesday evening approved a new Democratic U.S. House gerrymander.”

“As a result, we are moving four House ratings in favor of Democrats.”

“The new Virginia map is not completely set, though, as the Supreme Court of Virginia could still revert to the old map if it finds that Virginia Democrats did not follow proper procedure in presenting this constitutional amendment to voters.”

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Virginia Approves Early Redistricting

April 21, 2026 at 8:59 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Virginia voters approved a referendum to draw new congressional districts that could add as many as four Democratic seats to the House of Representatives, awarding Democrats an advantage in the national redistricting war begun by Republicans,” the Washington Post reports.

New York Times: “The victory by Democrats in Virginia brings the national redistricting war roughly to a draw, effectively blunting the advantage Republicans built last year when they redrew maps for a partisan edge in Texas and other states.”

“Beyond the red-versus-blue calculations, the vote is likely to further buoy Democrats as they seek to capitalize on President Trump’s low approval ratings and the unpopular war with Iran.”

Court Allows Ten Commandments in Texas Classrooms

April 21, 2026 at 8:13 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“An appellate court ruled Tuesday that Texas may require that public school classrooms display the Ten Commandments, a significant win for the conservative campaign to break down the legal walls between church and state and inject more religion into the public square,” the Washington Post reports. 

“The ruling came from the conservative 5th Circuit Court of Appeals. The case is widely expected to head next to the Supreme Court, where the conservative majority has been steadily removing restrictions on government support for religion.”

Results from Virginia’s Redistricting Referendum

April 21, 2026 at 7:00 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Virginians went to the polls to decide the fate of the high-stakes redistricting referendum that could tip the scales toward Democrats in the race for control of the House in the midterms.

Most polls suggested it could be close.

Leave your reactions in the comments as the results come in.

House Focus Shifts to Cory Mills

April 21, 2026 at 5:41 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Punchbowl News: “Mills is under investigation by the Ethics Committee for alleged sexual misconduct and other violations. Many Democrats — along with some Republicans — have called for his expulsion.”

“Rep. Nancy Mace (R-S.C.) introduced a Mills expulsion resolution on Monday. Mace still hasn’t officially noticed the privileged resolution.”

Trump Extends Iran Cease-Fire Indefinitely

April 21, 2026 at 4:24 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

President Trump announced Tuesday that the U.S. will extend its cease-fire with Iran and continue the blockade of the country’s ports until its leaders could present “a unified proposal,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

New York Times: “It was a starkly different tone from the American president, who just this morning had threatened a military attack if Iran did not agree to U.S. demands.”

Said Trump just this morning: “I expect to be bombing. The military is raring to go.”

Trump’s Approval on the Economy Sinks

April 21, 2026 at 4:21 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new AP-NORC poll finds Donald Trump’s approval rating on the economy dropped to 30%, down from 38% in last month’s poll.

How Bad Could Things Get for Republicans in November?

April 21, 2026 at 3:39 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

The Economist runs a midterm election forecast for the House and Senate:

  • Democrats have a 95% chance of flipping the House
  • Democrats also have a 46% probability of taking the Senate

“Although individual House races are thinly polled and frequently deliver upsets, district-specific surprises usually cancel out across hundreds of concurrent elections.”

“If a party wins far more seats than expected, that is usually because it wins more votes than expected nationwide. And in modern times the national popular vote for the House has generally landed close to estimates based on ‘generic-ballot’ surveys, which ask respondents which party they plan to support in Congress. Among decided voters, Democrats now lead these polls by around 53% to 47%.” 

RFK Jr. Refused to Commit to Backing New CDC Director

April 21, 2026 at 3:14 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. on Tuesday refused to commit to supporting the vaccine recommendations of President Trump’s nominee to lead the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention,” the New York Times reports.

“The nominee, Dr. Erica Schwartz, has publicly supported immunizations and drawn applause from mainstream public health leaders.”

Trump Plans to Send Afghans Who Aided U.S. to Congo

April 21, 2026 at 3:12 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

New York Times: “After halting a U.S. resettlement program for Afghans who helped the American war effort, President Trump is in talks to send as many as 1,100 of them to the Democratic Republic of Congo, an aid worker briefed on the plan said Tuesday.”

“The group includes interpreters for the U.S. military, former members of the Afghan Special Operations forces and family members of American service members. More than 400 children are among them.”

Ron DeSantis Is ‘Begging’ Trump for an Appointment

April 21, 2026 at 2:23 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“President Trump has told confidants that Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) is ‘begging’ for a job in Trump’s administration — including attorney general,” Axios reports.

“DeSantis also has expressed interest in being secretary of defense and even a spot on the U.S. Supreme Court.”

Trump’s Fed Nominee Won’t Say If Biden Won the Election

April 21, 2026 at 2:09 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Kevin Warsh, President Trump’s nominee for chairman of the Federal Reserve, declined to say Tuesday whether former President Biden defeated Trump in the 2020 election, The Hill reports.

Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick Resigns

April 21, 2026 at 1:59 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick (D-FL) has resigned, Punchbowl News reports.

Cherfilus-McCormick faced an Ethics Committee hearing today after being found guilty by the panel of 25 violations. Expulsion was a possible recommendation from the panel.

Cherfilus-McCormick still faces criminal charges for allegedly diverting millions of dollars in emergency Covid funding to her 2021 special election campaign.

Trump’s Approval Falls Into George W. Bush Territory

April 21, 2026 at 1:26 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Aaron Blake: “It was almost exactly this time 20 years ago that the bottom began to fall out on George W. Bush’s approval ratings. And as Bush’s numbers in most polls fell into the 30s for the first time in late winter and early spring, the culprit was clear: the Iraq war.”

“History could be repeating itself with President Donald Trump in 2026. Just swap Iraq with Iran.”

Is Kash Patel the Next to Go?

April 21, 2026 at 1:11 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Playbook: “Those embroiled in scandal (Kristi Noem, Lori Chavez-DeRemer), or distrusted by Trump’s base (Pam Bondi), have been first out the door…”

“This may not bode well for Patel, who has issues on both these fronts. His reputation in MAGA world hasn’t recovered from his role in the initial handling of the Epstein files, while the list of colorful stories (and videos!) about his approach to the job of FBI chief gets longer every month.”

“For his part, Patel insists it’s all media smears, and yesterday’s $250 million defamation suit against The Atlantic showed just how hard he’ll push back. And of course, the White House did tell The Atlantic that he’s doing a great job.”

“Worth remembering: Trump voiced support for both Noem and Bondi back in February, and for Chavez-DeRemer two weeks ago.”

The Iran War’s Unexpected Winner

April 21, 2026 at 1:07 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

The early read on the Iran war is counterintuitive: for all the strikes on its military infrastructure and President Trump’s chest thumping about victory, Iran is emerging with more leverage, not less.

At the center of it is the Strait of Hormuz.

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About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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