Michael Kern: “For more than two decades, Beijing has used a remarkably simple strategy to maintain its stranglehold on the global rare earth supply chain: whenever a Western company would get serious about building an independent processing capability, China would act to crash prices.”

“And the result is generally the same: the investment case falls apart, the funding disappears, and the company folds. China’s monopoly survives another cycle.”

Robert Pape: “When Donald Trump ordered U.S. warships to escort commercial tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, he did more than protect shipping.”

“He made a public bet – and tying his hands if it fails.”

“He is betting that Iran will not strike a ship under American protection.”

“If Trump wins the bet, the United States stabilizes the corridor. If it fails even once, Washington must escalate—or accept humiliation in full view of the world.”

“There is no third outcome.”

“The U.S. and Iran are teetering on the brink of a dangerous new phase of the war, as both turn to military force to break a standoff in the Strait of Hormuz that has paralyzed shipping and imposed costs on both sides,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

“The return to a more openly violent chapter will test both sides. Each has reason to try to force an end to the current paralysis in the strait. But they also face substantial risks if the skirmishing escalates out of control—for Iran, greater damage to its economy and leadership, and for President Trump, deeper involvement in a war that is unpopular at home.”

Washington Post: U.S. and Iran exchange taunts as attacks imperil fragile ceasefire.

“U.S. intelligence assessments indicate that the time Iran would need to build a nuclear weapon has not changed since last summer, when analysts estimated that a U.S.-Israeli attack had pushed back the timeline to up to a year,” Reuters reports.

“The assessments of Tehran’s nuclear program remain broadly unchanged even after two months of a war that U.S. President Donald Trump launched in part to stop the Islamic Republic from developing a nuclear bomb.”

“Hundreds of vessels were seen clustering near Dubai on Tuesday, as more ships moved away from a still-empty Strait of Hormuz in response to Iran’s efforts to widen its area of control,” Bloomberg reports.

President Trump won’t say whether the U.S.-Iran truce remains in place after both sides fired shots in the Strait of Hormuz, CNN reports.

He also warned Iranian forces they would be “blown off the face of the Earth” if they targeted US ships in the strait or the Persian Gulf.

Wall Street Journal: “President Trump’s desire to end the Iran war is being put to the test after Tehran fired at American warships on Monday and violently disrupted a U.S. effort to revive shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.”

“U.S. officials say Trump for days has toggled between two competing impulses: severely punishing Iran for failing to abandon its nuclear work, and avoiding a significant escalation that could draw the U.S. deeper into a Middle East conflict. Trump wants to avoid a fresh bombing campaign, officials say, preferring a negotiated end to Tehran’s nuclear advancements and the weekslong war that has raised gas prices and hurt the global economy.”

“Now, Trump has little choice but to make a decision between ordering a fresh round of airstrikes against Iran or brushing off Tehran’s provocations and charging ahead with his diplomatic initiative.”