“The Pentagon put the cost of the war on Iran at ‘closer’ to $29 billion, roughly $4 billion more than two weeks ago,” the New York Times reports.
FBI Questions CIA Officers in Brennan Probe
“The FBI has begun interviewing current and former CIA employees as part of the Department of Justice’s investigation into ex-CIA director John Brennan over his role in an intelligence finding that Russia interfered in the 2016 U.S. election to help Donald Trump,” Reuters reports.
Wall Street Journal Subpoenaed in Leak Inevstigation
“The Wall Street Journal received grand jury subpoenas for reporters’ records as part of a Justice Department leak investigation, as the outlet said that they would oppose the effort,” Deadline reports.
Trump Has Gone From Unpredictable to Unreliable
Vivian Salama: “Reliability. It’s a word I hear constantly from officials around the world when the conversation turns to the Trump administration—and especially, these days, the Iran war. In the past, Trump supporters, and even many U.S. allies, viewed Trump’s famous unpredictability as unorthodox but at times effective, a useful means of wrong-footing opponents or shaking up the tired status quo.”
“Many now see something more unsettling in Trump’s international relations, including in the 10-week war: What once was viewed as strategic unpredictability now feels like destabilizing unreliability.”
The Shadow Docket for Dummies
John Oliver explains the “shadow docket” — which has become a shortcut for rapidly advancing the Trump administration’s agenda through the nation’s highest court.
Trump Has Another Medical Check Up Later This Month
“President Donald Trump is scheduled to see doctors for a medical and dental checkup this month — his fourth publicized visit to medical experts since returning to office — in what the White House describes as an annual physical and regular preventive care,” the AP reports.
Trump Says the White House Was a ‘Shit House’
President Trump complained that the White House was a “shit house” when he moved back in for his second term, claiming that the columns were “falling down” and plaster “falling off,” Mediaite reports.
Trump Faces Uphill Climb on Suspending Gas Tax
“President Trump’s endorsement of suspending federal gas taxes pushes the idea higher on the political radar, but it still faces long odds,” Axios reports.
“Why it matters: Some Republicans rushed to introduce bills, and a few Democrats have already endorsed the idea — but there are still serious obstacles that could keep Trump’s comments from becoming reality.”
America Is Scaling Sin in Real Time
Axios: “Las Vegas has long been known as Sin City for its 24/7 access to all kinds of indecencies.”
“America is quickly becoming Sin Nation. Or, as President Trump put it while discussing prediction markets in the Oval Office last month: ‘The whole world, unfortunately, has become somewhat of a casino.’”
“Once-forbidden vices — weed, gambling and porn — are no longer confined to back alleys or the desert. They’re ubiquitous, digital and spreading at a pace that has outstripped the country’s social and regulatory guardrails.”
“Governments didn’t turn a blind eye to most of this behavior. They encouraged it. We’re scaling sin in real time.”
Trump Officials Pitch GOP Lawmakers on Ballroom
Steel Tariffs Are Raising the Price of Canned Foods
“The simple tin can is proving to be one of the toughest tests for President Trump’s tariffs,” the New York Times reports.
“Just over a year ago, Mr. Trump imposed high tariffs on steel to try to stifle imports of the metal and bolster domestic production.”
“But imports of the kind of steel used to make cans surged in 2025, and American can makers say they will remain heavily dependent on foreign supplies — now made more expensive by the tariffs — for a long time.”
Trump Faces an Emboldened China
“When President Trump returns to China nearly a decade after his last visit, he will find a country that is more self-sufficient, militarily assertive and economically insulated from the tools the president has used to stymie it and its ambitions,” the Wall Street Journal reports.
“China has caught up to or surpassed the U.S. in technologies such as batteries, robotics and advanced manufacturing. Its naval fleet is now the world’s biggest, while its nuclear arsenal keeps growing. It knows it has the capacity to respond to the many threats that Trump issues, with restrictions on rare-earth minerals or with other moves.”
“All of this has altered the balance of power between the U.S. and China, making it more likely that Beijing digs in on core issues of contention, say analysts and diplomats.”
Washington Post: Confident in China’s power, Xi is ready to host an unpredictable Trump.
Quote of the Day
“We have a man who is doing a great job. I knew it! Because he kept me out of jail for years. Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche. He kept me out of jail.”
— President Trump, speaking at the White House.
Inflation Soared to 3.8% in April
Wall Street Journal: “Consumer prices rose 3.8% in April from a year earlier, a clear impact of higher gas prices since the start of the war with Iran.”
“The figures, reported Tuesday by the Labor Department, surpassed the previous month’s reported increase of 3.3%. Economists polled by The Wall Street Journal had expected inflation of 3.7%.”
Washington Post: Iran war pushed inflation to highest rate in nearly three years.
Economic Fundamentals Point to Big Blue Wave
Seth Masket: “I did a ‘fundamentals’ forecast model of midterm elections that relies upon economic growth (real disposable personal income, to be specific), presidential approval, and the number of seats the president’s party currently holds, drawing on data going back in 1950.”
“That is, it ignores stuff like current House polling, fundraising, redistricting, polarization, war, etc. (Fundamentals-based forecasts tend to do better than ones based on early polling, although that wasn’t true in 2022.) I won’t get into the weeds on that model here, but the relevant income growth measure came in pretty weak, growing just 0.4% over the past year. All that translates to the Democrats picking up 46 House seats.”
“This is a much larger gain for Democrats than most people expect and that polls predict. Historically, it’s not that unusual — it’s on par with the losses by the president’s party in the midterm elections of 1958, 1966, and 1974, and considerably less than Democrats lost under Bill Clinton in 1994 and Barack Obama in 2010. But, yes, if my forecast is right, quite a few people, including me, will be surprised.”
Big Majority Blame Trump for the Economy
A new CNN poll finds that 77% – including a majority of Republicans – say that President Trump’s policies have increased the cost of living in their own community.
Roughly two-thirds of Americans say that Trump’s policies have worsened economic conditions in the country.
And Trump’s approval rating stands at 30% on the economy, a career low.
Patel Demanded Purge of Agents Linked to Trump Probes
Fired former acting FBI chief Brian Driscoll told CNN that Kash Patel tied his job security as a career agent to helping purge FBI agents linked to criminal probes of Donald Trump.
Patel told Driscoll “the FBI tried to put the president in jail and he hasn’t forgotten it.”
ABC News: Kash Patel set to testify on Capitol Hill amid controversies.
Playbook: “His testimony comes as Patel’s favorability tanks, with one recent poll by the Democratic-leaning group Impact Research showing his net favorability at -11 overall, including -25 among independents in swing districts.”
Obamacare Enrollment Drops by 20%
“The numbers are bearing out what many lawmakers feared: Many Americans can’t afford health insurance through the federal marketplaces without boosted subsidies,” NOTUS reports.
“More than one in five people who enrolled in health insurance through HealthCare.gov during open enrollment and in the weeks immediately following were dropped from coverage for failing to pay their first month’s premium.”
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