Marc Novicoff: “The Democrat Mary Peltola has led in every public poll since she declared for the U.S. Senate election this year in Alaska, a state that Donald Trump won by double digits in 2024. A former U.S representative, Peltola is a culturally moderate mother of seven whose top issue is fish.”

“Unlike the candidates dominating national headlines, she’s neither a social-media sensation nor a charismatic progressive. Most people outside Alaska have never heard of her. That’s a problem from a fundraising perspective—but an asset from an electoral one. If Peltola is a little boring, that’s exactly why she’s the Democrat most likely to flip a red-state Senate seat this year.”

“Peltola does not resemble a stereotypical Democratic politician. Both her biography and her political positions suggest someone attuned to the importance of environmental preservation—and to the simultaneous economic value of resource extraction.”

A new Global Strategy Group poll in Iowa finds Josh Turek (D) with a narrow lead over Ashley Hinson (R) in the U.S. Senate race, 47% to 45%.

“Americans are voting this year for Democrats at far higher numbers in primaries and special elections compared with previous contests, evidence that voters are unusually motivated heading into November,” the Washington Post reports.

“Turnout is rising in Democratic primaries even when they aren’t hotly contested and the nominee has little chance of winning in the general election, according to the Post review of 990 races, over three cycles, in 25 states.”

“In over 90 percent of Democratic House primaries held this year, voters cast more ballots than during 2022, when Republicans flipped the House.”