Wall Street Journal: “A decision by Iran to expand the war by targeting U.S. forces or assets would all but ensure a violent U.S. response that could drag out the fighting and raise the risk of the collapse of the regime.”

Playbook: “The regime has been hammered by Israel and can hardly now afford an escalating conflict with the U.S. Equally, it will look ruinously weak if there is no response at all. And this is a regime that first and foremost must protect its own position.”

“A day after President Trump declared that Iran’s nuclear program had been ‘completely and totally obliterated’ by American bunker-busting bombs and a barrage of missiles, the actual state of the program seemed far more murky, with senior officials conceding they did not know the fate of Iran’s stockpile of near-bomb-grade uranium,” the New York Times reports.

“Civilians, diplomats and military officials on several continents were waiting anxiously on Monday to see the ramifications of President Trump’s decision to bomb a trio of Iranian nuclear sites over the weekend, a move that will almost certainly have far-reaching impacts on global security,” the New York Times reports.

“After the bombings on Sunday brought the United States into Israel’s war against Iran, fears grew among American allies and adversaries of a dangerously escalating conflict across the region. American military and intelligence officials detected potential signs that Iran-backed militias were preparing to attack American bases in Iraq, and possibly Syria.”

“Iranian officials appeared to be weighing their options for retaliation against the United States.”

“Iran vowed retaliation and kept up attacks on Israel following the US strikes on its nuclear facilities over the weekend, fueling fears of a wider war in the Middle East and rattling global markets,” Bloomberg reports.

Reuters: “Iran’s most effective threat to hurt the West would probably be to restrict global oil flows from the Gulf. Oil prices spiked on Monday at their highest since January. But they have not yet shot up to crisis levels, indicating that traders see a path out of the conflict that avoids serious disruption.”

Axios: Iran parliament reportedly backs closing Strait of Hormuz, which could spike oil prices.

Wall Street Journal: The 6 miles of water keeping global markets on edge.

“After the U.S. struck Iran’s most fortified nuclear sites, the regime’s clerical leaders are facing a perilous choice: hit back at the U.S. and risk a widening a war with two militarily superior foes, or return to nuclear talks where they would likely have to give up on nuclear enrichment and their ballistic-missile arsenal, two pillars of the country’s sovereignty,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

“Iran’s missile arsenal and military infrastructure have been degraded by Israel’s military strikes this month, with Israel claiming to have destroyed half of the country’s missile launchers. But the exact extent remains unclear, and Iran possesses other means to strike back such as cyberattacks and possibly terrorist proxies, or disrupting oil shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. Uncertainty over how Iran might respond had stock and oil markets on edge, with U.S. futures moving slightly lower.”

“Joe Biden went to Europe and advocated for a nuclear power’s regime change, and then 10 minutes later his own White House had to contradict him. Seems like a big deal.”

— Sen. J.D. Vance, on X, on March 26, 2022.