A new JPMorgan Chase analysis finds that a critical group of U.S. employers would face a direct cost of $82.3 billion from President Trump’s current tariff plans, a sum that could be potentially managed through price hikes, layoffs, hiring freezes or lower profit margins, the AP reports.
This Job Market Is Weaker Than It Looks
Wall Street Journal: “The good news has been that layoff activity has remained relatively low, with employers hanging on to workers despite worries about the economy. And wage growth remains decent. But economic uncertainty has slowed the pace of hiring.”
“People who have jobs are keeping them, but those who want jobs are having a tough time finding work. That includes recent high-school and college graduates, people who are back on the job hunt after an absence, and those who have been fired.”
“That has created a stagnant market, where there is little movement even when new jobs are added. It is an environment where a bit more hiring could rekindle job growth, while a slight pickup in layoffs could make the labor market more stuck.”
House GOP Leaders Launch Last Ditch Whip Job
“With just hours until they want to start voting, House Republican leaders and White House officials have launched an all-hands-on-deck push Wednesday to get the GOP megabill through the House and to President Donald Trump’s desk,” Politico reports.
“Multiple groups of holdouts are expected to visit the White House later Wednesday to meet with Trump, who has demanded the bill get done by July 4.”
Trump Announces Trade Deal with Vietnam
“President Trump on Wednesday announced a trade deal has been struck with Vietnam, days before the pause on reciprocal tariffs is set to expire,” The Hill reports.
“He said that, as part of the deal, Vietnam will give the U.S. access to its markets with no tariff rate. The U.S., however, will impose a 40 percent tariffs on goods made in a country with a higher import tax rate, but shipped to the states through Vietnam.”
Iran Suspends Cooperation With U.N. Nuclear Watchdog
New York Times: “The decision means that international inspectors will not be able to oversee sites, as experts warn that Tehran could revive plans to build a bomb.”
Wisconsin High Court Invalidates 1849 Abortion Law
“Women in Wisconsin will continue to have access to abortion services under a new ruling from the state’s highest court that invalidates a 176-year-old state law that had banned abortions in nearly every situation,” the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
“The decision ends three years of tumult over the issue following the 2022 ruling by the U.S. Supreme Court that overturned Roe v. Wade, which had provided women nationwide with a constitutional right to abortions.”
Tesla’s Sales Plummet
“Tesla’s global vehicle sales fell 13.5% in the second quarter from a year ago, continuing a steep slide in automotive sales as the company tries to pivot to autonomous vehicles,” the Wall Street Journal reports.
“The electric vehicle maker has struggled to reverse months of declining sales, which analysts have in part attributed to consumer backlash against the brand and its Chief Executive Elon Musk, whose role in cutting government spending was polarizing.”
New York Times: “Elon Musk, Tesla’s chief executive, has been seemingly indifferent to slumping vehicle sales, saying that the company’s future lies with technology that will allow Teslas to operate autonomously and function as driverless taxis.”
Private Sector Hiring Drops
“Private sector hiring unexpectedly contracted in June, payrolls processing firm ADP said Wednesday, in a possible sign that the economy may not be as sturdy as investors believe as they bid the S&P 500 back up to record territory to end the month,” CNBC reports.
Trump’s Best Day Yet?
“President Trump began Tuesday by stoking his on-again feud with Elon Musk and joking about alligators chasing immigrant detainees,” Axios reports.
“He later basked in the Senate’s passage of his signature tax and spending bill — and enthusiastically lobbed threats toward an array of perceived enemies, from immigrants to the media to Zohran Mamdani, New York City’s Democratic nominee for mayor.”
“Trump and his team seemed to view it as his best day as president — a day when his brash, norm-crushing style was paying off in a series of ‘wins’ in D.C. and Florida.”
Immigration Crackdown Ripples Through the Economy
“President Trump’s immigration crackdown is hitting key pockets of the economy, disrupting workplaces and communities around the country,” Axios reports.
“The sharp fall in immigration this year threatens to slow down economic growth, particularly in the sectors and cities that relied on newcomers to the U.S. in recent years.”
Opposition to GOP Megabill Grows in the House
As members of the House GOP whip team take the temperature of members on the Senate-passed megabill, they’re “racking up no’s from lawmakers who they didn’t expect would be opposed to the bill,” Punchbowl News reports.
GOP Hardliners Warn of a Delay to Tax Vote
“The leader of a hardline conservative caucus in the House on Wednesday cast doubt on the prospect President Donald Trump’s sprawling tax and spending legislation will be completed by July 4,” Bloomberg reports.
Said House Freedom Caucus Chairman Andy Harris (R-MD): “We could take another week to get this thing right. We’re willing to stay until we resolve this.”
He added: “I don’t think it’s going to be ready by July 4.”
Colorado Capitol Has New Trump Portrait
“A new presidential portrait sits in the Colorado Capitol, after one that had hung in the building for six years drew the ire of Donald Trump, who claimed that it ‘purposefully distorted’ his image,” the Washington Post reports.
“The original portrait was swiftly removed, and this week a noticeably sterner portrait appeared in its place — and the president appears much happier with the result.”
“The White House donated the portrait about a month ago, and it was put up this week… The image is much closer to Trump’s latest presidential portrait, which in turn bears a resemblance to his famous mug shot.”
House Republicans Subpoena Brown and Penn
“The House Judiciary Committee issued subpoenas Tuesday to Brown University and the University of Pennsylvania, demanding additional documents from the schools as part of an ongoing probe into alleged antitrust violations in Ivy League tuition and financial aid policies,” CNBC reports.
“The two subpoenas mirrored one that was issued by the committee last week to Harvard University.”
Trump Faces the Biggest Test Yet of His Second-Term
“President Trump has gotten almost everything he has wanted from the Republican-controlled Congress since he took office in January,” the New York Times reports.
“GOP lawmakers approved his nominees, sometimes despite their doubts. They ceded their power over how federal dollars are distributed, impinging on constitutional authority. And they have cheered his overhaul of the federal bureaucracy, even as he has bypassed the legislative body’s oversight of federal agencies.”
“But now, Mr. Trump is pressuring Republicans to fall in line behind his sprawling domestic policy bill, even though it has elements that could put their party’s hold on Congress in greater peril in next year’s midterm elections. Fiscal hawks are appalled by estimates that the bill would add at least $3.3 trillion to the country’s ballooning debt, while moderate Republicans are concerned about the steep cuts to the safety net.”
Trump’s Business Empire Isn’t What He Claims
New York Times: “The version of Mr. Trump’s business that he projects — a real estate development company that executes large, complex tasks — hasn’t existed for a nearly a decade, since the Trumps’ last two major construction projects failed to make money.”
“Instead, Mr. Trump’s wealth is now built on monetizing the family name in new ways and, intentionally or not, the office of the presidency. It is an enterprise in pursuit of multimillion-dollar checks — from actual real estate developers, from cryptocurrency and social media enterprises run by others. It is also a business that hawks Trump-branded trinkets like watches and gold-toned mobile phones to the president’s passionate supporters.”
“Many of the deals open multiple channels for anyone to funnel cash to a sitting president, often in ways that are untraceable under current disclosure requirements. And because some of what is being sold is use of the president’s name, there are no clear metrics to gauge whether he has received market rate, a premium because of his office or, in effect, a hopeful bribe.”
House Republicans Threaten to Sink Trump’s Megabill
Wall Street Journal: “At the moment, the number of House Republicans vowing to oppose the Senate version is enough to block the bill’s passage, unless there is again a last-minute scramble to negotiate with holdouts along with a successful pressure campaign by the president. Only three House Republicans need to oppose the bill to sink it.”
When an Oligarch Confronts an Autocrat
Paul Krugman: “Does taking some satisfaction in Musk’s demise make me a bad person? Maybe, but I’m only human. Should I go easy on Musk because he came out against the terrible bill that just passed? No.”
“For one thing, Musk’s opposition predictably made no difference. Musk and other oligarchs will soon learn just how little political power their wealth gives them in the political environment they helped create…”
“Beyond that, Musk was against the bill for all the wrong reasons.”
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