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Playbook: “It’s the second day of the ceasefire. Israel is still bombing Lebanon, killing nearly 200 people in downtown Beirut yesterday… Hezbollah is firing rockets straight back. The Strait of Hormuz is still highly restricted, with Iran charging crypto fees for limited access. And there’s no clarity at all on Iran’s nuclear material.”
“The White House insists it’s all going well — though Trump made clear last night the U.S. military remains on standby should it be required.”
Bloomberg: “It’s a stretch, especially with Republicans holding a fundraising advantage, including a plan this week by the GOP-aligned Senate Leadership Fund to allocate $342 million to the key battlegrounds. But Democrats have history and momentum on their side. In 2006, another Republican president with fading popularity in the middle of his second term — George W. Bush — lost both the House and, more surprisingly, the Senate amid waning support for the war in Iraq.”
“Democrats’ chances likely hinge on four states where they are seen as most competitive, and several more that are potentially in play. They’ll then have to stave off well-funded Republican efforts to flip several Democratic-held seats, including two in states won by Trump, with the GOP touting Trump’s tax cuts and other issues that helped elect the president, like border security.”
Oil prices will remain 20% higher than before the Iran war, even if the Strait of Hormuz were to reopen at full capacity, Axios reports.
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New York Times: “Once upon a time, the unwritten rules of American politics imposed a strict decorum on the way politicians talked.”
“Lately, you may have noticed, the rules have changed. One particular four-letter word that would have shocked a 1960 audience is suddenly being tossed about with abandon.”
“President Trump has long been known for breaking norms with his crude language — and used a variant of the word in a startling Easter Sunday message to Iran just this week. But it turns out that Democratic politicians are now far more likely than Republicans to spice up their public statements with the particular swear word, according to a New York Times analysis of social media posts made by governors and members of Congress since 2020.”
President Trump posted late last night that “our great Military is Loading Up and Resting, looking forward, actually, to its next Conquest.”
He added: “AMERICA IS BACK!”
Wall Street Journal: “Iran told mediators it would limit the number of ships crossing the Strait of Hormuz to around a dozen a day and charge tolls under the cease-fire struck by President Trump, showing Tehran plans to tighten its grip on the world’s most important energy-shipping lane.”
“Ships that pass will have to coordinate with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the powerful paramilitary group that has been labeled a terrorist organization by the U.S. and the European Union”
Wall Street Journal: “The White House is considering a plan to punish some members of the NATO alliance that President Trump thinks were unhelpful to the U.S. and Israel during the Iran war, according to administration officials.”
“The proposal would involve moving U.S. troops out of North Atlantic Treaty Organization member countries deemed unhelpful to the Iran war effort and stationing them in countries that were more supportive. The proposal would fall far short of President Trump’s recent threats to fully withdraw the U.S. from the alliance, which by law he can’t do without Congress.”
Playbook: “It’s easy to become immune to Trump’s NATO-bashing because it’s been going on so long. But what’s happened over the past 14 months is very different. What’s happened since the start of the year is seismic.”
“It’s too early to call it definitively — the leaks will likely come in the hours ahead — but it’s pretty clear yesterday’s talks between Trump and NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte didn’t go well.”
Washington Post: Trump vents at NATO but avoids rupture after meeting with alliance’s leader.
Wall Street Journal: “When Iran agreed to a two-week cease-fire only hours before President Trump had vowed to unleash punishing new attacks, it was in many ways a moment of triumph for the battered regime.”
“Tehran emerged from 38 days of war against the U.S. and Israel having won not only its primary goal—its own survival—but also two potential strategic gains: control of the Strait of Hormuz and a newly established deterrence against large-scale attacks by its longtime adversaries.”
“Despite huge military losses, Iran’s stranglehold on the vital waterway for 20% of the world’s oil exports won’t be broken anytime soon.”
Washington Post: After Trump pauses war, Iranians fly flags of victory, not surrender.
Wall Street Journal: “President Trump’s declaration of ‘total victory’ in Iran left some close allies and several senior aides worried Wednesday that he is overstating what is a fragile cease-fire with Tehran, which remains capable of blocking ships in the Strait of Hormuz and attacking U.S. forces in the region.”
“The president has been advised on the risks that could cause the cease-fire to crater and warned that Iran still retains dangerous military capabilities, according to multiple officials.”
New York Times: “President Trump’s 8 p.m. deadline for Iran was fast approaching, and Pakistan was trying to orchestrate an off-ramp for both sides. So Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif took to social media.”
“Mr. Sharif, adopting Trumpian parlance, said in a post on X Tuesday afternoon that diplomacy was ‘progressing steadily, strongly and powerfully’ and that he was requesting that Mr. Trump extend the deadline for two weeks. He then tagged Mr. Trump and other top advisers.”
“But behind the scenes, the White House had already seen and signed off on the statement before Mr. Sharif posted it, according to a person briefed on the communication, a sign that the diplomatic channels were much more active than the message on social media suggested.”
“President Donald Trump vowed to keep US troops in the Persian Gulf ahead of talks with Iran that are planned to firm up a fragile truce, while Tehran warned there may be mines in a strategic waterway Washington wants reopened,” Bloomberg reports.
New York Times: “President Trump faces new diplomatic tests as he prepares for weekend talks with Tehran amid doubts about the durability of his day-old cease-fire with Iran and the prospects for building it into a broader peace settlement.”
Punchbowl News: “President Donald Trump will head to Arizona and Nevada next week to talk about the One Big Beautiful Bill Act and its tax cuts, the biggest policy win notched by the GOP-run Congress. And there will be a MAHA roundtable at the White House today. Trump is seemingly trying to turn the page from a brutal month of war in Iran and Republican infighting in Washington.”
“But it won’t be that easy.”
“Despite the ceasefire, oil tankers still aren’t moving through the Strait of Hormuz yet, and the question of Israel’s offensive against Hezbollah in Lebanon is being disputed by U.S., Israeli and Iranian officials. Trump warned late Wednesday night that U.S. forces ‘will remain in place in, and around, Iran, until such time as the REAL AGREEMENT reached is fully complied with.'”
“Plus, with lawmakers returning to Washington for the first time in two weeks on Monday, the Capitol will be dominated by votes and action related to the 40-day long conflict.”
Maine Gov. Janet Mills (D) is not dropping out of the Democratic U.S. Senate primary despite trailing in the polls and having no advertisements booked after Wednesday, the Portland Press Herald reports.
I had a great conversation with the great Julie Mason on her Sirius XM show this afternoon.
Bloomberg: “President Donald Trump’s declaration of a two-week ceasefire in the war against Iran has soothed global markets. But a series of conflicting statements — and actions — since the announcement suggests fundamental differences remain, making the truce even more fragile.”
“Trump unleashed a flurry of social media posts starting in the early hours of Wednesday regarding the Strait of Hormuz, Iran’s nuclear material, tariffs, sanctions and the negotiating parameters of a long-term peace deal. Several of his messages contained dubious or incomplete claims.”
Aaron Blake: “For Iran hawks on the right, Tuesday night was initially time to revel in how President Donald Trump had again proven his detractors wrong with his supposed Art of the Deal win in obtaining a ceasefire in the ongoing war.”
“But by Wednesday morning, that revelry gave way to some genuine concern about what Trump was willing to concede to extract himself from the conflict.”
New York Times: “The people logging into Truth Social each day tend to count themselves among the most ardent supporters of President Trump and his MAGA movement. In recent weeks, though, even some in the echo chamber have turned against his actions in Iran.”
“Thousands of users on the social media platform, which Mr. Trump created in 2022, have responded to the president’s drumbeat of posts with a mix of frustration, disbelief and outrage.”
Associated Press: “To end the war with the United States and Israel, Iran is demanding the right to collect tolls in the Strait of Hormuz as a precondition for reopening the waterway vital to world oil supplies.”
“Yet collecting tolls in the strait would violate a basic and enduring principle of international maritime trade: freedom of peaceful navigation…”
“Opening the strait would save the global economy from supply constraints that have pushed energy and fertilizer prices sharply higher since the war began on Feb. 28. But agreeing to Iranian toll-collecting would cement the Islamic Republic’s control over the strait through which 20% of the world’s oil is shipped — and enrich the military against whom the war was launched.”
Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.
Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.
Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.
Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.
Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.
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