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Trump Is Already Moving On

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Playbook: “Given the unpopularity of this war in America, the devastating impact on oil prices, the rapidly worsening global economic outlook and Trump’s looming May 14 summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping, it’s hard to imagine Trump reviving his bombing campaign. Oil prices have already plummeted below $100 a barrel following the ceasefire announcement. Stock markets are surging. He’s not going to want to go back.”

“So brace yourselves for the White House comms blitz. Your zone is about to be flooded with Trump world messages that America won the war, even before this two-week negotiation gets underway.”

Trump to AFP last night: “This is a total and complete victory. 100 percent. No question about it.”

Democrats Notch Landslide Win in Wisconsin

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“Democrats just had one of their best election nights since President Donald Trump returned to the White House. Again,” Politico reports.

“In Wisconsin’s Supreme Court election, the Democratic-backed candidate sailed to a nearly 20-point landslide victory Tuesday in a battleground Trump carried less than two years ago. Meanwhile, a Georgia Democrat slashed Trump’s margin of victory by two thirds in the state’s reddest district despite losing the election — the most significant overperformance the party has seen across all seven House special elections so far this cycle.”

MAGA Media’s Great Unraveling

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“Trump’s political strength has always depended less on party institutions than on a decentralized media ecosystem — podcasters, streamers and activists who translate his message to millions of loyal voters,” Axios reports.

“At the start of Trump’s second term, that coalition was unified, powerful and certain: They had just delivered him the White House, and believed he would deliver for them.”

“Now the movement’s most powerful voices are working to keep Trump in check if not bring him down outright, accusing him of betraying the ‘America First’ promises that built the movement.”

The White House Is Keeping Kristi Noem’s $70 Million Jet

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“President Trump has ousted Kristi Noem from the Department of Homeland Security, but his administration is hanging on to the controversial $70 million jet she leased during her tenure,“ the Wall Street Journal reports.

“The administration plans to use the plane, which is nicer than most other government jets, for travel by select cabinet secretaries, some of the officials said. First lady Melania Trump’s office would also have access to the jet.”

Republican Legislators Move to Curb Citizen Initiatives

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“Voters frustrated by one-party control in Republican states over the last decade have increasingly turned to citizen-sponsored initiatives to enact policies that their legislatures won’t. They expanded Medicaid, adopted paid sick leave, raised the minimum wage and safeguarded access to abortion,” the New York Times reports.

“Now, the legislators are striking back.”

“In North Dakota, Utah and South Dakota, legislatures are sponsoring measures on the November ballot that would raise the threshold for approving citizen amendments to 60 percent, not a simple majority.”

“In Missouri, the legislature placed a measure on the ballot that would set an even higher bar: Citizen-sponsored amendments to the state constitution would have to win in each of the state’s eight U.S. House districts.”

Oil Prices Fall After Ceasefire Announced

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“Oil plunged toward $90 a barrel after the US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire that’s expected to halt the American-Israeli military campaign in exchange for Tehran reopening the Strait of Hormuz,” Bloomberg reports.

CNBC: Oil prices plunge below $100 after Iran agrees to safe passage through Strait of Hormuz during ceasefire.

Five More House Races Move Towards Democrats

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Cook Political Report: “The political environment for House Republicans continues to look bleak. Even before President Donald Trump’s approval rating reached a nadir amid spiking gas prices and an unpopular war with Iran, special and off-year elections showed Democrats with a significant enthusiasm advantage and Republicans were trailing the national generic ballot by five to six points.”

“Our latest round of House race ratings changes includes five moves to the left and one move to the right, reflecting Republicans’ broader midterm struggles as well as specific developments in each race.”

Mediaite: House Republicans need to win 76% of Toss Ups to keep their majority.

Elissa Slotkin Would Consider Running for President

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Sen. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI) “said she would consider running for president in 2028 to help the Democratic Party chart a new path built around the next generation of leaders,” the Des Moines Register reports.

Said Slotkin: “I’m not so arrogant as to think it has to be me. Midterms is what I’m focused on right now, but if it comes to the point afterwards that I think there’s not anyone else who’s on the right path, I guess I wouldn’t say no forever.”

Iran Accepts Terms of Pakistan’s Proposal

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New York Times: “Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, said in a statement that Iran has agreed to Pakistan’s proposal for a cease-fire and that attacks against Iran are halted, Iran will also ‘cease their defensive operation.”

“For a period of two weeks, safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz will be possible via coordinating with Iran’s Armed Forces.'”

Iran Isn’t Budging as Trump’s Deadline Nears

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New York Times: “Three Iranian officials, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe sensitive diplomacy, as did other diplomats who discussed the matter, said Iran had stopped engaging even in indirect talks through mediators with the Trump administration.”

“While Iran left open the possibility that Pakistan could serve as a conduit if talks resumed, the response suggests that Mr. Trump’s dramatic threat, which one U.S. official said was intended to force Iranian concessions, may have backfired.”

About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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