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Inside Trump’s ‘Funny Numbers’ on Mass Deportations

October 13, 2025 at 8:03 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“The Trump administration is asking the public to trust its math on what it promised would be the largest mass deportation campaign in U.S. history,” Axios reports.

“The Department of Homeland Security has used a highly unorthodox approach to reach its stunning figure of 2 million undocumented immigrants ‘removed or self-deported’ since Inauguration Day.”

Key takeaway: “80% of that total (1.6 million) is on the ‘self-deported’ side, based on government survey data that experts warn should be viewed with skepticism.”

Wave of Retirements Puts Strain on Government

October 13, 2025 at 7:57 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“A historic wave of retirements and other departures has swept through the federal workforce in recent months, putting enormous strain on agencies as they cope with a new government shutdown and administration layoffs,” the Washington Post reports.

“This mass exodus — unprecedented in its scale — includes 154,000 federal employees who accepted buyout offers and were largely removed from the payroll as of the end of last month. Some of those are among nearly 105,000 employees who took regular retirement during the fiscal year that ended in September, an 18 percent surge from the previous year.”

Capitol Hill Is Stuck

October 13, 2025 at 7:52 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Punchbowl News: “Congress faces a critical moment. Especially the GOP-run House, which has pretty much given up any pretense of relevancy during this impasse. An institution that voluntarily shuts itself down for weeks in the midst of a huge clash over federal spending — something that impacts all Americans — isn’t playing a real role in governing.”

“Yes, the House passed a CR 23 days ago. But Senate Democrats, who instigated this crisis, have rejected it seven times now. So maybe it’s time to go back to the drawing board.”

“We’ve told you that the cumulative impacts of a shutdown grow the longer it lasts, and that’s the case here.”

Wall Street Journal: The government shutdown is finally starting to bite.


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U.S. and China About to Launch Next Front in Trade War

October 13, 2025 at 7:52 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“The U.S.-China trade war has lurched from fragile truce to bare-knuckle brawl. It is about to intensify further when the two countries hike fees on each others’ commercial ships Tuesday — a move that, on the U.S. side, could end up raising consumer costs and driving down imports from Asia,” Politico reports.

Weak Political Parties Allowed Trump to Flourish

October 13, 2025 at 7:44 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Julia Azari: “The key to understanding Trump’s expansion of presidential power – to use the Justice Department to investigate political opponents, to use the National Guard as a police force, to use ICE to detain and deport without due process – is the absence of countervailing political forces. This isn’t for lack of opposition. There’s plenty of that, and poll after poll shows that a lot of this is very unpopular. But the Republican Party has become a vehicle for Trumpism, and conservatives with reservations about what the administration is doing don’t have a lot of ways to work together…”

“Similarly, the Democratic Party has trouble figuring out how to craft national messages while managing a complicated national coalition…”

“In other words, we have a president doing lots of things that violate our traditions, our laws, and our Constitution. Some Americans like this and voted for this – but many oppose it, vocally so. But the capacity to actually do something about it is weakened because of a party system that’s both overly fragmented and very vulnerable to being dominated by individuals, especially presidents.”

Lindsey Graham Backs Indictments

October 13, 2025 at 7:05 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) told Meet the Press that the indictments of Letitia James and James Comey don’t faze him.

Said Graham: “This may bother you that people are being held accountable, but it doesn’t bother me one damn bit.”

Trump Says He Might Give Ukraine Tomahawk Missiles

October 13, 2025 at 7:02 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

President Trump warned Russia yesterday he may send Ukraine long-range Tomahawk missiles if Russian President Vladimir Putin doesn’t end the nearly four-yearslong conflict soon, the AP reports.

Said Trump: “I might say, ‘Look: if this war is not going to get settled, I’m going to send them Tomahawks.’ The Tomahawk is an incredible weapon, very offensive weapon. And honestly, Russia does not need that.”

Vance Warns of Deeper Cuts Ahead

October 13, 2025 at 6:56 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Vice President JD Vance on Sunday said there will be deeper cuts to the federal workforce the longer the government shutdown goes on, adding to the uncertainty facing hundreds of thousands who are already furloughed without pay amid the stubborn stalemate in Congress,” the AP reports.

Said Vance: “The longer this goes on, the deeper the cuts are going to be. To be clear, some of these cuts are going to be painful. This is not a situation that we relish. This is not something that we’re looking forward to, but the Democrats have dealt us a pretty difficult set of cards.”

Republicans Embrace Hardball Moves on Shutdown

October 13, 2025 at 6:52 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Republicans are ratcheting up pressure on Democrats on multiple fronts as the government shutdown enters a third workweek, hoping the hardball moves can finally force a reckoning as U.S. troops face a first-ever missed paycheck,” Politico reports.

“The GOP fear is that if the military pay deadline passes without action, there will be little to stop the shutdown from continuing for several more weeks at least. Some Republicans have privately warned the White House that taking unilateral action to pay servicemembers would deprive the party of a key lever to make Democrats feel overwhelming consequences for their refusal to act on a House-passed spending bill.”

Washington Post: Smithsonian visitors arrive to locked doors as federal shutdown continues.

Trump Walks Back Trade War with China

October 13, 2025 at 6:48 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Playbook: “After a weekend spent seemingly on the brink of a(nother) trade war with China, Trump walked the whole thing back again last night with a series of friendly messages to Chinese President Xi Jinping.”

“Having angrily threatened to slap China with an additional 100 percent tariff from Nov. 1 if Beijing did not drop its latest restrictions on rare earth exports, Trump suddenly pulled a U-turn and started playing nice again.”

Said Trump: “I think we’re gonna be fine with China. I have a great relationship with President Xi. He’s a very tough man, he’s a very smart man, he’s a great leader for their country, and I think we’ll get it set.”

Reuters: Every trade cloud has a TACO lining.

Trump to Address Israeli Parliament 

October 13, 2025 at 6:38 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“President Trump was set to address Israel’s Parliament on Monday morning, hours after Hamas released the last 20 living hostages from Gaza as part of a cease-fire deal that was brokered in part by the United States,” the New York Times reports.

“The 20 hostages returned to Israeli territory after Hamas freed them early Monday, a crucial step in the deal that took effect on Friday. In exchange, buses carrying Palestinian prisoners released by Israel arrived in the West Bank city of Ramallah, the first of nearly 2,000 prisoners expected to be freed in the coming hours.”

JPMorgan Announces $1.5 Trillion Investment Initiative

October 13, 2025 at 6:36 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“JPMorgan announced Monday that it’s planning a $1.5 trillion investment initiative aimed at bolstering sectors critical to the U.S. economy over the next decade, including up to $10 billion in direct equity and venture investments,” Axios reports.

Quote of the Day

October 12, 2025 at 6:06 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“I don’t think there’s anything that’s gonna get me in heaven. I think I’m not maybe heaven bound.”

— President Trump, speaking to reporters.

GOP Attempts to Kill Obamacare Keep Backfiring

October 12, 2025 at 2:32 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Republicans have tried more than 70 times over the past 15 years to weaken or kill Obamacare. But their campaign keeps backfiring,” the Washington Post reports.

“The sweeping tax and spending bill President Donald Trump signed this summer got his party closer to that goal than ever before. Though never marketed as a repeal, it unraveled much of the law and is expected to eventually push millions of people who gained insurance since the Affordable Care Act’s passage off the rolls.”

“Even that legislative achievement is proving politically fraught.”

Black Unemployment Is Surging Again

October 12, 2025 at 2:30 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Joblessness for Black workers is rising again, two years after reaching a record low. It’s a troubling indicator: Joblessness often spikes higher for historically marginalized groups during economic downturns, and takes longer to fall,” the New York Times reports.

“This time, the Trump administration’s assault on diversity programs and cuts to the federal work force could make it even more difficult for Black workers to recover when conditions improve.”

China Signals Defiance in Face of Trump’s Tariffs

October 12, 2025 at 2:25 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“The Chinese government has come out swinging in response to President Donald Trump’s threat Friday of 100 percent tariffs on China’s imports in response to Beijing’s new export curbs on rare earths,” Politico reports.

“In its first official reaction to that warning, Beijing on Sunday signaled that it will retaliate against any new levies that the Trump administration may impose on Chinese imports.”

“Beijing dismissed Trump’s concerns about the restrictions it announced last week — which will block exports that contain even trace amounts of Chinese rare earths essential to U.S. manufacturers — as a ‘classic case of ‘double standards.’ And said the export ban is a justified response to what it described as ‘discriminatory’ Trump administration trade curbs on items including high-end semiconductors.”

Trump Picks Longtime Aide for Personnel Office

October 12, 2025 at 2:22 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

President Trump announced on Sunday that Dan Scavino, his deputy chief of staff, will head the White House Presidential Personnel Office, The Hill reports.

Are Democrats About to Blow It in Maine?

October 12, 2025 at 12:43 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Dan Pfeiffer: “Maine is the most important Senate race in the country. Democrats have a narrow path to a majority, but they have no path if they cannot defeat Susan Collins in a state Kamala Harris won by seven points last year. Collins is the last Republican representing a truly blue state.”

“Losing Maine wouldn’t just hurt Democrats in the near term; it would make it much less likely that a new Democratic president would have a Senate majority in 2029. The Senate map is so biased toward Republicans that we simply cannot afford to lose a single winnable seat.”

“The high stakes really make me wonder what the hell Senate Democrats are doing in Maine.”

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Happy Warrior: A “happy warrior” is a politician or political activist who remains optimistic and cheerful even in the face of adversity or contentious political battles.

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About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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