A Slightly Depolarizing Election
After the 2024 elections, the Cook Political Report finds that district-level polarization slightly declined in 2024, and the House map is less skewed towards Republicans than it was in 2017.
Trump’s Tariffs Aren’t About Economics
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Auto Tariffs Take Effect
“Tariffs on imported vehicles took effect Thursday, a policy that President Trump said would spur investments and jobs in the United States but that analysts say will raise new car prices by thousands of dollars,” the New York Times reports.
“The 25 percent duty applies to all cars assembled outside the United States. Starting May 3, the tariff will also apply to imported auto parts, which will add to the cost of cars assembled domestically as well as auto repairs.”
Wall Street Journal: Cars were already unaffordable before tariffs.
A Stunned World Reckons With Economic Fallout
New York Times: “Laptop computers from Taiwan, wine from Italy, frozen shrimp from India, Nike sneakers from Vietnam and Irish butter.”
“These products are found in homes across the United States, a testament to America’s enduring role as a champion of free trade and its standing as the most lucrative market for goods from around the world.”
“They are now among the vast categories of goods subject to additional taxes after President Trump, on Wednesday, imposed universal tariffs on all U.S. trade partners as well as additional, heavier duties on 60 countries he deemed the ‘worst offenders’ of unfair trade practices.”
Washington Post: Size of Trump tariffs stuns U.S. allies.
Wall Street Journal: Tariffs ushered in an uncertain global order.
Trump’s Mindless Tariffs Will Cause Economic Havoc
The Economist: “If you failed to spot America being ‘looted, pillaged, raped and plundered by nations near and far’ or it being cruelly denied a ‘turn to prosper’, then congratulations: you have a firmer grip on reality than the president of the United States.”
“It’s hard to know which is more unsettling: that the leader of the free world could spout complete drivel about its most successful and admired economy. Or the fact that on April 2nd, spurred on by his delusions, Donald Trump announced the biggest break in America’s trade policy in over a century—and committed the most profound, harmful and unnecessary economic error in the modern era.”
CNN: Europe prepares countermeasures to Trump’s tariffs, calling them a “major blow to the world economy.”
A Third Global Recession in 20 Years Looms
Felix Salmon: “A truly enormous shock is needed to tip the entire global economy into recession. Since World War II, there have been two of these events: the financial crisis of 2008-09, and the coronavirus pandemic of 2020.”
“President Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs, if they stay in place and especially if they face retaliation from targeted nations, could be the third such economic earthquake in 17 years.”
Democrats Beg Elon Musk to Campaign Against Them
“House Democrats are making an unusual plea to billionaire Trump lieutenant Elon Musk: Come campaign for our Republican opponents next year,” Axios reports.
“Democrats see the Republican-aligned candidate’s wipeout in Tuesday’s Wisconsin Supreme Court election as a clear signal that Musk has become electoral poison for the GOP.”
Republicans Link Arms with Trump
“On one of the most politically stressful days of Donald Trump’s presidency, his party sent a more reassuring signal: Most Republicans are ready to back his new tariffs and the next step of his slow-moving Hill agenda,” Semafor reports.
“Even after a high-profile loss in a Wisconsin judicial race raised the specter of future midterm problems, most Republicans lined up Wednesday in defense of Trump’s Canada tariff plans and forthcoming reciprocal tariffs. Simultaneously, Trump helped Senate Majority Leader John Thune secure the votes needed to advance a bare-bones budget resolution that defers a lot of tough decisions about his agenda.”
Axios: Trump forces GOP to swallow protectionist tariffs.
Trump’s Appetite for Risk Knows No Bounds
David Sanger: “It was the latest example of his willingness to take a maximalist position, essentially daring his opponents to take him on. Before the tariffs announcement, he moved to blow up a global alliance system the United States spent 80 years building embassy by embassy, silencing Voice of America and mostly removing the government from the business of providing food and medical aid.”
“Mr. Trump is more than willing to test the boundaries of a 250-year-old democracy to retaliate against perceived enemies or eviscerate parts of the federal government, even if that means risking the public health system or ignoring due process for immigrants living in the country legally.”
“And faced with daily competition with China over artificial intelligence, space and biological sciences, he is happy to risk cutting off funding to America’s largest research universities.”
Axios: Trump takes the ultimate risk with the global economy.
Milbank Bends a Knee
“A fourth major law U.S. law firm, Milbank, struck a deal on Wednesday with Donald Trump amid the U.S. president’s campaign against perceived enemies within the legal industry, while another law firm fought back in court against an executive order targeting its business,” Reuters reports.
Will Malignant Stupidity Kill the World Economy?
Paul Krugman: “The tariffs Trump announced were higher than almost anyone expected. This is a much bigger shock to the economy than the infamous Smoot-Hawley tariff of 1930, especially when you bear in mind that international trade is about three times as important now as it was then.”
“The size of the tariffs, however, wasn’t the only shocking thing about the Rose Garden announcement. Arguably what we learned about how the Trump team arrived at those tariff rates — the sheer malignant stupidity of the whole thing — was even worse.”
“You might be tempted to dismiss complaints about the policy process as elitist snobbery. But credibility is a crucial part of policymaking. Businesses can’t plan if they have no idea what to expect next. Foreign governments won’t make policies that help America if they don’t expect us to respond rationally.”
The Fatal Flaw In Trump’s Trade War
“President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariff regime will completely transform America’s economic relationship with the rest of the world, all in the name of revitalizing domestic manufacturing,” Politico reports.
“And yet, many businesses won’t be rushing to shift their supply chains to U.S. shores.”
“For all the detail in Trump’s Wednesday announcement, his endgame is still shrouded in confusion. That’s lethal for long-term investment, making confident planning all but impossible.”
Wall Street Journal: Tariffs ushered in an uncertain new era.
Quote of the Day
“One of the messages that I’d like to get out tonight is everybody sit back, take a deep breath, don’t immediately retaliate, let’s see where this goes. Because if you retaliate, that’s how we get escalation.”
— Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, on CNN.
Higher Tariffs Than Smoot-Hawley
Playbook: “According to multiple analysts including Evercore ISI and JP Morgan, America’s weighted average tariff under the Trump regime will now be higher than under the infamous Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930, which plenty of historians — though not Trump himself — believe helped deepen the Great Depression. Capital Economics has U.S. tariffs at a ‘131-year high.’”
Trump Starts a Massive Trade War
Playbook: “The global economy is in flux this morning as Donald Trump’s surreal, chart-waving TV performance in the White House Rose Garden ushers in a new era of 19th century-style protectionism.”
“With Trump’s allies fanning out across the media to sell his tariffs to a skeptical public, global investors are braced for carnage when the U.S. markets open at 9:30 a.m. Economists are issuing dire warnings about the impact on prices, trade and growth if the tariffs remain in place.”
“And America’s allies and foes around the world are digesting what just happened — and carefully weighing their response.”
Eric Adams to Run as an Independent
“Mayor Eric Adams is opting out of New York City’s Democratic primary and running for reelection as an independent — embarking on narrow path as he further isolates himself from the city’s dominant political party,” Politico reports.
These Aren’t Reciprocal Tariffs
Playbook: “One of the aspects of Trump’s announcement enraging U.S. trade partners is the simplistic method used to calculate each tariff. This internet sleuth figured out the U.S. tariff rates are based entirely upon America’s trade deficits with individual countries — meaning these are not really ‘reciprocal’ tariffs at all.”
“The approach has taken a fair amount of flack from online economists, though the White House is naturally pushing back.”
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