Wall Street Journal: “Tehran’s ability to control this international waterway, through which one-fifth of the worldwide oil supply used to pass, has become Iran’s biggest leverage against the U.S., its Gulf neighbors and the global economy.”
“Whether the war ends in a success or defeat for Iran depends first and foremost on whether Tehran emerges from this conflict still holding the strait—and, with it, the keys to the worldwide energy markets.”
Semafor: “China has a better approval rating across the world than the US does, representing a shift since President Donald Trump took office.”
“According to new Gallup polling, a median of 36% of those polled across more than 130 countries approve of China’s leadership, while 31% approve of US leadership — the largest edge Beijing has had over Washington in almost two decades.”
“The Trump administration’s interest in reviving a long-closed investigation into California Democratic Rep. Eric Swalwell could backfire against it — by elevating his profile and boosting his on-the-bubble California gubernatorial campaign,” Semafor reports.
A new CNN poll finds about one-quarter of the public holds a negative view of both parties – so-called double haters.
Voters in that group prefer the Democrats in the upcoming midterms by 31 points.
Wall Street Journal: “In the last year, the U.S. economy has seemed to defy gravity, withstanding a chaotic trade war, shocks to the labor supply, and wild swings in the stock market. Now it is absorbing a global oil shock far better than most of the world.”
“But it isn’t fully insulated from the Iran war. Gas prices have leapt, hitting inflation-weary Americans and businesses that rely heavily on fuel. Analysts have warned of shortages of fertilizer, necessary for farming, and helium, a critical component for medical machinery and chip production. European pain matters for the U.S., too: Foreign customers for U.S. goods and services might lose buying power as their own economies struggle.”
New York Times: “The ultrawealthy donors who are backing the Democratic Party are increasingly impossible to identify. That’s kind of the point.”
“In the decade and a half since the Supreme Court opened the door to super PACs, which can take in unlimited contributions to support federal candidates, the amount of money coming in from undisclosed donors has grown at a stunning rate.”
“For the first decade after the court’s decision, Republicans dominated the so-called dark money game. But nowadays, it’s the Democrats who are running the table. That’s partly because some of their ultrarich donors fear retribution from President Trump and want to hide the fact that they are together spending hundreds of millions of dollars on liberal candidates and causes.”
New York Times: “Ms. Bondi hoped to save her job or, at the very least, buy a little more time — until the summer — to give herself a graceful exit.”
“She ended up with neither, and grew emotional Wednesday in conversations with friends and colleagues after she realized she was out. The next morning, Mr. Trump made it official, and fired her via social media post.”
“Ms. Bondi’s precipitous fall laid bare a cornerstone truth of Mr. Trump’s second term: Loyalty, flattery and obeisance are prerequisites for power, but they don’t provide durable protection from a president intent on carrying out his maximalist personal and political goals.”
Indiana Gov. Mike Braun is making good on his promise to support Trump’s efforts to “recruit, endorse, and finance primary challengers for Indiana’s senators who refuse to support fair maps,” Politico reports.
Braun plans to endorse challengers to sitting state senators who opposed redistricting.
“The White House Office of Management and Budget is preparing to send Congress a $1.5 trillion fiscal year 2027 defense budget request that relies on $350 billion in mandatory funding outside the traditional appropriations process, aiming for about $760 billion in total weapons procurement and modernization,” Inside Defense reports.
New York Times: “Across America, there has been a remarkable shift in the type of people who fund politics.”
“The biggest thing is that they often aren’t people at all.”
“The 10 largest individual donations so far in the midterm elections? They total almost $300 million — and none of them came from a human being. Some of the origins can be deduced, but other checks came from a series of little-known nonprofits whose original donors will most likely never be known.”
“A slim majority of Virginia voters favors a redistricting measure to give Democrats as many as four extra seats in Congress this November, with 52 percent of likely voters saying they support redrawing state political maps and 47 percent opposed,” according to a Washington Post-Schar School poll.
“But the poll offers warning signs that the outcome could go either way as early voting proceeds ahead of the April 21 referendum. Republicans and opponents of the measure are more enthusiastic about casting ballots than Democrats and supporters.”
“Regime change in Cuba has long been on President Donald Trump’s to-do list. But with Tehran dominating the agenda, Havana is getting a reprieve — for now,” Politico reports.
“Given the amount of resources and attention Iran is consuming, and the hassle a face off with Russia would cause, Trump and his aides decided it was worth letting Cuba’s regime have a longer lifeline for now.”
New York Times: “Russia is sending a second tanker of crude oil to Cuba, a government official said on Thursday, after one sent by the Kremlin reached Cuban territory earlier this week, ending a de facto U.S. oil blockade on the island.”
CBS News: Why is Trump talking about action on Cuba and what could that look like?
“Iran is responding to the threat of a ground operation on its soil by stepping up defenses around its biggest oil port, while threatening to attack a wider array of targets around the Gulf and launching a mass recruitment drive reminiscent of its 1980s war with Iraq,” the Wall Street Journal reports.
“Tehran is also mobilizing its population in ways that seek to harness the spirit of the 1980s war with Iraq. They include drives to recruit millions of Iranians, including children—a fixture of the tributes to martyrs via street signs and posters that are still a part of Iran’s daily life.”
“President Donald Trump has expressed frustration and disappointment with Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer — and is pondering making additional changes to his Cabinet,” Politico reports.
Said an administration official: “He’s very angry and he’s going to be moving people.”
“Should Trump proceed with a larger set of Cabinet changes, it could represent a major attempted reset for an administration confronting an ominous political landscape.”
Punchbowl News: “House Republicans are in open revolt. GOP lawmakers held a nearly three-hour call Thursday, during which Speaker Mike Johnson pitched them on passing the Senate’s Department of Homeland Security minus ICE and CBP funding bill. That’s the same bill that Johnson called a “joke” a week ago.”
“Johnson is now telling House Republicans they must accept this bill because the Senate doesn’t have the votes for anything else. That’s proven to be a tough sell. Another problem for House Republicans — the SAVE America Act, which they’ve passed multiple times, is going to end up in reconciliation, leaving it at the mercy of Senate parliamentary rules.”
“House Republicans now may hold off voting on the DHS funding until the reconciliation process begins. We’ll see what the White House thinks about that. This DHS bill doesn’t have the votes right now — or anywhere close.”
Peter Hamby: “The very fact that Trump decided to deliver a rare address to the nation was, on its own, an admission of his diminished political stature. He is not playing offense anymore. Almost every available piece of data shows that Americans, including core elements of Trump’s 2024 coalition and independents who turned on him even before the war, no longer believe the president will follow through on his promises. At the same time, his sudden appeal for patience and goodwill not only contradicts his entire political brand, it comes at a time when Americans can barely make it through a 26-minute Netflix show without looking at their phones. Patience? In this economy?? Good luck with that, sir.”
“No matter their ambitions or agendas, presidents are always tested by events outside their control. What continues to be so remarkable about Trump 2.0 is that most of his crises are emphatically of his own making. There’s no scapegoat for his crappy polling.”
The Atlantic: “Several people familiar with the White House’s plans told us that there are active discussions about others leaving the administration, including FBI Director Kash Patel, Army Secretary Daniel Driscoll, and Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer.”
“The people, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive personnel matters, said that the timing is uncertain and that President Trump has not yet made up his mind. But what was once an unofficial motto of the second Trump term—’no scalps’—no longer applies.”
Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.
Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.
Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.
Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.
Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.