“The U.S. Probation Office is recommending that former Rep. Chris Collins (R-NY) spend a year and a day in custody, followed by supervised release and a $200,000 fine, for the insider trading violations that he pleaded guilty to last October,” the Buffalo News reports.
“The proposed sentence is far more lenient than the maximum called for in Collins’ plea agreement – which was four years and nine months.”
“Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell appears to be moving swiftly to help bolster GOP chances of keeping an open Senate seat in Kansas in November, after Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said this week that he won’t be running,” Bloomberg reports.
“McConnell spoke in his Capitol Hill office Tuesday with Rep. Roger Marshall, a Kansas Republican who entered the Senate race in September.”
“The Kansas seat could be at risk if former Kansas Secretary of State and 2018 GOP gubernatorial nominee Kris Kobach prevails in the Republican Senate primary in August, and McConnell’s camp isn’t hiding that the majority leader wants another candidate.”
Inside Elections moves the race from Solid Republican to Lean Republican.
A new Pew Research poll found 64% of countries surveyed said they do not have confidence that President Trump will do the “right thing” in world affairs. This sentiment is particularly strong in western Europe, where under 25% of people in Spain, France and Germany say they have confidence in Trump.
The number is lowest in Mexico, where only 8% of people have confidence in Trump to do the “right thing” in world affairs.
Conversely, India and the Philippines have relatively high confidence in Trump, with 56% and 77% confidence, respectively.
“A trove of documents recently released by the daughter of a deceased GOP strategist includes some clues about what Republicans were thinking almost a decade ago when they redrew Pennsylvania’s congressional maps in a way that was later ruled unconstitutional,” the Philadelphia Inquirer reports.
“The documents, compiled at least partly amid the decennial redistricting that took place in 2011, include a warning that the party ‘got greedy’ in an attempt to create districts favorable to GOP candidates 10 years earlier.”
Rep. Gerry Connolly (D-VA), who just emerged from a briefing on Iran from top Trump administrations officials, called it “sophomoric and utterly unconvincing” adding that he remained “utterly unpersuaded” that the strike on Iranian Gen. Qasem Soleimani was justified, CNN reports.
Coming in June: Our Time Is Now: Power, Purpose, and the Fight for a Fair America by Stacey Abrams.
Fun fact: Abrams, who lost her bid for Georgia governor in 2018, has also written eight romantic suspense novels under the pen name Salena Montgomery.
Ask during a podcast interview whether he was glad he left the administration when he did in August 2019, former National Intelligence Director Dan Coats said: “Well, yes, although I didn’t know the inspector general’s report was coming, but this was a date that the president had announced earlier would be my last day.”
Garrett Graff: “For all the Sturm und Drang about the toxic culture of Twitter, it seems possible that the leaders of both Iran and the United States turned to the social media site Tuesday to help ensure that a tense night in the Middle East didn’t escalate into all-out war.”
“The tweets proved a remarkable modern-day answer to the long-running challenge world leaders have faced in struggling to communicate between nations during unfolding crises—communications necessary both to understand adversaries’ intentions and to telegraph their own.”
Richard North Patterson: “Polling suggests that the progressives, widely assumed to be ascendant, still represent a minority of the primary electorate. Moreover, as a matter of demographics Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders appeal to somewhat differing constituencies. Warren’s following includes economically and educationally upscale Democrats—potentially more susceptible to poaching by their sociological peer, Pete Buttigieg. Sanders appeals more to young people and the less educated, but perhaps more committed, blue-collar voters. To challenge Biden, one of the two progressives must first consolidate these groups, thereby eviscerating the other…”
“Sharpening fights over issues such as healthcare and reliance on big donors could further polarize the early primary electorate. Healthcare may dent Warren and Sanders, while controversy over funding sources may damage Biden and Buttigieg. But other strategic calculations transcend ideological differences, potentially wounding all but Biden in unpredictable ways.”
Nikkea Asian Review: “With a ‘phase one’ trade deal due to be signed on Jan. 15, the Trump administration has signaled a tentative and limited rapprochement in its trade war with China, which saw high tariffs placed on Chinese imports and bans on the export of technology products. However, despite those punitive measures and the aggressive messaging coming out of the White House, many of the states and counties that came out for Trump in 2016 have spent the past few years gorging on Chinese money.”
“Their reliance on investment from China only serves to underline how deeply intertwined the world’s two largest economies are, and how the president’s desire to unwind decades of trade imbalances could put him at odds with his own base as he seeks reelection this November.”
“Iran appears to be standing down.”
— President Trump, quoted by the Washington Post, in remarks to the nation after last night’s Iranian missile strikes.
Public Policy Polling: “Trump is stuck at 46-47% in Arizona (and has a 46/52 approval rating) and is stuck at 48-49% in Iowa (and has a 48/48 approval rating). He appears to have very little room to grow among undecideds. These numbers suggest that the fate of the 2020 election really stands in the hands of the voters who don’t like Trump. Trump does not have enough people who like him to get reelected: the only way he does is if the voters who don’t like him refuse to get on the same page after the Democratic primary is over.”
“Right now we see a lot of people saying they will vote for Biden but not Bernie or will vote for Bernie but not Biden. If those people get on the same page once the nominee is chosen, Trump will lose. If they don’t, it will be close.”
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said Wednesday that House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has no leverage in determining the rules of the Senate trial of President Trump, as the Democratic leader in the House continues to hold on to the two articles of impeachment, CNN reports.
Said McConnell: “There will be no haggling with the House over Senate procedure. We will not cede our authority to try this impeachment. The House Democrats’ turn is over. The Senate has made its decision.”
For members: Pelosi Still Has the Upper Hand on Impeachment
“I don’t give him the benefit of the doubt because he’s lied so much about virtually everything.”
— Joe Biden, in an interview with NBC News, on giving President Trump the benefit of the doubt of justification for assassinating an Iranian general.
Gallup: “In 2019, on average, 47% of U.S. adults identified politically as Democrats or said they were independents who leaned toward the Democratic Party. Meanwhile, 42% identified as Republicans or were Republican-leaning independents.”
“Americans’ political leanings have been quite stable since 2016, the year Donald Trump was elected president. The Democratic figure has not changed in the past four years, and the Republican figure has been 41% or 42% each year since 2012.”
Wisconsin Republicans decided to only list President Trump’s name on the April 7 primary ballot, leaving out two other Republicans running against Trump: former Rep. Joe Walsh and former Gov. Bill Weld, WISN reports.
Said Walsh: “I’m pissed off. I’m on the ballot in California and Texas but not Wisconsin. Florida, but not Wisconsin. How much sense does that make? That’s a bunch of shit.”
Right Wisconsin: “Today, almost all of the voices in the Wisconsin GOP that ever dared to criticize the president are gone.”
“Seems like about 20 minutes ago, we were denouncing these people as the ‘deep state’ and pledging never to trust them again without verification. Now, for some reason, we do trust them — implicitly and completely.”
— Fox News host Tucker Carlson, quoted by the New York Times.
Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.
Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.
Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.
Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.
Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.