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What Will Marine Le Pen Do Now?

April 1, 2025 at 8:28 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Politico: “Marine Le Pen, the frontrunner to be next French president, has a massive decision to make: Having been banned from standing in 2027’s election, does she go quietly or does she burn the house down?”

“What she chooses will have a huge impact on the country’s politics over the next couple of years and beyond; and whatever path she follows, it will be fraught with risk and complications.”

Euro Intelligence: “Le Pen cannot appeal this ban, only the verdict itself. The ban is provisional in the sense that a final ruling has to confirm the verdict after the appeals process, which could conclude after the 2027 elections. The provisional ban thus has political consequences even if she were to be cleared in the final ruling.”

“Marine Le Pen has now a choice to make: whether to go along with the process in hope that either the constitutional court or her appeals process will clear her in time to run for presidency in 2027. Or she could turn this into a constitutional crisis.”

America Has Never Been Wealthier

April 1, 2025 at 8:23 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

New York Times: “U.S. household net worth reached a new peak at the end of 2024. The unemployment rate has levitated just above record lows for three years. The overall debt that households are carrying compared with the assets they own is also near a record low.”

“But even a land of plenty has its shortcomings, influencing both perceptions and realities of how Americans are doing. The U.S. economy remains deeply unequal, with vast gaps in wealth and financial security persisting even as inflation has ebbed and incomes have risen. And data designed to capture the overall population may be obscuring challenges experienced by a broad range of Americans, especially those in the bottom half of the wealth or income spectrum. The share of wealth held by families in the top 10 percent has reached 69 percent, while the share held by families in the bottom 50 percent is only 6 percent.”

Pam Bondi Warns Against Tesla ‘Terrorism’

April 1, 2025 at 8:19 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Attorney General Pam Bondi released a direct-to-camera video warning Americans: “If you take part in the wave of domestic terrorism against Tesla properties, we will find you, arrest you, and put you behind bars.”


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Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ Is Set to Whack the Economy

April 1, 2025 at 8:04 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

The Economist: “Whatever the details of Mr Trump’s grand strategy, America’s economic growth will slow. Although countries that rely on trade with America—notably Canada and Mexico—will suffer more, Uncle Sam is not immune to disrupted trade. Goldman Sachs at first thought the hit to America’s year-on-year growth rate from Mr Trump’s tariffs would peak at 0.3 percentage points. Yet with the president’s increasing aggression, the bank’s analysts now think it will peak at 0.8 percentage points, and could reach 1.3 percentage points if he continues to escalate.”

“Inflation will rise, too, especially in the short run. Deutsche Bank reckons that, if Mr Trump goes for maximal levies, he could add 1.2 percentage points to the inflation rate, pushing it above 3% in year-on-year terms. Surveys show that consumers think inflation may run as high as 5% in the next year. That is almost certainly over the top: tariffs are a one-off shock, lifting the price level but not producing continuously rising prices. Nevertheless, with the Federal Reserve still struggling to bring down inflation to its pre-pandemic norm, higher import costs will complicate matters, making policymakers wary of cutting interest rates despite slowing growth.”

“And then there are the distributional consequences. A bigger share of low-income workers’ paychecks goes on consumption, and more of their spending is on basic goods such as clothes and food that are vulnerable to tariffs.”

Trump Aides Draft Tariff Plans

April 1, 2025 at 7:31 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“White House aides have drafted a proposal to impose tariffs of around 20 percent on most imports to the United States, as President Donald Trump pushes for the most aggressive overhaul of the global economic system in decades,” the Washington Post reports.

“If implemented, the plan is likely to send shock waves through the stock market and global economy. Assuming that permanent tariffs took effect in the current quarter and triggered robust retaliation by U.S. trading partners, the economy would almost immediately tumble into a recession that would last for more than a year, sending the jobless rate above 7 percent, according to Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody’s, who described the results as a worst-case scenario.”

Le Pen Verdict Fuels Claims That Elites Are Colluding

April 1, 2025 at 7:30 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Wall Street Journal: “The decision will strengthen a growing narrative among members of the Trump administration, as well as their right-wing nationalist allies in Europe, that liberal elites around the world are undermining democracy by weaponizing the judiciary against political rivals they don’t want to take power—in much the same way President Trump has claimed he faced legal prosecution before winning his second term.”

Europe Turns a Blind Eye to Erdogan’s Crackdown 

April 1, 2025 at 7:26 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Turkey’s suppression of democratic opposition would have elicited strong protests from Europe in the past. But now, the worst rift in trans-Atlantic relations in generations and the growing threat from Russia are trumping those concerns,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

Federal Workers Walk Into Chaos

April 1, 2025 at 7:25 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

New York Times: “Federal workers have been returning to offices in stages since President Trump issued an order to do so right after being sworn in. He has described the requirement as a way to ensure that workers are actually doing their jobs while believing that it could have the added benefit of leading more government employees to quit.”

“For those who have gone back, the process has been marred by a lack of planning and coordination by the administration, leading to confusion, plummeting morale and more inefficiency.”

“They have described the logistical challenges, cramped conditions and shortages of basic supplies that come with such a blunt policy change for the nearly one million employees who had been working in a hybrid or entirely remote position when Mr. Trump returned to the Oval Office.”

Trump Says TikTok Deal to Come This Week

April 1, 2025 at 7:22 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“President Donald Trump said a deal with TikTok’s Chinese parent ByteDance to sell the short video app used by 170 million Americans would be struck before a deadline on Saturday,” Reuters reports.

Howard Lutnick May Be the Fall Guy If Tariffs Go Wrong

April 1, 2025 at 6:53 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“President Donald Trump is struggling to message a scattered economic agenda, but his Commerce secretary, Howard Lutnick, is taking the blame,” Politico reports.

“White House and administration officials, as well as Trump’s outside allies, are growing increasingly frustrated with Lutnick, privately complaining about the close proximity he has to the president and the counsel he is giving him on economic issues.”

“It’s an exasperation compounded by recent television appearances, they say, that suggest a lack of understanding of even the basics about how tariffs and the economy work. He has also at multiple points over the last week gotten out in front of the president on announcements and contradicted his messaging.”

Trump Says He Settled on ‘Liberation Day’ Tariff Plan

April 1, 2025 at 6:50 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“President Trump said that he had settled on a plan for his latest batch of tariffs expected this week but didn’t reveal what he had decided, after his economic team struggled to coalesce around a remade U.S. trade strategy,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

“The debate behind closed doors highlighted the conflicting priorities of the president. The biggest one: He wants to both raise revenue with tariffs and use them as leverage to get other nations to lower their own duties, or make other policy changes. But if tariffs are subject to negotiation, and could be lowered over time, that would raise doubts about how much revenue could ultimately be expected from their imposition.”

Wisconsin Republicans Have a Turnout Problem

April 1, 2025 at 6:47 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Split Ticket: “Although we will not be releasing a model for this race, the early vote data we have extensively analyzed and modeled suggests Democratic-aligned liberal judge Susan Crawford is a clear favorite to win this election.”

“While the GOP-aligned conservative Brad Schimel certainly could pull off an upset (and it would be foolish to rule him out this early), the early vote suggests that this would be a monumental feat for him, and he is staring down the barrel of an immense deficit that he is unlikely to overturn on election day.”

“The early vote data shows that even relative to 2024, Democrats are significantly more likely to show up than Republicans are — and in a state that Donald Trump won by less than a percentage point in 2024, this makes the GOP’s job much harder.”

Elon Musk Has Fueled the Backlash Against Trump

April 1, 2025 at 6:42 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Jonathan Martin: “There’s little that congressional Republicans and their counterparts in state capitals can do about Trump and his insistence on pushing inflation-spiking tariffs. He grips his party like no modern president, and they must accommodate every impulse.”

“However, Musk has turbocharged the backlash to Trump and accelerated the revival of demoralized Democrats and independents appalled by the billionaire’s cavalier attempt to slash the federal government. If they don’t push the White House to cut Musk loose, Republicans are tempting a replay of 2017 and 2018, when Democrats scored gains in Trump’s first term, but with twin targets for the left this time.”

Playbook: “The world’s richest man polls appallingly, and his comments about benefits like Social Security have given Dems an easy message to sell.”

Trump 2.0’s First Electoral Tests

April 1, 2025 at 6:36 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Playbook: “Millions of voters can head to the polls today to cast the first official verdict on Donald Trump’s second term as president. But this being April in an off-year, today’s elections will likely be decidedly low-turnout affairs — even as their outcomes will take on outsize importance in the national conversation.”

“Voters across the swing state of Wisconsin and in two deep-red Florida congressional districts will cast their votes in elections which should provide the first meaningful gauge of the public mood since Trump’s inauguration. Forget all the noise of the past 72 days — today, we’ll see some real democracy in action.”

New York Times: What to watch in Tuesday’s big elections in Wisconsin and Florida.

Republicans Openly Fret About Trump’s Tariffs

April 1, 2025 at 6:30 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Punchbowl News: “President Donald Trump is on the brink of levying a sweeping set of new tariffs against an unidentified number of countries. Trump’s actions are rattling financial markets, business leaders and foreign officials.”

“Now House and Senate Republicans are beginning to feel anxious about what Trump is up to.”

Said Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI): “It’s a high-risk move on his part. I don’t know what his strategy is, but you look at what the market’s reaction is — I have a similar kind of reaction. I’m concerned.”

‘Administrative Error’ Sends Father to Salvadoran Prison

March 31, 2025 at 11:08 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“The Trump administration acknowledged in a court filing Monday that it had grabbed a Maryland father with protected legal status and mistakenly deported him to El Salvador, but said that U.S. courts lack jurisdiction to order his return from the megaprison where he’s now locked up,” The Atlantic reports.

Mike Lindell Floats Possible Run for Governor

March 31, 2025 at 11:02 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

MAGA election conspiracy theorist and MyPillow founder Mike Lindell is teasing a bid for governor of Minnesota, Politico reports.

Said Lindell: “I live here in Minnesota. Everywhere I go, no one wants Tim Walz. They don’t.”

Some Republicans Seek Tariff Exemptions

March 31, 2025 at 10:59 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“A number of congressional Republicans are publicly voicing concern over the potential for a prolonged trade war and its effect on American farmers as President Donald Trump prepares to announce a new wave of tariffs,” NBC News reports.

“Trump is expected to impose duties as early as Wednesday on imports from all countries in a move that could hit the agriculture community particularly hard. Several GOP lawmakers on Capitol Hill are seeking last-minute carveouts to blunt the impact of those tariffs.”

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About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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