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We Haven’t Seen Much of Trump

September 4, 2019 at 9:29 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“President Trump’s daily Twitter feed in recent weeks has been a torrent of personal attacks, news commentary, weather reports, unfounded claims and congratulatory notes. But when it comes to his day job, the American people have seen little of him,” the Los Angeles Times reports.

“This week, aside from daily intelligence briefings and private lunches with Cabinet members, Trump has only one event on his public schedule — on Thursday he will award the Presidential Medal of Freedom to Lakers legend and NBA Hall of Famer Jerry West.”

“Last week, Trump also held just one public event — a Rose Garden ceremony to authorize creation of the U.S. Space Command.”

Disruption Is Beating Stability

September 4, 2019 at 9:10 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

First Read: “What we’ve learned the last three years since the 2016 election and original Brexit vote is that disruption tactics work, especially for political parties and movements that appear to be at a crossroads.”

“What we don’t know is how disruption movements end.”

“Do voters around the world crave for stability? Or do they prefer to fight disruption with more disruption?”

“That, in fact, is one of the essential debates in the 2020 Democratic presidential race, with Joe Biden campaigning on stability and Bernie Sanders/Elizabeth Warren calling for revolution/structural change.”

Biden’s Comeback Kid Scenario

September 4, 2019 at 9:00 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

This piece is only available to Political Wire members.

It’s very curious that Joe Biden’s campaign would try to lower expectations in Iowa and New Hampshire more than five months before the voting actually begins.

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Official Who Expanded Alaska Drilling Joins Oil Company

September 4, 2019 at 8:37 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Joe Balash — who oversaw oil and gas drilling on federal lands before resigning from Interior on Friday — is joining a foreign oil company that’s expanding operations on Alaska’s North Slope,” the Washington Post reports.

“Balash, who had served as the Interior Department’s assistant secretary for Land and Minerals Management for nearly two years, confirmed in a phone interview Tuesday night that he will begin working for the Papua New Guinea-based Oil Search, which is developing one of Alaska’s largest oil prospects in years.”

The Hush Money Mystery Democrats Should Solve

September 4, 2019 at 8:28 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Democrats on the House Judiciary Committee have a new investigative emphasis this fall — they plan to focus on hush money payments arranged on behalf of women who had sexual encounters with President Trump,” Vox reports.

“And one major unanswered question that they should push hard for answers on is: why, exactly, did the Justice Department’s investigation into this end earlier this year — when prosecutors had said that Trump directed these illegal payments?”

“There are several possibilities. Per NBC News, House Democrats suspect due to DOJ’s policy against indicting a sitting president. It’s also possible that prosecutors just thought their case wasn’t strong enough — or that there was interference from higher-ups.”

Why Is Biden Already Lowering Expectations?

September 4, 2019 at 7:45 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Jonathan Bernstein: “We must be getting closer to the primaries and caucuses, because Joe Biden’s team on Tuesday began the job of lowering expectations. They’re now making the case that the former vice president could still take the nomination even if he doesn’t win in either Iowa or New Hampshire.”

“As Steve Kornacki correctly says, no one has actually done this since the modern nomination system began in 1972. (And as Kornacki adds, Bill Clinton in 1992 doesn’t count because all the other candidates conceded Iowa to home-state Senator Tom Harkin.)”

“It’s not just that failing to win would hurt Biden; it’s that failing to win would mean someone else won, and that candidate might be well positioned to capitalize on an early victory.”

“Plus, spin only gets you so far. If Biden can’t win, then one of his big supposed advantages – his appeal to voters – will be less credible. Moreover, at this point Biden is thought by most to be the front-runner, and that could make even a strong second-place finish seem disappointing. That means the news about Biden could be quite negative until he manages to win somewhere, especially if party actors turn against him or rally to another candidate. At this point, Biden has the most party endorsements in the race. But his lead could disappear quickly if he loses twice early on.”

The 10 Counties That Will Decide the 2020 Election

September 4, 2019 at 7:34 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Reid Wilson: “Interviews with two dozen strategists, political scientists and observers show the 10 counties across the country that will determine the outcome of the 2020 presidential election.”

Boris Johnson Still In Power But Not In Control

September 4, 2019 at 7:19 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Politico: “Johnson’s preference is for an election on Oct. 14, hoping that his Conservative Party will gain seats in the House of Commons and give him more backing for his preferred approach to Brexit.”

“Calling an election would be a big risk, though. It would essentially amount to a second referendum on Brexit in all but name and serve as a first referendum on Johnson. The previous prime minister, Theresa May, called an early election in 2017, only to have it misfire, leaving her with a wafer-thin majority.”

“Parliament could also attempt to remove Johnson without turning to the voters — via a vote of no confidence. But because Johnson succeeded in getting the Queen to suspend Parliament for five weeks starting on Sept. 9, there’s likely no time for Johnson’s Parliamentary opponents to pull off that maneuver.”

Hong Kong’s Leader Pulls Extradition Bill

September 4, 2019 at 7:09 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Carrie Lam, Hong Kong’s chief executive, said on Wednesday that she was withdrawing a contentious extradition bill that set off months of protests in the city, moving to quell the worst political crisis since the former British colony returned to Chinese control 22 years ago,” the New York Times reports.

“The move eliminates the major objection among protesters, but it was unclear if it would be enough to bring an end to intensifying demonstrations, which are now driven by multiple grievances with the government.”

Quote of the Day

September 4, 2019 at 7:05 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“You know, I can laugh about things like the ‘Grim Reaper,’ but calling me Moscow Mitch is over the top.”

— Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY), quoted by The Hill, admitting that he’s annoyed by his new nickname.

Democrats Bet Big on Obamacare to Win In Virginia

September 4, 2019 at 6:45 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Virginia Democrats are betting health care will help them take control of the state legislature in November, following their rout of Republicans two years ago that nearly eliminated the GOP’s hold on the Virginia statehouse” Politico reports.

“Democrats are already pouring tens of thousands of dollars into ads targeting the health care records of GOP incumbents in newly competitive races, hoping to capitalize on recently redrawn legislative districts seen as more favorable to Democrats. And new polling data says health care ranks high for potential voters.”

Trump Economy Teeters Ahead of 2020

September 4, 2019 at 6:41 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“President Trump is staring down a series of trigger points that will determine whether he enters the 2020 campaign backed by his most valuable asset — a healthy U.S. economy — or empty-handed and further on the defensive,” Politico reports.

“The White House faces a time crunch on several major policy fronts this fall. The president will need to appease farmers and factory workers about his ongoing trade standoff with China, in which he shows no sign of backing down. His administration is trying to cajole the Democratic-controlled House to approve a renegotiated trade deal covering the U.S., Mexico and Canada. And the Trump team must find a way to calm Wall Street to prevent investors from denting one of his proudest achievements — a surge in the stock market since his election.”

Strategies and Structures of American Politics

September 4, 2019 at 5:51 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

The 15th edition of Presidential Elections: Strategies and Structures of American Politics is out.

A classic, must-read political science text.

Sale

Presidential Elections: Strategies and Structures of American Politics

Polsby professor of political sc, Nelson W. (Author)
English (Publication Language)
320 Pages - 08/05/2019 (Publication Date) - Rowman & Littlefield Publishers (Publisher)

Trump’s Best Path Is the One He Took In 2016

September 3, 2019 at 10:42 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

William Galston: “In the Blue Wall triad—Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin—Mr. Trump’s job approval has been consistently lower than in Florida, Georgia and Texas, where it stands at or above 50%, as it also does in Ohio. Three other states—North Carolina, Iowa and Arizona—occupy an intermediate zone in which Mr. Trump’s popularity is higher than in the Blue Wall but lower than in the South.”

“In other words, if the president can hold his Democratic challenger’s popular-vote advantage at or near the 2 percentage points of 2016, he may well prevail again in the Electoral College. At the other end of the spectrum, if the Democrat were to approach Barack Obama’s 7-point margin in 2008, victory over Mr. Trump would be assured. Even if there is a huge mobilization of Democrats in solidly blue states, a 4-point popular-vote advantage would probably include enough voters in swing states to create a blue Electoral College majority. It’s impossible to determine exactly where the tipping point lies between 2 and 4 percentage points.”

The Electoral Vote Map lets you test various paths to victory.

Cruz Says ‘Deep State’ Is Waiting Out Trump

September 3, 2019 at 10:23 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) suggested that the “Deep State is alive and well” within the Treasury and State Department and that their “number one objective” is to preserve the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran, Jewish Insider reports.

Said Cruz: “Their objective is just wait out Donald Trump. They’re convinced he’s leaving in January 2021, and so it’s a waiting game.”

Judge Orders White House to Reinstate Reporter’s Pass

September 3, 2019 at 8:25 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“A judge has blocked the White House’s decision to revoke the press pass of Playboy correspondent Brian Karem over a Rose Garden showdown in July with former White House aide Sebastian Gorka,” Politico reports.

Warren Adopts Inslee’s Climate Change Plan

September 3, 2019 at 7:36 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Sen. Elizabeth Warren released an ambitious new climate change plan on Tuesday, embracing goals laid out by Gov. Jay Inslee, and calling for $3 trillion in spending over a decade to combat human-driven global warming, the New York Times reports.

“Ms. Warren made her announcement on the eve of a CNN town-hall-style event on global warming… Sen. Kamala Harris is expected to put forth a detailed climate change plan on Wednesday morning, and three other Democratic presidential candidates — Sen. Cory Booker, Sen. Amy Klobuchar and Julián Castro — have also released climate change plans since Sunday.”

CNN: “Warren also challenged her rivals to meet Inslee’s standard.”

Climate Debate: Will a climate forum allow a productive climate change debate?

Trump Will Divert $3.6 Billion for Border Wall

September 3, 2019 at 7:34 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Defense Secretary Mark Esper agreed on Tuesday to free up $3.6 billion from the Pentagon budget for President Trump’s border wall by effectively defunding 127 military construction projects using emergency authorities,” the Washington Post reports.

“Esper determined that the use of the military construction funds was necessary to support American forces deployed to the southern border with Mexico under the national emergency that Trump declared in mid-February. The formal determination allows Trump, under an obscure statute in the federal code overseeing the military, to tap the funds appropriated for other purposes without sign-off from Congress.”

“The Pentagon declined to release the list of 127 military construction projects that would be affected by the decision.”