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Trump’s Best Path Is the One He Took In 2016

September 3, 2019 at 10:42 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

William Galston: “In the Blue Wall triad—Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin—Mr. Trump’s job approval has been consistently lower than in Florida, Georgia and Texas, where it stands at or above 50%, as it also does in Ohio. Three other states—North Carolina, Iowa and Arizona—occupy an intermediate zone in which Mr. Trump’s popularity is higher than in the Blue Wall but lower than in the South.”

“In other words, if the president can hold his Democratic challenger’s popular-vote advantage at or near the 2 percentage points of 2016, he may well prevail again in the Electoral College. At the other end of the spectrum, if the Democrat were to approach Barack Obama’s 7-point margin in 2008, victory over Mr. Trump would be assured. Even if there is a huge mobilization of Democrats in solidly blue states, a 4-point popular-vote advantage would probably include enough voters in swing states to create a blue Electoral College majority. It’s impossible to determine exactly where the tipping point lies between 2 and 4 percentage points.”

The Electoral Vote Map lets you test various paths to victory.

Cruz Says ‘Deep State’ Is Waiting Out Trump

September 3, 2019 at 10:23 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) suggested that the “Deep State is alive and well” within the Treasury and State Department and that their “number one objective” is to preserve the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran, Jewish Insider reports.

Said Cruz: “Their objective is just wait out Donald Trump. They’re convinced he’s leaving in January 2021, and so it’s a waiting game.”

Judge Orders White House to Reinstate Reporter’s Pass

September 3, 2019 at 8:25 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“A judge has blocked the White House’s decision to revoke the press pass of Playboy correspondent Brian Karem over a Rose Garden showdown in July with former White House aide Sebastian Gorka,” Politico reports.


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Warren Adopts Inslee’s Climate Change Plan

September 3, 2019 at 7:36 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Sen. Elizabeth Warren released an ambitious new climate change plan on Tuesday, embracing goals laid out by Gov. Jay Inslee, and calling for $3 trillion in spending over a decade to combat human-driven global warming, the New York Times reports.

“Ms. Warren made her announcement on the eve of a CNN town-hall-style event on global warming… Sen. Kamala Harris is expected to put forth a detailed climate change plan on Wednesday morning, and three other Democratic presidential candidates — Sen. Cory Booker, Sen. Amy Klobuchar and Julián Castro — have also released climate change plans since Sunday.”

CNN: “Warren also challenged her rivals to meet Inslee’s standard.”

Climate Debate: Will a climate forum allow a productive climate change debate?

Trump Will Divert $3.6 Billion for Border Wall

September 3, 2019 at 7:34 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Defense Secretary Mark Esper agreed on Tuesday to free up $3.6 billion from the Pentagon budget for President Trump’s border wall by effectively defunding 127 military construction projects using emergency authorities,” the Washington Post reports.

“Esper determined that the use of the military construction funds was necessary to support American forces deployed to the southern border with Mexico under the national emergency that Trump declared in mid-February. The formal determination allows Trump, under an obscure statute in the federal code overseeing the military, to tap the funds appropriated for other purposes without sign-off from Congress.”

“The Pentagon declined to release the list of 127 military construction projects that would be affected by the decision.”

British MPs Move to Allow Bill to Block No-Deal Brexit

September 3, 2019 at 5:13 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“British lawmakers on Tuesday rose up against Prime Minister Boris Johnson, moving to prevent him from taking the country out of the European Union without a formal agreement, and precipitating an epic showdown that could provoke a snap general election,” the New York Times reports.

“The lawmakers voted to take control of Parliament away from the government, giving themselves the authority to pass legislation that would stop the prime minister from his threat of a no-deal Brexit.”

The 328 to 301 vote was a massive blow to Johnson, who immediately called for new elections.

However, Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn won;t support new elections until the Brexit delay is passed.

Washington Post: “The procedural vote capped a humiliating day for Johnson, who was jeered, heckled and laughed at mercilessly as he defended his hard-line Brexit stand in Parliament.”

Judges Strike Down North Carolina State Legislature Maps

September 3, 2019 at 4:32 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

State judges ruled that North Carolina’s political maps for the state legislature are unconstitutional and must be redrawn before the 2020 elections, the Raleigh News & Observer reports.

Rick Hasen: “This is a huge development that will put the Republican-led North Carolina General Assembly in a tough position. Because this is decided as a matter of state constitutional law, it would be very hard to find a federal issue to take this to the United States Supreme Court for reversal.”

Mattis Won’t Rule Out Speaking About Trump Before 2020

September 3, 2019 at 3:45 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Former Secretary of Defense James Mattis defended his reluctance to openly criticize the Trump administration Tuesday but also did not rule out speaking candidly before the 2020 election, telling CNN that “there will come a time when it is right” for him to do so.

Warren Narrows Biden’s Lead Among Democrats

September 3, 2019 at 3:43 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new IBD/TIPP poll finds Joe Biden leading the Democratic presidential race with 28%, followed by Elizabeth Warren at 24%, Bernie Sanders at 12%, Kamala Harris at 6%, Pete Buttigieg at 5% and Cory Booker at 4%.

No other candidate polled more than 1%. Another 15% of respondents said they were undecided.

In general election match ups, Biden led President Trump by 54% to 42%, while Sanders had a narrow 49% to 45% edge over Trump and Warren and Harris had slimmer 49% to 46% leads.

Johnston Bows Out of Colorado Senate Race

September 3, 2019 at 2:49 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Colorado U.S. Senate candidate Mike Johnston (D) said he is suspending his campaign, the Denver Post reports.

“Johnston, a 44-year-old former state senator, led the crowded Democratic field this year in fundraising and was a top-tier candidate in the polls. But former Gov. John Hickenlooper’s (D) decision to run left him with a questionable path to victory in next year’s Democratic Senate primary.”

Said Johnston: “I think his entrance required this to be a very different kind of race and required a negative race that’s not one that matches my values and how I would want to lead.”

Conversion Therapy Crusader Admits He’s Gay

September 3, 2019 at 2:42 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

McKrae Game, who founded one of the nation’s biggest conversion therapy ministries, tells the Charleston Post & Courier that he’s gay.

“Now, the man once billed as a leading voice in the conversion therapy movement is trying to come to terms with the harm he inflicted while also learning to embrace a world and community he assailed for most of his adult life.”

Brexit Showdown Nears in British Parliament

September 3, 2019 at 2:37 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Parliament was given a green light Tuesday to mount an effort to stop Britain from leaving the European Union without an agreement, opening the way for one of the most critical showdowns in the country’s agonizing, three-year Brexit battle,” the New York Times reports.

“The decision clears the way for a two-step process in which lawmakers will first try to wrest control from the government and then force Prime Minister Boris Johnson to seek an extension to the Oct. 31 withdrawal deadline if he fails to reach an exit agreement with the European Union.”

“If that maneuver succeeds, however, Mr. Johnson has promised to call for a snap general election, the third in four years.”

For more, The Guardian and Financial Times have excellent live blogs.

A vote is expected around 5 p.m. ET

Biden Fundraises from Lobbyists Despite Pledge

September 3, 2019 at 12:59 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Joe Biden entered the Democratic primary promising “from day one” to reject campaign cash from lobbyists, the AP reports.

“Yet hours after his April campaign kickoff, the former vice president went to a fundraiser at the home of a lobbying executive. And in the months since, he’s done it again and again.”

“It’s difficult to quantify how much Biden has raised from the multibillion-dollar influence industry, but the roughly $200,000 he accepted from employees of major lobbying firms is far more than any of his rivals has received.”

Biden Campaign Says Iowa Not a Must-Win State

September 3, 2019 at 12:57 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Joe Biden’s campaign said Iowa is not a must-win state on the former vice president’s path to the Democratic presidential nomination and signaled that the campaign is already “ramping up” its Super Tuesday efforts, Politico reports.

Said the adviser: “Do I think we have to win Iowa? No… We think we’re going to win. We think it’s going to be a dogfight…. But we think there are several candidates in this field, there’s probably three or four, that are going to go awhile.”

U.S. May Be Committing War Crimes In Yemen

September 3, 2019 at 12:50 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Washington Post: “By arming and backing a Saudi-led coalition fighting in Yemen, the United States, Britain and France may be helping to commit potential war crimes, the United Nations said in a scathing report Tuesday that called for more accountability by all sides in Yemen’s five-year-old war.”

Trade Agreement with Mexico and Canada Remains Stalled

September 3, 2019 at 12:48 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Rep. Rosa DeLauro (D-CT), a key ally of Speaker Nancy Pelosi, told the Middletown Press that approval of the new trade treaty with Mexico and Canada is likely to “seep into next year.”

She added: “When we get to where we need to get to, we will move. We’re not there yet. And that’s critically important to understand.”

Democrats Gear Up for Busy Campaign Calendar

September 3, 2019 at 11:56 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Democratic presidential candidates are ramping up for a post-Labor Day push to win the party’s nomination for the White House, with Iowa caucuses now just five months away and the race still wide open,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

“The intensifying campaign calendar includes a debate next week winnowed to 10 hopefuls from 20, an important Sept. 30 fundraising deadline, a flurry of events in key states and the launch of new ad campaigns.”

Boris Johnson Loses Commons Majority

September 3, 2019 at 11:27 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Britain’s governing Conservative party lost its majority today as one of its MPs defected to join the anti-Brexit Liberal Democrats, Politico reports.

“Phillip Lee sat on the opposition benches on Tuesday as Prime Minister Boris Johnson stood to deliver a statement in the House of Commons. The move increases pressure on Johnson, whose majority was already looking shaky, but does not automatically trigger an election because that would require a separate vote.”

A video shows Lee crossing the floor in the House of Commons during Johnson’s speech.

For more, The Guardian and Financial Times have excellent live blogs.

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About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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