Jonathan Bernstein: “I noted over the weekend several reasons why Donald Trump himself, his presidency, and his administration overall are nowhere near prepared for the Iran/Israel situation.”
“But the more that it becomes an Iran/US situation, the more it’s important to add one more important point: Trump is absolutely, utterly unprepared to rally the nation around a war effort. And nothing we’ve seen in the last ten years even hints that he’s capable of it.”
“A longtime slump in the new housing sector is getting worse, according to new indicators,” Axios reports.
“The broader economy held up during a ‘rolling recession’ that hit the housing industry in recent years. That might not be the case this time if other sectors slow concurrently.”
Time: “The war on Iran, by contrast, is one Israel spent years planning for, and opened with the playbook of deception, decapitation, and precision strikes on missile sites….the question is how Israel will choose to define victory.”
“Regime change did not go so well in Iraq. And the stated goal of demolishing Iran’s nuclear facilities appears impossible without U.S. airstrikes.”
“That decision rests with Donald Trump. His choice may alter the region in unforeseen ways. But by reaching past the Palestinians to embrace Israel, as well as the sheiks of the Gulf, the U.S. President already has described the contours of its new, more transactional reality.”
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Washington Post: “Congressional Republicans are proposing to permanently allow wealthy families to pass on more of their assets tax-free, as the federal government all but abandons taxing large inheritances.”
“For decades, Iran’s leaders built up a network of allied militias in the Middle East that shared a hatred of Israel and America to gain regional influence and protect the regime. But as the theocracy is now fighting for its own survival, its allies are missing in action,” the Wall Street Journal reports.
“Lebanon’s Hezbollah, once seen as the most powerful in Iran’s so-called Axis of Resistance, hasn’t fired a single missile since Israel attacked Iran. Its military capabilities and leadership have been decimated by Israeli forces over the past year. Hamas, the Palestinian militant group, is a shadow of itself after 20 months of war with Israel that has seen its leaders killed and Gaza destroyed.”
“In Iraq, Iranian-backed Shiite militias haven’t targeted U.S. military bases, as they have in the past. And Yemen’s Houthi militia fired several missiles at Israel on Sunday, but have remained silent since.”
“Sen. Bernie Moreno (R-OH) is providing some supporting Senate fire in President Trump’s unrelenting assault on Fed Chair Jerome Powell,” Axios reports.
“Senate Republicans have largely defended Powell in the face of Trump’s attacks and guarded the Fed’s independence. But Moreno is sending a clear signal that tariffs and interest rates will be part of the conversation for whoever succeeds Powell at the Fed.”
“Travel and visa restrictions imposed by the Trump administration threaten patient care at hundreds of hospitals that depend on medical residents recruited from overseas,” the New York Times reports.
“Foreign medical residents often serve as the frontline caregivers at busy safety-net hospitals in low-income communities. Normally the residents begin work on July 1. Orientation programs for some of them already started this week.”
“Now some of those hospitals are racing to prevent staffing shortages.”
“The Dodgers on Thursday will announce their plans to assist the immigrant communities recently impacted in Los Angeles,” the Los Angeles Times reports.
“The U.S. assessment of Iran’s nuclear program has not changed since March, when the director of national intelligence told lawmakers that Tehran has large amounts of enriched uranium but has not made a decision to rush toward building an atomic bomb,“ NBC News reports.
“Comments by President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have painted a different picture, suggesting that Iran is racing toward creating a nuclear weapon.”
“The U.S. State Department said Wednesday it had ‘no announcement about assisting’private U.S. citizens to depart at this time,” after the U.S. Embassy in Jerusalem said it was working on dispatching evacuation flights and cruise ships for American citizens who wish to leave Israel amid the country’s ongoing conflict with Iran,” CBS News reports.
“Swiss exports to the US plunged for a second month as cross-border shippers wait for a trade deal to cushion tariffs proposed by President Donald Trump,” Bloomberg reports.
“The Justice Department plans to slash the number of inspectors who monitor federally licensed gun dealers by two-thirds, sharply limiting the government’s already crimped capacity to identify businesses that sell guns to criminals,“ the New York Times reports.
“The move, part of the Trump administration’s effort to defang and downsize the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives, comes as the department considers merging the A.T.F. and the Drug Enforcement Administration. It follows a rollback of Biden-era regulations aimed at stemming the spread of deadly homemade firearms, along with other gun control measures.”
“Israeli officials said they would intensify strikes on Tehran after a key hospital in southern Israel was hit in an Iranian missile attack,” the Washington Post reports.
Punchbowl News: “Republicans know they have a big, beautiful problem: The centerpiece of President Donald Trump’s agenda is polling like garbage.”
“Public surveys from this month paint a grim picture for the GOP’s most important legislative push of the 119th Congress.”
“A plurality of Americans oppose the GOP reconciliation bill, just 67% of Republicans support the package and 71% of independents have an unfavorable view of the effort. In other words, it’s not only Democrats that don’t like the bill. It’s independents and Republicans, too.”
“In case you aren’t great at math, this is bad.”
“And instead of spending all their time selling the bill publicly, Hill Republicans remain locked in an internal struggle over its particulars, with the stakes enormously high — both politically and policy wise.”
Bloomberg: “They spent years working toward a detente with their historical enemy. Now they’re contemplating a conflict that could jeopardize their oil infrastructure, hamper their ambitious economic plans and destabilize the region.”
“Foreign students will be required to unlock their social media profiles to allow US diplomats to review their online activity before receiving educational and exchange visas, the state department has announced. Those who fail to do so will be suspected of hiding that activity from US officials,” The Guardian reports.
Washington Post: State Department restarts student visa interviews with tougher social media rules.
Tucker Carlson accused Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) of being a “sleazy feline”:
CRUZ: It’s interesting you’re trying to derail my questions by calling me an anti-Semite, which you are.
CARLSON: Of course you are. And rather than be honorable enough to say it right to my face, you are, in a sleazy feline way, implying it. “Oh, just asking questions about the Jews.” I’m not asking questions about the Jews. I have– this has nothing to do with Jews or Judaism. It has to do with the foreign government.
CRUZ: “Isn’t Israel controlling our foreign policy?” That’s not about the Jews?
CARLSON: You said–
CRUZ: And by the way, you’re the one that just called me, I think, “a sleazy feline.” So, let’s be clear.
CNN: “He might do it. But he might not. And you’ve got no idea whether he will. Then again, neither does he.”
“Donald Trump’s riffing ahead of the most wrenching national security decision in either of his presidencies is nothing like the complex war-gaming and careful tilling of public opinion that most commanders in chief require before they send Americans off to fight.”
Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.
Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.
Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.
Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.
Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.
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