Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball finds the May special election in California’s 25th congressional district might provide Republicans with their best opportunity to claw back some of their lost California turf.

The seat once held by Rep. Katie Hill (D-CA) has moved from Leans Democratic to Toss-up.

“Joe Biden isn’t about to become Bernie Sanders, but he’s signaling that there’s potential for more common ground on issues such as health care, student debt, climate change and more in the weeks ahead,” Axios reports.

“As Biden courts Sanders’ endorsement, their teams will hold policy discussions in the next few weeks with the expectation that Biden will incorporate some elements of Sanders’ agenda.”

Rick Wilson: “Donald Trump and his allies bet the Ukrainian farm on turning Hunter Biden into a radioactive campaign issue, and even though it failed, that’s no reason they won’t bring it up again. And again. And again. Shamelessly and brutally and falsely.”

“The trick here isn’t to launch into an endless defense of Hunter. The trick is to go on the attack, and go hard. Go after Ivanka’s China copyright deals. Daddy’s little angel is a sociopathic chip off the Trumpian block, and his weird feelings towards her (‘So that’s how it is in that family’) will lead to his over-reaction.”

“Go after the failsons and sons-in-law, starting with Jared’s Persian Gulf bailout. Don’t spare Donald Trump Jr. These scuzzy griftbots are raking in money off the campaign hand over fist, and no one is holding them accountable. They’re using the hotels to launder lobbyist money back into Trump’s pockets. There’s enough oppo here for a hundred campaigns.”

“Biden just needs to be bold enough to use it, and strong enough to resist the initial fainting-couch faux outrage when he gives back as good as he got.”

John Harris: “The first factor is how effectively Sanders navigates the complexities of 2020 politics. In a grudging mood, Sanders could signal to his supporters that former vice president Joseph Biden isn’t that bad, compared to the alternative in Donald Trump. It would be quite a different thing to argue that a Biden presidency would be affirmatively good—a step, even if more tentative than Sanders would wish, toward advancing a transformative progressive agenda.”

“Sanders’ long-term reputation, however, will hinge even more on something he can’t dictate: What happens to the young activists who he energized with his cranky manner and democratic socialist agenda? George McGovern, another movement politician, was routed in his effort to become president in 1972 but people immersed in that campaign—from Gary Hart to Bill and Hillary Clinton—were dominant figures in American politics for the next 45 years.”

Washington Post: “As an opening salvo for what is certain to be a historically fierce general election campaign, the Trump tactics offered a window into the race ahead, pitting a conventional Democratic campaign against a Republican incumbent still striving to scramble political categories…”

“One is a competition for the ideological center of the country, run through the tony, tax-skeptical suburbs of key swing states that rejected the GOP in 2018. The second is a fight for the mostly working-class populism of the left, which has rejected the establishment politics of both national parties.”