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Trump Should Worry About His Disapproval Rating
Jonathan Bernstein: “Trump remains unpopular. The FiveThirtyEight poll tracker estimates he’s at 42.3% approval and 52.2% disapproval. The historical comparison is as bad as ever: Of the 11 polling-era presidents through 929 days in office (Gerald Ford didn’t serve this long), he’s second-worst, beating only Jimmy Carter – and his disapproval just dropped behind Carter’s once again, making him dead last on that score.”
“It’s theoretically possible that an incumbent with a 42% approval rating could be reelected. Perhaps the electorate will be disproportionately drawn from those who like Trump. Perhaps there’s a polling error in his favor. Maybe an unusually high number of people who think he’s doing a bad job will vote for him anyway. After all, lots of voters picked Trump in 2016 even though they didn’t like him. And maybe he gets lucky again with the Electoral College.”
“That’s a lot of maybes, though, and none of them are guaranteed to help Trump. In fact, some of them could easily leave him doing worse than his polling suggests.”
Republicans Head to Runoff for Mississippi Governor
Mississippi Lt. Gov. Tate Reeves (R) and former state Supreme Court Justice Bill Waller Jr. (R) are headed to a runoff for the Republican nomination for Mississippi governor, the Jackson Clarion Ledger reports.
“Reeves, long considered the heir apparent to the governorship, received nearly 49% of votes… Waller picked up more than 33%, and first-term lawmaker Robert Foster finished with almost 18%. Reeves had tried to ignore his primary opponents, but will now face off with Waller in an Aug. 27 runoff election.”
“In the Democratic race, Attorney General Jim Hood (D) easily advanced to the general election, garnering 69 percent of votes.”
Cost of Trump’s New Air Force One Has Skyrocketed
President Trump’s new Air Force One fleet will cost a total of $5.2 billion, up from the 2016 estimate of $3.2 billion, Air Force Magazine reports.
In early 2017, President Trump claimed he negotiated with Boeing to lower the price by about $1 billion.
South Korea Flustered Over Trump’s Claim
“South Koreans were left flustered on Wednesday after President Trump asserted that he had made their government pay $500 million more to help cover the cost of maintaining American troops in the country,” the New York Times reports.
“The claim contradicted the terms of a cost-sharing deal South Korea and the United States signed on Sunday after months of contentious negotiations. Under the one-year deal, this year South Korea will pay $925 million, an increase of $70 million from last year’s $855 million.”
How Trump Is Connected to Both Mass Shootings
Ross Douthat: “What links Donald Trump to the men who massacred innocents in El Paso and Dayton this past weekend? Note that I said both men: the one with the white-nationalist manifesto and the one with some kind of atheist-socialist politics; the one whose ranting about a ‘Hispanic invasion’ echoed Trump’s own rhetoric and the one who was anti-Trump and also apparently the lead singer in a ‘pornogrind’ band.”
“Bringing up their differing worldviews can be a way for Trump-supporting or anti-anti-Trump conservatives to diminish or dismiss the president’s connection to these shootings. That’s not what I’m doing. I think Trump is deeply connected to what happened last weekend, deeply connected to both massacres. Not because his immigration rhetoric drove the El Paso shooter to mass murder in some direct and simple way; life and radicalism and violence are all more complicated than that. But because Trump participates in the general cultural miasma that generates mass shooters, and having a participant as president makes the problem worse.”
El Paso Braces for Trump Visit
President Trump “was expected to be greeted with denunciations from some El Paso leaders when he visits Wednesday,” the El Paso Times reports.
“Rep. Veronica Escobar (D-TX), along with the Border Network for Human Rights and Women’s March El Paso, plan a gathering at 12:30 p.m. in Washington Park. That’s down the street from University Medical Center, where Trump is expected to meet with survivors of the shooting Saturday that left 22 people dead. Organizers say the event is meant to honor those killed, call for gun control and confront white supremacy.”
“Meanwhile, area medical workers began a petition asking University Medical Center, a hospital treating several of the wounded shooting victims, not to host Trump.”
Biden Will Link Trump to Shooting
Joe Biden is expected to link President Trump to the mass shooting in El Paso, Texas in a speech later today, saying the president has “fanned the flames of white supremacy,” The Hill reports.
From the speech: “Trump offers no moral leadership; no interest in unifying the nation, no evidence the presidency has awakened his conscience in the least. Instead we have a president with a toxic tongue who has publicly and unapologetically embraced a political strategy of hate, racism, and division.”
“So it’s up to us. We’re living through a rare moment in this nation’s history. Where our president isn’t up to the moment. Where our president lacks the moral authority to lead. Where our president has more in common with George Wallace than George Washington. We are almost 330 million Americans who have to do what our president can’t. Stand together. Stand against hate. Stand up for what — at our best — this nation believes.”
Trump Tells Beto O’Rourke to ‘Be Quiet’
President Trump tweeted late Tuesday night questioning the authenticity of Beto O’Rourke’s name and telling the former Texas congressman to “be quiet.”
Said Trump: “Beto (phony name to indicate Hispanic heritage) O’Rourke, who is embarrassed by my last visit to the Great State of Texas, where I trounced him, and is now even more embarrassed by polling at 1% in the Democrat Primary, should respect the victims & law enforcement – & be quiet!”
O’Rourke responds: “22 people in my hometown are dead after an act of terror inspired by your racism. El Paso will not be quiet and neither will I.”
Ads Pulled for New Thriller After Mass Shootings
Hollywood Reporter: “In the aftermath of mass shootings within days of one another that shocked and traumatized the nation, Universal is re-evaluating its strategy for the certain-to-be-controversial satire. The violent, R-rated film from producer Jason Blum’s Blumhouse follows a dozen MAGA types who wake up in a clearing and realize they are being stalked for sport by elite liberals.”
North Korea Says Missile Launches Were a Warning
Associated Press: “North Korea said Wednesday leader Kim Jong Un supervised a live-fire demonstration of newly developed, short-range ballistic missiles intended to send a warning to the United States and South Korea over their joint military exercises.”
NRA Discussed Buying Mansion for Its Chief Executive
“Documents indicate that the National Rifle Association planned to purchase a luxury mansion in the Dallas area last year for the use of chief executive Wayne LaPierre,” the Washington Post reports.
“The discussions about the roughly $6 million purchase, which was not completed, are now under scrutiny by New York investigators. The transaction was slated to be made through a corporate entity that received a wire of tens of thousands of dollars from the NRA in 2018.”
China Digs In to Outlast U.S. In Trade War
Wall Street Journal: “The volley-for-volley trade war between China and the U.S. is accelerating at a time when Chinese President Xi Jinping can ill afford to make concessions, raising the likelihood of a protracted struggle between the world’s two biggest economies.”
“Mr. Xi is ordering a celebratory run-up to the 70th anniversary of the People’s Republic in October, an event that Communist Party watchers and media say will showcase him as a strong leader of a powerful nation. With his government struggling to rejuvenate a sluggish economy and quell antigovernment protests in Hong Kong, Mr. Xi has little leeway to take steps that would undercut his strongman image.”
Los Angeles Times: “The potential loser in this international game of chicken is the U.S. economy. Both long term and short term, the White House is playing with fire — and it could end up burning Trump’s reelection bid.”
No One Matches Warren In Nevada
Politico: “Kamala Harris hired a dream team of operatives. Joe Biden has solid establishment support. Bernie Sanders heads a volunteer army. And Julián Castro is seen as a ‘sleeper.’ But of the two dozen Democrats running for president, none matches Elizabeth Warren when it comes to campaign operation sprawl, crowd size or buzz among activists and operatives in Nevada.”
Obstacles to Action on Gun Control
Playbook: “It doesn’t seem as if either the Senate or House is going to interrupt its six-week vacation to come back to pass gun control legislation. So here are a few challenges worth thinking about over this August.”
“Since no one is coming back immediately, keeping gun control in the front of the country’s consciousness could be difficult, Democrats tell us. The news moves incredibly quickly, so we could be three crises from now in early September, when Congress has to come back into session.”
“The president has endorsed various forms of gun-control legislation before backing away. Can anyone keep him focused until September, when Washington snaps back into action?”
‘Red Flag’ Bills Pick Up Momentum
New York Times: “Congressional Republicans, under intense pressure to respond to this weekend’s massacres, are coalescing around legislation to help law enforcement take guns from those who pose an imminent danger — a measure that, if signed into law, would be the most significant gun control legislation enacted in 20 years.”
“Such ‘red flag’ laws might not be as momentous — or controversial — as the now-expired assault weapons ban or the instant background check system, both of which were enacted in 1994 as part of President Bill Clinton’s sprawling crime bill.”
How to Beat Donald Trump
David Cay Johnston: “This is the time to take advantage of Trump’s inability to laugh at himself. For Democrats (and the dwindling numbers of principled Republicans) here’s some advice: don’t get mad, get funny.”
“Make fun of Trump and his hyper-inflated ego, but do it with flair the way Obama did. This may require hiring some great speechwriters who can come up with smart and funny lines in a hurry. (Hint: A former head writer for Saturday Night Live, a very smart guy by the name of Al Franken, is available.)”
“When Trump fires back with vile words, which he must, don’t take the bait. Just laugh it off. Just make the laughter at Trump’s expense.”
Trump Campaign Ad Features QAnon Signs
Daily Beast: “Two signs promoting the QAnon conspiracy theory are visible in a video from Donald Trump’s presidential campaign, marking the latest link between the president and followers of the fringe movement that the FBI recently described as a potential source of domestic terror.”
“The inclusion of the signs in the campaign video could be entirely accidental, as Trump rallies have become prominent gathering spots for believers in the QAnon conspiracy, making it harder to grab footage from the rallies that do not include such images. At a Trump rally last week, for example, a warm-up speaker recited a QAnon slogan during his speech. But the campaign video will, nevertheless, be likely interpreted by the Q community as a cryptic acknowledgement by Trump that their beliefs are real.”
