Out after the midterm elections: Primary Politics: Everything You Need to Know about How America Nominates Its Presidential Candidates by Elaine Kamarck.
“Updated to include the 2016 election, it will once again be the guide to understanding the modern nominating system that gave the American electorate a choice between Donald Trump and Hilary Clinton.”
Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) said that he will introduce legislation to end birthright citizenship after President Trump suggested he could do so through an executive order, The Hill reports.
Said Graham: “Finally, a president willing to take on this absurd policy of birthright citizenship. I’ve always supported comprehensive immigration reform – and at the same time – the elimination of birthright citizenship.”
“Dairy giant Land O’Lakes is set to announce that it will no longer make financial contributions to Rep. Steve King (R-IA) after a gun-fueled massacre at a Pittsburgh synagogue brought new attention to the Republican’s incendiary comments about race and association with white nationalism,” Bloomberg reports.
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Congressional leaders from both parties — Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY), House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-WI), Senate Minority Leader Charles Schumer (D-NY) and House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) — have all declined invitations to join President Trump on his visit to Pittsburgh after the synagogue massacre last weekend, the Washington Post reports.
“Pittsburgh’s mayor and some Jewish leaders have pleaded for Trump to stay away as critics have said that both Trump and his administration have fueled anti-Semitism through their rhetoric before and after Saturday’s massacre.”
CNN: “A spate of local and state officials also said they would not appear with Trump when he visits a hospital and pays respects to the 11 victims of Saturday’s massacre.”
A new UNF poll in Florida finds Sen. Bill Nelson (D-FL) leading Gov. Rick Scott (R-FL) in the U.S. Senate race, 47% to 46% among likely voters.
Key finding: Eighty-one percent of likely Democratic voters said they will vote for Nelson in the upcoming election, compared to the 86% of likely Republican voters who say they will back Scott.
A new Change Research poll in Iowa’s 4th congressional district finds Rep. Steve King (R-IA) with just a one point lead over challenger J.D. Scholten (D), 45% to 44%.
Sean Trende: “As we learned in 2016, and in a less dramatic fashion in 2014, a late break in the races can alter the landscape substantially. This year, there are a lot of undecided voters remaining. Look at the most recent House polling from the New York Times/Siena: In some races, the leading candidates are at 43 percent (IA-3), 45 percent (UT-4, PA-10, NJ-3), and 44 percent (NY-11). Moreover, the trailing candidate is typically only behind by a point or two.”
“This adds up to a situation where a slight break in the undecideds toward one party or the other could be the difference between a healthy Democratic majority and a slim Republican one. My standard answer to how these races will break is to assume that, on average, they will converge on the president’s job approval, but there still is enough “wiggle room” in that political tendency to move things either way.”
A new Hart Research poll finds that suburban women prefer the Democratic Party to handle gun violence by 26 percentage points.
Axios: “Suburban women are a crucial voting bloc on virtually every issue in the 2018 midterm elections, and this poll suggests gun control is yet another topic that could sway voters in certain races around the country.”
First Read sees three remaining pathways for Democrats to regain control of the Senate:
Rep. Mark Sanford (R-SC) will not endorse his Republican primary rival Katie Arrington (R) in her bid for his 1st District seat, the Charleston Post and Courier reports.
Said Sanford: “Part of leadership, at times, means knowing when it’s best to keep quiet. To me, this is probably one of those times.”
A new NBC News/Marist poll in Arizona finds Kyrsten Sinema (D) with a 6-point lead over Martha McSally (R) in the U.S. Senate race, 50% to 44%.
Last month, Sinema’s lead was just three points.
“President Trump has mocked Maxine Waters as a ‘low IQ person,’ and she has called for the president’s impeachment. But Republicans who work with the California Democrat on the House Financial Services Committee see something different: a rare deal-maker in a polarized Congress,” Politico reports.
“Waters, who would chair the committee if Democrats win the House, has shown a surprising willingness to work across the aisle and with industry groups, even helping to deliver White House-backed legislation to ease regulations and crack down on China.”
Said Rep. Frank Lucas (R-OK): “There are many, many things that Maxine and I are completely, diametrically the opposite on. But I have dealt with her enough on issues to understand she can see the whole picture. It is possible to negotiate with her and she’ll keep her word. That’s an important thing in Congress. Not everybody does that anymore.”
“Senior House Republicans have tentatively scheduled leadership elections for the week after the midterms, a quick turnaround that favors the current leadership structure,” Politico reports.
“House Republicans are eyeing Nov. 14 for leadership elections, according to three senior Republican sources familiar with the schedule. GOP lawmakers don’t yet know whether they’ll be in the majority or the minority, though the latter seems likely.”
If the GOP loses majority, Playbook notes: “Things get a lot more complicated here. There will be one fewer spot in the leadership structure. But in a close minority, you’d assume McCarthy and Scalise move up. If it’s a blowout, all bets are off and the entire leadership gets shaken up.”
During a U.S. Senate candidate forum Monday night, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) would not commit to serving a full six-year term if reelected, Seven Days reports.
Said Sanders: “Right now, my focus is on the year 2018, but if you’re asking me to make an absolute pledge as to whether I’ll be running for president or not, I’m not going to make that pledge. The simple truth is I have not made that decision. But I’m not going to sit here and tell you that I may not run. I may. But on the other hand, I may not.”
A new Monmouth poll in New York’s 19th congressional district finds Antonio Delgado (D) has increased his lead over first-term Rep. John Faso (R), 49% to 44%.
“The race stands at 51% for Delgado and 43% for Faso using a model that incorporates a turnout surge in Democratic precincts similar to the turnout dynamic seen in some special elections held over the past year. A model projecting lower overall turnout shows Delgado with a 48% to 46% lead over Faso.”
“The Republican Party base has been electrified by Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh’s confirmation hearings and a campaign blitz from President Donald Trump. But the burst of enthusiasm has not reversed the trajectory of the midterms for the House GOP, which remains on the verge of losing its majority next week,” Politico reports.
“Some Republicans deep in Trump country have regained ground. But the handful of bright spots have been outweighed by a tidal wave of Democratic spending and voter support in the closing weeks of the midterm election, according to public and private polling, interviews with strategists from both parties and a Politico analysis of TV spending figures. In recent days, House Republicans have rushed to fortify a surprise collection of GOP-held districts in a half-dozen states that were never expected to be competitive.”
President Trump told Axios that he plans to sign an executive order that would remove the right to citizenship for babies of non-citizens and unauthorized immigrants born on U.S. soil.
“This would be the most dramatic move yet in Trump’s hardline immigration campaign, this time targeting ‘anchor babies’ and ‘chain migration.’ And it will set off another stand-off with the courts, as Trump’s power to do this through executive action is debatable to say the least.”
Said Trump: “It’s in the process. It’ll happen… with an executive order.”
He added that he was surprised anyone else knew about his secret plan: “I didn’t think anybody knew that but me. I thought I was the only one.”
A new Quinnipiac poll in Connecticut finds Ned Lamont (D) just ahead of Bob Stefanowski (R) in the race for governor, 47% to 43% among likely voters, with independent candidate Oz Griebel at 7%.
Said pollster Douglas Schwartz: “This race is looking a lot like the last two elections for governor in Connecticut — a real nail-biter.”
Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.
Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.
Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.
Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.
Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.
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