New York Magazine: “Republican pros have, in recent weeks, quietly settled on new conventional wisdom: If Donald Trump is not impeached first, he is likely to face a primary challenge — of some sort — in 2020. The matter was regarded as an open question for most of 2018, but a new emergent consensus among the party’s consultants and strategists has taken root after Paul Manafort’s conviction and Michael Cohen’s implication of the president in federal court.”

“And New Hampshire — fertile ground historically for political insurgencies — is likely to be the place were we see the first clues about who the candidate will be, and what form exactly the challenge will take.”

Jonathan Swan: “My colleague Mike Allen, who’s covered a few midterm elections in his time, says it’s rare to see so much evidence of a trend accumulate so many months out, only for all the signals to be proven wrong… The signals look every bit as bad for Republicans as they did for House Democrats when they got wiped out in the 2010 Tea Party wave.”

Said one GOP operative: “Every metric leads you to one conclusion: The likelihood of significant Republican losses in the House and state/local level is increasing by the week.”

“The depth of losses could be much greater than anticipated and the Senate majority might be in greater peril than anticipated.”

Political strategist turned venture capitalist Bradley Tusk did not rule out the possibility that his former boss, former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg, might run for president in 2020. But Tusk, who managed Bloomberg’s third mayoral campaign, told Axios that the path for independents will be much more difficult in 2020 than it was in 2016.

Said Tusk: “We’re in a moment right now where people are really partisan… I just think people are so polarized right now that an independent in 2020 would be very tough.”

Playbook: “If you listen to President Trump, Republicans are poised to win big in the midterms, keep control in Washington and win in a landslide in 2020. Nothing to worry about, folks.”

“But that’s a stark contrast to the vast majority of Republican operatives who are increasingly raising the alarm bells that Republicans could lose control not only of the House but, potentially, the Senate.”

“There is a growing fear among GOP political operatives that Trump could depress turnout in the midterms by constantly telling his supporters that Republicans are going to do well in November and not ringing the alarm bells that they need to stave off a blue wave.”