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It Makes No Sense for GOP to Stick with Kavanaugh

September 24, 2018 at 4:22 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Jonathan Chait: “People do make decisions for irrational reasons. But the power ultimately does not rest with Trump, or even the majority of Republicans who have been rushing the hearings through and working to prevent either additional testimony or an FBI investigation. The power to decide rests with any two Republican senators who don’t want to support Kavanaugh on the terms the party has set, which means hurtling through new revelations without even the pretense of due diligence. If any two of them pull the plug, Trump has no choice but to find a new candidate.”

“Kavanaugh is a massive liability now for a party that is already heavily identified with the grossest and most predatory aspects of male sexual entitlement. Keeping Kavanaugh at this point would be an act of sheer madness.”

For members: Kavanaugh Is a Test of the GOP’s Dysfunction

Kavanaugh Will Do Interview on Fox News

September 24, 2018 at 4:11 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh will appear along with his wife on Fox News tonight, The Hill reports.

From a statement: “Judge Kavanaugh will address the allegations of sexual misconduct he is facing, including the new accusation from his former Yale classmate Deborah Ramirez who came forward over the weekend. He will also address the upcoming hearing on Thursday in which one of his accusers, Dr. Christine Blasey Ford, will testify in front of the Senate Judiciary Committee, and the effect these claims have had on his family.”

Republicans Like Their Party Again

September 24, 2018 at 4:09 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Gallup: “Forty-five percent of Americans now have a favorable view of the Republican Party, a nine-point gain from last September’s 36%. It is the party’s most positive image since it registered 47% in January 2011, shortly after taking control of the House in the 2010 midterm elections.”

The reason: “The overall increase in the favorable image of the Republican Party is a result of a jump in the positive views of Republicans, including independents who lean toward the party. The percentage of Republicans and leaners with favorable views of their party grew from 67% last September to 85% now.”


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McConnell Promises Floor Vote on Kavanaugh

September 24, 2018 at 3:54 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) said that the Senate “will hold an up-or-down vote on Brett Kavanaugh’s Supreme Court nomination, amid a committee investigation into sexual misconduct allegations against the nominee,” The Hill reports.

Said McConnell: “I want to make it perfectly clear: Judge Kavanaugh will be voted on here on the Senate floor. Up or down on the Senate floor. This fine nominee to the Supreme Court will receive a vote in the Senate in the near future.”

“He declined, after his floor speech, to say if Republicans would try to vote on Kavanaugh before Oct. 1—the previous timeline for when leadership wanted to get him confirmed.”

Who Will Protect Robert Mueller?

September 24, 2018 at 3:30 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Jeffrey Toobin: “Firing Mueller—who has been investigating Trump and his campaign and Administration for a year and a half—would be the very definition of a high crime and misdemeanor, as impeachable offenses are defined in the Constitution. But would the Republicans who control Congress see it that way?”

“Put another way, the real question is whether there is any political will among the Republicans who run the legislative branch of government to check Trump’s power. One of the signal features of the Trump Presidency has been the abject surrender of the Republican Party, especially in Congress, to all of Trump’s demands. Most congressional Republicans have made dutiful statements urging the President not to fire Mueller, but will they really take any action if Trump actually does it? Their history suggests that they will not—and they may soon have the chance to test that hypothesis. Mueller’s fate has never looked more precarious than it does today, and he would be foolish to think that the Republicans in Congress would do anything to protect him.”

Bloomberg Pledges to Give Most to Female Candidates

September 24, 2018 at 3:04 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg pledged to contribute more money into backing women candidates in the upcoming midterm elections “than any individual ever has before,” The Hill reports.

Said Bloomberg: “I will be putting more money into supporting women candidates this cycle than any individual ever has before because if we’re going to win, it’s going to be women that get us there. And I want to do my part.”

Trump Floated Firing Rosenstein to Save Kavanaugh

September 24, 2018 at 2:06 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Gabriel Sherman: “For all the morning’s madness, there may have been an underlying logic. Over the weekend, as Brett Kavanaugh’s prospects appeared increasingly imperiled, Trump faced two tactical options, both of them fraught. One was to cut Kavanaugh loose. But he was also looking for ways to dramatically shift the news cycle away from his embattled Supreme Court nominee. According to a source briefed on Trump’s thinking, Trump decided that firing Rosenstein would knock Kavanaugh out of the news, potentially saving his nomination and Republicans’ chances for keeping the Senate… The leak about Rosenstein’s resignation could have been the result, and it certainly had the desired effect of driving Kavanaugh out of the news for a few hours.”

“The confusion surrounding Rosenstein’s tenure may not give Kavanaugh a reprieve. In public, Trump continues to voice support for his embattled Supreme Court nominee… But in private, Trump is growing increasingly frustrated by being mired in a deteriorating political situation beyond his control. On Monday morning, a Republican briefed on Trump’s thinking said the president has been considering pulling Kavanaugh’s nomination.”

“According to the source, Trump allies are imploring him to cut Kavanaugh loose for the sake of saving Republicans’ electoral chances in the midterms.”

Kavanaugh Says He Will Not Withdraw

September 24, 2018 at 1:58 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Brett Kavanaugh said he will “not be intimidated into withdrawing” his Supreme Court nomination after a second woman came forward with a sexual misconduct allegation against him, The Hill reports.

Kavanaugh described the accusations against him as “smears, pure and simple.”

He added: “I will not be intimidated into withdrawing from this process. The coordinated effort to destroy my good name will not drive me out. The vile threats of violence against my family will not drive me out. The last- minute character assassination will not succeed.”

The Supreme Court Has a Legitimacy Crisis

September 24, 2018 at 1:55 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“The American public has long had a deep and abiding faith in the Supreme Court as the last say in our public legal disputes. … But in recent years, the public has soured somewhat on the Court. … Now experts say the political firestorm surrounding Kavanaugh’s nomination could tip this trend toward a full-blown crisis,” Vox reports.

“‘If the Court loses legitimacy, either with the public as a whole or with one particular party, then political actors might be tempted to ignore it — which has happened before.’”

Rosenstein Will Stay In Job For Now

September 24, 2018 at 1:01 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein “will stay in the job for now, but will meet with the president on Thursday, after officials described a series of private discussions that pointed to his resignation or firing,” the Washington Post reports.

“The announcement capped a tense few hours after officials said Rosenstein had told White House officials over the weekend that he was willing to resign in the wake of revelations that he once suggested secretly recording President Trump.”

New York Times: “A departure by Mr. Rosenstein would likely thrust the administration into further turmoil just weeks before November’s midterm elections.”

Kavanaugh Faces More Allegations

September 24, 2018 at 11:04 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Montgomery County investigators confirmed they’re aware of another sexual assault complaint against Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh, the Montgomery County Sentinel reports.

“While investigators weren’t specific and spoke on background, they said they are looking at allegations against Kavanaugh during his senior year in high school after an anonymous witness came forward this weekend.”

“This would potentially bring the number to four women accusing Kavanaugh of wrongdoing.”

Rosenstein Has Offered to Resign

September 24, 2018 at 10:52 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein has verbally resigned to Chief of Staff John Kelly in anticipation of being fired by President Trump, Axios reports.

Per a second source with direct knowledge: “He’s expecting to be fired,” so he plans to step down.

Washington Post: “One Trump adviser said the president has not been pressuring Rosenstein to leave the job, but his resignation had been a topic of private discussions all weekend. The person said Rosenstein had expressed to others that he should resign because he ‘felt very compromised’ and was now a potential witness in the Russia probe rather than a supervisor.”

New York Times: “It was also unclear whether Mr. Trump would accept a resignation that would likely thrust the administration into further turmoil just weeks before November’s midterm elections.”

Republicans May Have Ayotte Question Kavanaugh Accuser

September 24, 2018 at 10:50 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Mindful of the optics of an all-male panel grilling an alleged sexual assault victim, Republicans on the Senate Judiciary Committee have begun narrowing their search for an outside counsel to question Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh’s accuser this week,” the Daily Beast reports.

“One name in particular appears to be garnering support among committee Republicans: their one-time colleague, former Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R-NH).”

Kavanaugh Is a Test of the GOP’s Dysfunction

September 24, 2018 at 10:48 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

This piece is only available to Political Wire members.

Despite the swirl of allegations around him, Republicans could continue to press on with Brett Kavanaugh’s nomination to the Supreme Court. They could still theoretically find at least 50 Senate Republicans to support an increasingly unpopular nominee and let Vice President Mike Pence break the tie.

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Trump’s Trade Wars Start to Bite Ahead of Midterms

September 24, 2018 at 10:33 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

President Trump’s trade battles “are already triggering economic warnings — and rising danger for Republicans just ahead of the midterm elections,” Politico reports.

“As fresh U.S. tariffs on $200 billion in Chinese imports take effect Monday, surveys show consumers growing increasingly worried about higher prices this fall. Giant retailers such as Walmart are warning of price increases for manufactured goods. And smaller businesses in swing states and districts from Washington state to Iowa to Tennessee are complaining bitterly about big hits to their exports.”

All Eyes on Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski

September 24, 2018 at 9:28 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

James Hohmann: “No Democrats will vote for Kavanaugh at this point. That means that he’d go down if two of the 51 Republican senators defect.”

“The two senators considered likeliest to flip are the moderate women from Maine and Alaska, who have remained officially undecided and are both supportive of abortion rights. Each is holding their cards close to the vest. Remember, it was Collins and Murkowski who teamed up with John McCain to block the repeal of Obamacare last year. Because Roy Moore lost the special election in Alabama last December, the GOP now has one fewer seat than it did then.”

“If just one GOP senator defected, Vice President Pence would break the tie. But that’s a political headache for Republicans, too, because members like Nevada’s Dean Heller in 2018 and Cory Gardner in 2020 would inevitably face attack ads that accuse them of casting the deciding vote to put an accused sexual predator on the high court.”

“Also keep an eye on Jeff Flake. Retiring this year, the Arizona Republican is thinking a lot about his legacy. Is this a vote he wants to define it?”

Why Kavanaugh’s Friend May Not Want to Testify

September 24, 2018 at 9:25 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Mark Judge, the friend of Brett Kavanaugh who Christine Blasey Ford says was present in the bedroom at the house party when Kavanaugh attempted to rape her, makes an appearance in last night’s New Yorker story:

“After seeing Judge’s denial, Elizabeth Rasor, who met Judge at Catholic University and was in a relationship with him for about three years, said that she felt morally obligated to challenge his account that ‘no horseplay’ took place at Georgetown Prep with women…. ‘I can’t stand by and watch him lie.’ In an interview with The New Yorker, she said, ‘Mark told me a very different story.’ Rasor recalled that Judge had told her ashamedly of an incident that involved him and other boys taking turns having sex with a drunk woman. Rasor said that Judge seemed to regard it as fully consensual. She said that Judge did not name others involved in the incident, and she has no knowledge that Kavanaugh participated.”

Trump Says He’ll Stick with Kavanaugh

September 24, 2018 at 9:08 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

President Trump said that the sexual assault allegations against Brett Kavanaugh are “totally political,” the Associated Press reports.

He added: “I am with him all the way.”

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About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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