Speaker Nancy Pelosi invited President Trump to deliver State of the Union on Feb. 5 in the House chamber, the Washington Post reports.
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Trump Announces Sanctions on Venezuela
The Trump administration announced sanctions on Venezuela’s state-owned oil company to try to force President Maduro to step down, the Washington Post reports.
Jonathan Swan: “The Trump administration is trying to use economic and diplomatic pressure to push for regime change in Venezuela. The White House is hoping that if they deprive Maduro of cash the Venezuelan military will have no reason to stay loyal to him.”
New York Times: “Administration officials indicated that Mr. Trump was still not ruling out military intervention in his efforts to pressure Mr. Maduro to step down.”
GOP Lawmaker Says Trump Can’t Claim Emergency
Rep. Justin Amash (R-MI) slammed President Trump on Twitter for suggesting he might declare a national emergency to direct construction of a border wall, saying that Trump “can’t claim emergency powers” when Congress doesn’t pass legislation he wants.
Amash was commenting on a tweet from Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) who said Trump “must” declare a national emergency for construction of a border wall if there’s no deal with lawmakers.
Why Is Kamala Harris Running?
David Axelrod: “The best campaigns are tactically sound and strategically clear. They share a coherent and compelling narrative about the candidate, campaign and the country.”
“Harris’ nascent message lacks the crystal clarity of, say, Sen. Elizabeth Warren’s. Why is Harris running? What is her vision for a rapidly changing world? Her announcement speech was powerfully delivered but laden with anodyne Democratic applause lines any candidate might offer.”
Trump Faces Major Challenges In Wisconsin
“With less than two years to go before the 2020 election, President Trump faces an uphill climb in winning a second victory in Wisconsin, a battleground that will be at the epicenter of the next presidential campaign,” the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
“Here are three major takeaways from a statewide poll of 800 registered voters released Thursday by the Marquette Law School, its first survey since the 2018 election: High disapproval. Right now, Trump has a precarious path to victory in Wisconsin, a state he won by less than one point in 2016. His approval rating is 44 percent — higher than it is in most national polls, but lower than it was here last fall and weighted down by the unpopular government shutdown that just ended.”
“Democrats more unified than Republicans. … Opposition more intense than support. The intensity of public opinion matters a lot in politics and it is not on Trump’s side: 30 percent of Wisconsin voters ‘strongly’ approve of him and 46 percent ‘strongly’ disapprove.”
Hickenlooper Not Mulling Fusion Ticket with Kasich
Former Gov. John Hickenlooper (D) told the Iowa Starting Line that he would not run on the same ticket as former Gov. John Kasich (R), as some had speculated.
Said Hickenlooper: “No we’re never going to run together. The guy doesn’t support Planned Parenthood, I’m sorry.”
Trump Is Destroying His Case for a National Emergency
The Atlantic: “It has now been more than three weeks since President Trump first began his public flirtation with declaring a national emergency as a way of getting funding to build a wall on the southern border. At first he seemed intent on declaring an emergency immediately. Within days, though, he began saying that he was in no hurry to pull that trigger. On Friday, even as he abruptly caved and allowed the government to reopen for three weeks without wall funding, he again threatened to declare an emergency—but only if Congress doesn’t give him what he wants.”
“Trump no doubt thinks he looks more reasonable if he gives Congress plenty of time to act before declaring an emergency. He might also think that Congress’s repeated failure to provide funds shows the need for emergency action. The truth is the exact opposite. By giving Congress time to definitively establish its unwillingness to fund the border wall, Trump is both taking away any legitimate justification for emergency action and proving his intent to subvert the constitutional balance of powers.”
Bloomberg Says There’s ‘No Way’ an Independent Can Win
Michael Bloomberg issued a statement apparently about Howard Schultz considering an independent bid for president:
Now I have never been a partisan guy — and it’s no secret that I looked at an independent bid in the past. In fact I faced exactly the same decision now facing others who are considering it.
The data was very clear and very consistent. Given the strong pull of partisanship and the realities of the electoral college system, there is no way an independent can win. That is truer today than ever before.
In 2020, the great likelihood is that an independent would just split the anti-Trump vote and end up re-electing the President. That’s a risk I refused to run in 2016 and we can’t afford to run it now.
Trump ‘Very Pissed Off’ at New Tell-All Book
President Trump is “very pissed off” and “really hopping mad” at former aide Cliff Sims’ new book that reveals firsthand the chaos and infighting that is ever present in his White House, Politico reports.
Trump is asking aides: “Who is this guy? Why is he writing this book? He wasn’t even in meetings.”
“He also dismissively refers to Sims — who served until last May as director of White House message strategy and a special assistant to the president —as ‘the videographer’ because he also helped Trump with the weekly video and radio addresses.”
Howard Schultz Doesn’t Understand Politics
Jonathan Chait: “Billionaire coffee-shop mogul Howard Schultz is seriously thinking of running for president as an independent. Schultz appears to be one of those rich people who has confused his success in one field with a general expertise in every other field that interests him. His apparently sincere belief that he can be elected president is the product of a sincere civic-minded commitment to the public good and an almost comic failure to grasp how he might accomplish this. That confusion is probably being spread by his hired staffers, whose financial incentive, conscious or otherwise, is to encourage him to embark on a costly political fiasco.”
“We shouldn’t feel too bad if Schultz wants to waste some of his great-great-grandchildren’s inheritance playing political fantasy camp. The problem is that Schultz’s earnest confusion might succeed just well enough to have catastrophic consequences.”
“Schultz initially contemplated entering the Democratic primary, correctly calculated that he stood no chance of success that way, and then incorrectly decided that he could win as an independent. His public comments reveal how little he grasps about American politics.”
Bevin Dumps Lt. Governor as Running Mate
Kentucky Gov. Matt Bevin (R) announced that state Sen. Ralph Alvarado (R) will be his lieutenant governor running mate as he seeks re-election in 2019, putting an end to speculation about his political plans, the Lexington Herald Leader reports.
When asked why he chose not to run again with Lt. Gov. Jenean Hampton (R), Bevin said “because I chose to run with Ralph Alvarado.”
Hickenlooper Returned to Iowa
Denver Post: “John Hickenlooper, the two-term governor who finished his term earlier this month, articulated his vision of governing that is based more on consensus building and less on conflict. At a house party in this Des Moines suburb, he also shared his personal and political biography while answering questions about health care, immigration and abortion rights.”
Said Hickenlooper: “I’m not just frustrated — I’m over-the-top angry about what’s happened to the country in such a short period of time.”
He added: “I don’t think there is anyone else that can reliably — as I can — beat Donald Trump. My whole public life has been about bringing people together.”
Clinton Hasn’t Closed Door on 2020 Campaign
Hillary Clinton has been telling friends she has not totally closed the door on a 2020 campaign, CNN reports.
“As recently as this week, she was telling people that look, given all this news from the indictments, particularly the Roger Stone indictment, she talked to several people, saying ‘look, I’m not closing the doors to this.'”
However, another close Clinton friend said that “it would surprise me greatly if she actually did it.”
Shutdown Cost the Economy $11 Billion
“The federal government shutdown cost the economy $11 billion, according to a new analysis from the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office, reflecting lost output from federal workers, delayed government spending and reduced demand,” CNBC reports.
“The report, which was released Monday, estimated a hit of $3 billion, or 0.1 percent, to economic activity during the fourth quarter of 2018. The impact was projected to be greater during the first quarter of 2019: $8 billion, or 0.2 percent of GDP.”
“Although most of the damage to the economy will be reversed as federal workers return to their jobs, the CBO estimated $3 billion in economic activity is permanently lost after a quarter of the government was closed for nearly 35 days.”
Trump Says Schultz Doesn’t Have the ‘Guts’ to Run
President Trump questioned the intelligence of former Starbucks CEO Howard Schultz in a tweet after Schultz hinted at an “independent” presidential bid in 2020.
Said Trump: “Howard Schultz doesn’t have the ‘guts’ to run for President! Watched him on 60 Minutes last night and I agree with him that he is not the ‘smartest person.’ Besides, America already has that! I only hope that Starbucks is still paying me their rent in Trump Tower!”
U.S. and Taliban Agree in Principle to Peace Framework
“American and Taliban officials have agreed in principle to the framework of a deal in which the insurgents would guarantee to prevent Afghan territory from being used by terrorists, and that could lead to a full pullout of American troops in return for larger concessions from the Taliban,” the New York Times reports.
In Search of the ‘Most Electable’ Democrat
David Byler: “We’ll start with observed electability — basically the theory that if a candidate did well in major down-ballot elections compared to an appropriate baseline, they’re doing something right and might perform strongly in a general election. We’ll start by looking at the 2018 elections because, by an odd coincidence, most of the top tier of the Democratic field ran in a Senate race last year.”
“This graphic compares each 2018 Democratic Senate candidate’s win or loss margin with Hillary Clinton’s 2016 margin of victory or loss in that state, with a black break-even line. Democratic candidates far above the black line overperformed Clinton’s margin by a lot. The basic idea is that big gains are a good sign regardless of whether a politician runs in a red or blue state — they suggest that those candidates have some appeal that a replacement-level Democratic candidate doesn’t.”
“Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) is the obvious queen of this graphic.”
