A new OH Predictive Insights poll in Arizona finds Sen. Martha McSally (R-AZ) leading new challenger Mark Kelly (D) by just two points, 46% to 44%.
That edge is well within the poll’s 4 percentage point margin of error.
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Barr Confirmed as Attorney General
The U.S. Senate voted to confirm William Barr as attorney general, “putting him in command of the Justice Department at one of the most politically charged moments in its history,” the Washington Post reports.
“Once Barr is sworn in, he will be thrust into supervising the special counsel probe into whether President Trump’s campaign worked with Russia to swing the 2016 election — and will be saddled with the political baggage that comes with it.”
“Barr, who has said he considers Mueller a friend, will oversee the probe at a particularly sensitive time, as it is widely presumed that Mueller is nearing the end of his work and lawmakers and the public are growing eager to learn his conclusions.”
Quote of the Day
“Let’s all pray that the president will have wisdom to sign the bill so government doesn’t shut down.”
— Sen. Charles Grassley (R-IA), offering his own prayer after the official prayer to open Senate business.
The Manafort Case Proves Collusion
Jonathan Chait: “Here we have, in this case alone, every single element one would need to establish collusion. There was a meeting between Trump’s campaign manager and a Russian operative; the discussion of something Russia would gain from a Trump victory (a favorable Ukraine settlement); the exchange of information that would assist Russian campaign intervention (polling data that would allow Russia to target its social-media attacks). Also, they left the meeting place via separate entrances. This isn’t merely suspicious. It’s a scene from The Americans.”
“And perhaps most curious of all, you have the interest of the president. If Manafort was just running a side hustle behind Trump’s back, Trump would have little reason to care about him getting caught. Prosecutors have already charged that Manafort maintained secret contacts with the White House as recently as 2018.”
“The revelations about Manafort have dribbled out slowly enough that it’s easy to lose track of how far along they have come.”
Trump Gripes He Was Outplayed by Democrats
“President Trump appears to be moving — unhappily — closer to signing a bipartisan agreement that provides only a fraction of the money he demanded for a border wall,” CNN reports.
“But in conversations with allies over the past days, he has griped that Republican negotiators were outplayed by their Democratic counterparts, securing a border funding number far smaller than Trump has spent the last two months demanding.”
“In public, Trump has remained gracious about the GOP effort… But privately, Trump has cast the GOP’s dealmaking efforts as inadequate and wondered why he, an experienced dealmaker, wasn’t consulted at more regular intervals as the two sides haggled over an agreement.”
Biden Almost Certain to Run for President
Sources tell The Hill that former Vice President Joe Biden is almost certain to enter the 2020 presidential race.
“It’s pretty clear he’s jumping in,” said one source with direct knowledge, adding that Biden is “95 percent there.”
“In recent days, Biden has sought to build support from grassroots activists and is specifically asking donors for their help in the lead up to an announcement.”
Amazon Pulls Out of Planned New York City Campus
“Amazon said on Thursday that it was canceling plans to build a corporate campus in New York City. The company had planned to build a sprawling complex in Long Island City, Queens, in exchange for nearly $3 billion in state and city incentives,” the New York Times reports.
“But the deal had run into fierce opposition from local lawmakers who criticized providing subsidies to one of the world’s most valuable companies. Amazon said the deal would have created more than 25,000 jobs.”
Justice Officials Discussed Pushing Trump Out of Office
“Andrew McCabe, the former deputy F.B.I. director, said in an interview aired on Thursday that top Justice Department officials were so alarmed by President Trump’s decision in May 2017 to fire James Comey, the bureau’s director, that they discussed whether to recruit cabinet members to invoke the 25th Amendment to remove Mr. Trump from office,” the New York Times reports.
“The concerns about the president’s actions also prompted Mr. McCabe to order the bureau’s team investigating Russia’s election interference to expand their scope to also investigate whether Mr. Trump had obstructed justice by firing Mr. Comey. They also were to examine if he had been working on behalf of Russia against American interests.”
After the interview aired, Trump ripped McCabe on Twitter, calling him “a disgrace to the FBI and a disgrace to our Country.”
Oklahoma May Soon Allow Carrying Guns Without Permit
“A bill vetoed last year by Oklahoma’s Republican former governor that would allow adult residents to carry a gun without any training or a background check has easily passed a vote in the state House on its way to the desk of the new governor, who is expected to sign it into law,” the AP reports.
Nearly Half of Republicans Think God Wanted Trump
A new Fox News poll finds that nearly half of Republicans, 45%, believe that God wanted Donald Trump to be president, with another 18% indicating that they weren’t sure.
“More than half of white evangelical Protestants — 55% — said that God endorsed Trump. Only 3 in 10 evangelicals said categorically that they didn’t think Trump had God’s explicit support in the election.”
Republicans Don’t Want 2020 to Be Referendum on Trump
James Hohmann: “President Trump will struggle to get reelected if the 2020 campaign is purely a referendum on his own performance, but elections typically become choices between two flawed candidates and their visions.”
“Republicans are banking on this, and Trump is doing everything possible – more than a year before we learn the identity of the presumptive Democratic nominee – to paint an apocalyptic picture of what would happen if he loses.”
“Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) won’t be on the ballot next year anywhere but the Bronx and Queens, but you wouldn’t know that from listening to GOP messaging. Republicans have gleefully elevated her into the avatar of the opposition, and her botched rollout of the Green New Deal resolution has given them fodder for over-the-top attacks that foreshadow how the next 21 months will likely play out.”
The Hill: “In addition to the vote after next week’s recess on the star freshman’s climate change plan, they say the Senate could find itself considering Ocasio-Cortez’s call for a 70 percent marginal tax rate on the nation’s highest income earners, providing ‘Medicare for all’ and abolishing Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE).”
Will Clarence Thomas Retire This Summer?
Jeffrey Toobin: “It’s true that Mitch McConnell, the Senate Majority Leader, would likely violate his Merrick Garland rule and try to push through a nominee in 2020, an election year, but 2019 would be much easier to navigate. So, many conservatives are asking, why shouldn’t Thomas leave now?”
“It seems that the President may have had the same thought. Trump has shown unusual solicitude for Justice Thomas and his wife, Ginni, a hard-right political activist. The President and the First Lady had the Thomases to dinner, and then Trump welcomed Ginni and some of her movement colleagues to the White House for an hour-long discussion.”
“Trump rarely engages in this kind of cultivation, and it’s reasonable to speculate that he’s trying to persuade the Justice that his seat would be in good hands if he decided to leave.”
All Pain, No Gain
First Read: “So we went from Democrats once offering $25 billion for a border wall in exchange for protection for DACA recipients … to Dem leaders offering Trump $1.3 billion for border fencing … to a floated compromise of $2.5 billion during the shutdown … to a final deal of $1.375 billion for fencing.”
“For all the (valid) grief that Barack Obama got for his negotiating skills, how is this not substantially worse?”
“As a real-estate negotiator, Trump would apply maximum pressure to wear down the opposition. That tactic works when the stakes are low. But when the stakes are high – and the other side has almost the same power in the negotiations – it doesn’t work as well.”
“When it comes to this fight over the border wall/fencing/barriers, Trump lost. And he lost badly.”
New York Times: “In pursuit of a wall, President Trump ran into one.”
Worried Texas Republicans Call for More National Help
“Texas Republicans have long coasted to re-election while ignoring their Democratic opponents. Not anymore,” the Fort Worth Star-Telegram reports.
“For 2020, GOP incumbents in what has historically been one of the most solidly red states in the union are plotting offense-driven campaigns they hope will insulate them even if the party brand takes a nosedive.”
“Strategists and party operatives interviewed by the Star-Telegram say the approach comes after a number of long-serving Republicans notched closer-than-expected victories in 2018, while their party lost ground in the suburbs. Even popular lawmakers aren’t safe if Texas voters continue to move away from the GOP in the Donald Trump era, the strategists said. So they are aiming to more aggressively drive attention to their opponents instead.”
McCabe Ordered Obstruction of Justice Probe Into Trump
“Soon after speaking to President Trump about the firing of his boss James Comey, Andrew McCabe, who became the bureau’s acting director, began obstruction of justice and counterintelligence investigations involving the president and his ties to Russia. In his first television interview since his own firing, McCabe tells 60 Minutes he wanted those inquiries to be documented and underway so they would be difficult to quash without raising scrutiny.”
Said McCabe: “I was very concerned that I was able to put the Russia case on absolutely solid ground, in an indelible fashion. That were I removed quickly, or reassigned or fired, that the case could not be closed or vanish in the night without a trace.”
The Atlantic runs an excerpt from McCabe’s new book, The Threat.
DNC Will Announce Debate Qualifications This Week
DNC Chairman Tom Perez says he’ll announce details of the first two presidential primary debates by the end of the week, the AP reports.
“Perez says he plans to include a grassroots fundraising metric as part of the qualifying threshold. He wants that to make the debate more inclusive than just using polling.”
“The first two debates are slated for June and July. They’ll be the first two of six debates in 2019, with at least six more to follow in 2020.”
Will Shunning Big Money Hurt Democrats?
Reuters: “The Democratic candidates are expected to push one another to show their commitment to getting big money out of politics, following the lead of Democrats who helped the party retake control of the U.S. House of Representatives from Trump’s fellow Republicans in last year’s congressional elections.”
“Many Democrats have decried the influence of money from corporations and wealthy individuals on elections. But some strategists worry that the candidates could go too far and hamper the party’s chances in the November 2020 general election by giving a financial edge to the Republicans.”
“All of the Democrats who have launched a 2020 campaign or are formally considering a run have sworn off accepting corporate PAC money, campaign contributions that are pooled by corporate fundraising committees.”
Trump Campaign Focuses on Three Possible Challengers
Politico: “Donald Trump’s political advisers are homing in on three declared Democratic candidates who they believe are the most viable at this early stage of the campaign.”
“The reelection campaign has begun compiling opposition research on Kamala Harris, Elizabeth Warren and Cory Booker and is eyeing opportunities to attack them. The effort began over the weekend when the Trump campaign sent out a news release ahead of Warren’s launch criticizing her past claims of Native American heritage.
