“Economists at ratings agency S&P Global raised the probability of a U.S. recession in 2019 to 20–25% on Wednesday, in large part because of the flattening U.S. Treasury yield curve,” Axios reports.
Is Bernie’s Long Game the Right Play for 2020?
First Read: “Here’s something to chew on: Bernie Sanders has been far from a leading figure on the biggest issues of the day as it relates to Donald Trump’s presidency.”
“Think about it: the Russia investigation, the border wall, family separations, ethics investigations, Supreme Court nominations, the shutdown. On all of those issues, he’s been either a minor voice or a non-figure. Instead, Sanders – like he did in 2016 – is playing a longer game.”
“It’s an interesting gamble: Do Democratic primary voters and general-election voters want transformative change? Or do they just want to replace Trump?”
“Bernie’s betting on the former over the latter.”
2020 Presidential Election Map
In case you’ve missed it, check out my new interactive Electoral Vote Map for the 2020 presidential election.
Please link to it, bookmark it and share with your friends!
Exchange of the Day
President Trump was asked by reporters about his administration’s push to decriminalize homosexuality around the world:
Q: Mr. President, on your push to decriminalize homosexuality, are you doing that? And why?
TRUMP: Say it?
Q: Your push to decriminalize homosexuality around the world.
TRUMP: I don’t know which report you’re talking about. We have many reports. Anybody else?
Kim Jong Un Will Travel By Train to Summit with Trump
Reuters: “Kim will likely travel to Vietnam by train. It could take at least two and a half days to travel the thousands of kilometers through China… That means he would have to set off later this week in time for his planned Feb. 25 arrival.”
Many Unhappy If Child Married Someone of Different Party
A new PRRI poll finds that 45% of Democrats would be unhappy if their child married a Republican.
In contrast, 35% of Republicans would be unhappy if their child married a Democrat.
Tennessee Governor Regrets Attending ‘Old South’ Parties
Four decades removed from his time as a student at Auburn University, Tennessee Gov. Bill Lee (R) told the Tennessean he now regrets participating in “Old South” parties with his fraternity.
Said Lee: “I never intentionally acted in an insensitive way, but with the benefit of hindsight, I can see that participating in that was insensitive and I’ve come to regret it.”
White House Interns Forced to Sign NDAs
Daily Beast: “Upon orientation, the interns signed their very own non-disclosure agreements (NDAs), with the envoy of the counsel’s office warning them that a breach of the NDA—blabbing to the media, for instance—could result in legal, and thus financial, consequences for them. Interns were also told that they would not receive their own copies, these sources said.”
“This was all a standard facet of the Trump intern orientation process, billed as an ‘ethics training’—underscored by implicit legal threats from President Trump’s in-house lawyers.”
“To veterans of other administrations, the act of compelling interns to sign these types of NDAs would seem odd, if not downright unenforceable or legally dubious. To this White House, it’s standard operating procedure.”
Obama Political Arm Merges with Holder Redistricting Effort
“President Obama’s political organization is merging with Eric Holder’s National Redistricting Action Fund, giving it control of the vaunted list of supporters, donors and volunteers that Obama and his team built over more than a decade,” The Hill reports.
“The efforts ahead of the decennial reapportionment and redistricting process that begins next year, and that will have a major effect on the apportionment of electoral college votes and congressional districts.”
Senate Investigators Seek Moscow-Based Trump Associate
“Senate investigators want to question a Moscow-based American businessman with longstanding ties to President Donald Trump after witnesses told them he could shed light on the President’s commercial and personal activities in Russia dating back to the 1990s,” multiple sources have told CNN.
“The Senate Intelligence Committee, which is probing allegations of Russian interference in the 2016 elections, has been keen to speak with David Geovanis for several months.”
Biden’s Decision Will Change Contours of Race
First Read: “With Bernie Sanders in the 2020 race, Biden’s decision to run or to pass could be the last big question remaining when it comes to the composition of the Dem field — outside of Beto O’Rourke (who looks more and more like he’s running).”
“If Biden’s in, it potentially changes the math in places like South Carolina and the South (given his standing with African-American voters), and it narrows that pragmatic lane that Amy Klobuchar has been hugging lately.”
“But if Biden’s out, it opens up both South Carolina and the South, as well as that pragmatic lane.”
Roger Stone Could Go to Jail Today
“Federal Judge Amy Berman Jackson is set to decide Thursday whether to stiffen — or revoke — the release bond of Republican trickster Roger Stone for posting an Instagram photo of the judge next to an apparent rifle scope’s crosshair,” CNBC reports.
“The abruptly scheduled hearing in Washington federal court, set for 2:30 p.m. ET, doesn’t bode well for Stone, a longtime friend and advisor of President Trump.”
Pompeo Rules Out Senate Bid
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo told NBC News he would not run for U.S. Senate from Kansas.
Said Pompeo: “It’s ruled out. I’m here. I’m loving it… I’m going to be the Secretary of State as long as President Trump gives me the opportunity to serve as America’s senior diplomat.”
The Keys to Winning the Democratic Primary
Molly Ball: “The field is likely to be the largest in either party’s history, there’s no front runner in sight, and the stakes could hardly be higher. It’s not just that many Democrats argue Donald Trump is a threat to American democracy. The party’s very identity is up for grabs, as a vast and historically diverse crop of candidates brings big new ideas to a demanding, divided base.”
“As much as they would like to move away from white male dominance, some rank-and-file Democrats worry that doing so would hurt the party’s chances against Trump. They fear that a woman or nonwhite candidate would be damaged by Trump’s sexism and race-baiting. And to the party faithful, winning is everything.”
“More than anything—more than policy or charisma or age or race or gender—Democratic voters say they care about whether a candidate can beat Donald Trump.”
Mueller Is Driving the Timing of His Report
Marcy Wheeler: “I’m fairly certain the concerns about Barr coming in and forcing Mueller to finish this are misplaced. I say that, in part, because Mueller seemed to be preparing for this timing. I say it, too, because Barr is too close to Mueller to do that to him.”
“That says that Mueller is choosing this timing (and choosing not to wait for the appeals to be done). Whatever reason dictates this timing, by doing it in this window, Mueller can ensure the legitimacy of what happens, both legally (because Barr will be in place) and politically (because it will be clear Rosenstein presided over it).”
“So whatever comes next week, people on both sides should accept that it is the outcome of the investigation that Mueller deemed appropriate.”
What Happens to Mueller’s Sealed Indictments?
Garrett Graff: “The media and bloggers have regularly tracked the abnormally large number of sealed indictments filed over the last year in DC federal court, the jurisdiction where Mueller has been worked, including 14 added between August and November—a period where Mueller was theoretically ‘quiet’ around the midterm election—and four recent sealed indictment that seemed to parallel the Stone indictment.”
“Whether any relatee to Mueller remains to be seen, but in some ways the idea of piling up sealed indictments would have been the smartest way for Mueller to ensure that if he was fired, his case lived on.”
New Jersey Democrats Line Up Behind Booker
“Sen. Cory Booker’s campaign will announce a slew of endorsements Thursday from New Jersey Democrats in a show of home state support so far unmatched by rival Democratic candidates for president,” CNN reports.
“Every Democrat in New Jersey’s congressional delegation is throwing their support behind the state’s junior senator — including 11 House members, among them House Energy and Commerce Committee Chairman Frank Pallone, and Sen. Bob Menendez, who previously announced he would back Booker.”
Netanyahu Challengers Unite In Bid to Defeat Him
“Two of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s strongest challengers in April elections have announced a centrist alliance in a bid to defeat him,” the BBC reports.
“Ex-army chief Benny Gantz and centrist politician Yair Lapid agreed to rotate as prime minister if they win.”
“Separately, Mr Netanyahu forged an alliance with several far-right parties to try to shore up votes. His right-wing Likud party leads the polls despite an investigation into corruption allegations against him.”
Axios: “The joint list does not have a common political platform — and, on many issues, there are big differences between the factions. However, the main issue they all agree on is the need to replace Netanyahu.”
