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Race for House Control Is a Toss Up

June 3, 2018 at 10:59 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

The CBS News/YouGov Battleground Tracker finds the 2018 midterm elections looks like a toss-up contest for control of the House, as the Democrats would most likely get 219 seats if the election were today (just one more than the 218 needed for a majority) and the Republicans 216.

With a margin of error of nine seats on the model, control is totally up for grabs.

“This would amount to a sizable gain for Democrats, who currently hold 195 seats (including vacant seats) – yet it just barely puts them in position to take control, given the deficit they have to make up. But it’s not yet the massive “blue wave” that some pundits have speculated will sweep the Democrats to a comfortable majority, despite their high-profile wins and strong turnout in recent special elections.”

Giuliani Would Recommend Trump Not Testify

June 3, 2018 at 10:32 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Rudy Giuliani told ABC News that the president’s legal team is “leaning toward not” recommending he participate in an interview with the team investigating Russian interference in the 2016 elections.

Said Giuliani: “We’re leaning toward not. But look, if they can convince that it will be brief, it would be to the point, there were five or six points they have to clarify, and with that, we can get this long nightmare for the American public over.”

Giuliani Says Trump Has Power to Pardon Himself

June 3, 2018 at 10:27 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Rudy Giuliani told ABC News that President Trump “probably does” have the power to pardon himself.

However, Giuliani added, “I think the political ramifications of that would be tough. Pardoning other people is one thing. Pardoning yourself is another. Other presidents have pardoned people in circumstances like this, both in their administration and sometimes the next president even of a different party will come along and pardon.”

Meanwhile, former U.S. Attorney Preet Bharara told CNN: “I think if the president decided he was going to pardon himself, I think it is almost self-executing impeachment. Whether or not there is an argument that is not what the framers could have intended.”


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Trump Moves to Unravel International Trade

June 3, 2018 at 7:59 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“President Trump appears prepared to unravel 70 years of pain­staking effort that the United States has led to build an inter­national system of trade based on mutually accepted rules and principles,” the Washington Post reports.

“Ever since an agreement on trade emerged in 1947 from the ashes of World War II, presidents of both parties have pushed this system as a way to strengthen alliances and promote the expansion of democracy and prosperity in Europe and Asia.”

“But with Trump’s decision last week to enact aluminum and steel tariffs against U.S. allies in Europe and North America, he is subverting previously agreed-­upon trade pacts. The result is a brewing trade war with Canada, Mexico and Europe, which are expressing shock and bitter frustration while enacting tariffs of their own on a bevy of American products.”

Trump Spends More on Mar-a-Lago Than Mueller on Probe

June 2, 2018 at 6:20 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“President Trump has spent more in taxpayer dollars on his frequent trips to his Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida than Robert Mueller’s office has spent on the Russia investigation so far, despite Trump’s attacks on the high cost of the Russia probe,” The Hill reports.

“The president has repeatedly attacked the Mueller probe for racking up millions of dollars in expenditures after the Justice Department reported this week that the special counsel’s office had spent roughly $16.7 million… But that number is dwarfed by the amount required to pay for the president’s numerous trips to the ‘Winter White House,’ which The Washington Post and Politico analyses have estimated to cost taxpayers on average between $1 and $3 million dollars per trip.”

Trump’s Lawyers Argue He Can Stop Mueller Probe

June 2, 2018 at 2:55 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“President Trump’s lawyers have for months quietly waged a campaign to keep the special counsel from trying to force him to answer questions in the investigation into whether he obstructed justice, asserting that he cannot be compelled to testify and arguing in a confidential letter that he could not possibly have committed obstruction because he has unfettered authority over all federal investigations,” the New York Times reports.

“In a brash assertion of presidential power, the 20-page letter — sent to the special counsel, Robert Mueller III and obtained by The New York Times — contends that the president cannot illegally obstruct any aspect of the investigation into Russia’s election meddling because the Constitution empowers him to, “if he wished, terminate the inquiry, or even exercise his power to pardon.”

“Mr. Trump’s lawyers fear that if he answers questions, either voluntarily or in front of a grand jury, he risks exposing himself to accusations of lying to investigators, a potential crime or impeachable offense.”

GOP Lawmaker Requests Email Audit of His Staff

June 2, 2018 at 10:59 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“On Monday, freshman Rep. Tom Garrett (R-VA) announced he will not seek re-election. On Wednesday, he requested an investigation into his own congressional staff,” NPR reports.

“The congressional source said Garrett’s request was legal, but unusual. Lawmakers do not regularly request IT audits of their own employees, although the source said there is nothing that prevents a lawmaker from making such a request.”

Why Pardons Won’t Thwart Russia Investigation

June 2, 2018 at 10:51 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Former Attorney General Eric Holder told an audience in New Hampshire that even if President Trump is using his pardon power to send a signal to potential witnesses in the Mueller probe, people who are pardoned can still go before a grand jury, Axios reports.

Said Holder: “If Bob Mueller, for instance wants to take a pardoned person, put that person before a grand jury, that person no longer has the ability to say, ‘I’m going to invoke my Fifth Amendment right’ and that person then becomes a perfect witness for the special counsel.”

Senate Republicans Upbeat on Midterm Outlook

June 2, 2018 at 10:41 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

New York Times: “Mr. Trump is enjoying a modest increase in his approval ratings this year and, as important, is attacking Democrats rather than inciting the internecine feuds that could depress Republican turnout. The economy continues to grow, as demonstrated by Friday’s unexpectedly strong jobs report, while unemployment has fallen to levels unseen since 2000.”

“Republicans, already on the offensive thanks to a Senate map that includes 10 Democratic-held seats in states Mr. Trump won, have seen nearly every electoral variable turn in their direction in recent months: They have averted disaster in the West Virginia primary, successfully recruited their preferred candidates in North Dakota and Florida, and watched a renegade Republican challenger wane in one of Mississippi’s two Senate races.”

Trump Allies Gang Up on Gowdy

June 2, 2018 at 10:36 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Rep. Trey Gowdy (R-SC) “has been a pitbull investigator for Republicans for years. Now, he’s is in President Trump’s doghouse for daring to challenge the president’s unsupported claim that Democrats and their sympathizers in the FBI embedded a spy in his 2016 campaign,” Politico reports.

“Trump allies have been pummeling Gowdy in recent days, branding him a gullible or clueless backer of the intelligence community.”

Half of Trump’s EPA Appointments Are From Industry

June 2, 2018 at 10:34 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“An analysis by the Associated Press shows that nearly half the political appointees hired at EPA under President Donald Trump have industry ties. Of more than 60 EPA hires tracked by the AP over the last year, about one-third worked as registered lobbyists or lawyers for chemical manufacturers, fossil fuel producers or other EPA-regulated companies.”

U.S. Planning for Possible Summit with Putin

June 2, 2018 at 7:06 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

The United States is planning for a potential summit between President Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, the Wall Street Journal reports.

U.S. ambassador to Russia Jon Huntsman has been in Washington, D.C., to coordinate a possible meeting.

New Russian Site Is Designed to Sway U.S. Voters

June 2, 2018 at 7:00 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

McClatchy: “A new Russian influence operation has surfaced that mirrors some of the activity of an internet firm that the FBI says was deeply involved in efforts to sway the 2016 U.S. elections, a cybersecurity firm says.”

“A website called usareally.com appeared on the internet May 17 and called on Americans to rally in front of the White House June 14 to celebrate President Trump’s birthday, which is also Flag Day… The website’s operators once worked out of the same office building in St. Petersburg, Russia, where the Kremlin-linked Internet Research Agency had its headquarters.”

Bonus Quote of the Day

June 1, 2018 at 11:28 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Do you really want to know what I think about those jerks? I think they’re a waste of time. They’re guys who can’t get a real job, ethics watchdog? Who gets a job — ethics watchdog? Give me a break.”

— Charles Kushner, in an interview with The Real Deal, about his son’s ethics problems in the White House.

Bannon Predicts Shutdown Before Midterms

June 1, 2018 at 11:19 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Steve Bannon told CNN that he thinks President Trump will force another government shutdown this fall.

Said Bannon: “I believe that what he’s going to do is, as we come up on September 30, if that appropriations bill does not include spending to fully build his wall — not some $1.6 billion for prototypes, I mean to build the southern wall — I believe he will shut down the government.”

He added: “The wall is not just totemic. The wall is absolutely central to his program.”

Obama Will Appear at DNC Gala

June 1, 2018 at 11:16 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Barack Obama is set to help Democrats gear up for the 2018 midterm elections, which supporters hope could see the party take control of at least the House this year,” NBC News reports.

“Obama will appear at a Democratic National Committee Gala Dinner in Los Angeles on June 28, organizers said in an emailed invitation.“

GOP Braces for Brutal Leadership Race

June 1, 2018 at 7:39 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) “is already working to line up support behind the scenes. But his ascension is unlikely to be smooth,” Time reports.

“These Republicans expect a challenger to emerge from the right-wing Freedom Caucus. More intriguingly, they believe that divisions among the GOP’s Establishment bloc may create an opening for a compromise candidate such as Rep. Kevin Brady of Texas, chairman of the powerful Ways and Means Committee, or Rep. Mark Walker of North Carolina, the chairman of the conservative Republican Study Committee.”

U.S. Seeks Discreet Way to Pay for Kim Jong Un’s Hotel

June 1, 2018 at 7:31 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Washington Post: “At an island resort off the coast of Singapore, U.S. event planners are working day and night with their North Korean counterparts to set up a summit designed to bring an end to Pyongyang’s nuclear weapons program. But a particularly awkward logistical issue remains unresolved… Who’s going to pay for Kim Jong Un’s hotel stay?”

“The prideful but cash-poor pariah state requires that a foreign country foot the bill at its preferred lodging: The Fullerton, a magnificent neoclassical hotel near the mouth of the Singapore River where just one presidential suite costs more than $6,000 per night.”

“When it comes to paying for lodging at North Korea’s preferred 5-star luxury hotel, the United States is open to covering the costs, the two people said, but it’s mindful that Pyongyang may view a U.S. payment as insulting. As a result, U.S. planners are considering asking the host country of Singapore to pay for the North Korean delegation’s bill.”

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About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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