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Russian ‘Troll Factory’ Set on Fire

October 9, 2018 at 4:09 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“The office of Russia’s infamous troll factory believed to be at the vanguard of Russia’s information war has been set on fire in St. Petersburg overnight,” the Moscow Times reports.

“An investigation revealed last year that the secretive troll factory had rebranded itself as a media conglomerate with 16 news websites generating more than 30 million pageviews every month. Its operational hub, a website called FAN (Federal News Agency), is based a stone’s throw from the troll farm’s original location in northern St. Petersburg.”

Hogan Holds Massive Lead In Maryland

October 9, 2018 at 4:02 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new Washington Post-University of Maryland poll finds Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan (R) has built a formidable lead over challenger Ben Jealous (D), 58% to 38%,”with few voters undecided, and most preferring the incumbent Republican even on key Jealous policy issues such as health care and education.”

Trump Hints at Ivanka, Dina Powell for UN Ambassador

October 9, 2018 at 4:00 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

President Trump appeared to cast his daughter and a former senior White House national security official as the frontrunners to replace Nikki Haley as ambassador to the United Nations, Roll Call reports.

He said daughter Ivanka Trump would be “wonderful” in the role and added that Dina Powell, a former deputy national security adviser, is a “person I would consider” for the job.

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Democrats Can Exploit the ‘McCain Divide’ in the GOP

October 9, 2018 at 3:16 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

This piece is only available to Political Wire members.

A new Democracy Corps survey in 12 battleground states finds President Trump has pushed up his job approval among his Evangelical and Tea Party base to 97%, but he’s down 13 points among the moderate, secular and Catholic conservatives.

The results show that the Republican party is more divided than most think.

Here’s one way to look at the GOP base:

What’s interesting is that this map mirrors one showing the late Sen. John McCain’s approval ratings:

The Evangelical and Tea Party blocs played a big role in the GOP primaries and they respond extremely well to Trump’s divisive political rhetoric. Trump has courted this group effectively to pressure GOP lawmakers who are afraid of future primary challengers.

But as McCain’s funeral showed, there are plenty of Republican voters who have an aversion to the ugly strategy and polarization pressed by President Trump and the Tea Party in particular.

As Stan Greenberg and James Carville observe:

This is a Republican Party divided over the intense partisanship that Senator McCain hated and tried to address at his funeral. You can see that in the GOP’s view of the Tea Party movement that has shaped GOP politics and was President Trump’s base from his “birther” beginning. Trump’s loyalist base of Tea Party supporters and Evangelicals, not surprisingly, give positive marks for this social movement that has been fighting the “PC” trends in the country. But moderates and secular conservatives view the Tea Party with as negative scores as you can imagine within the same party.

This is the divide that Democrats can exploit in this year’s midterm elections and in the 2020 presidential elections. The political party that is more divided is usually the one that loses.

Kemp Holds Small Lead In Georgia

October 9, 2018 at 2:44 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new SurveyUSA poll in Georgia finds Brian Kemp (R) leading Stacey Abrahms (D) in the race for governor, 47% to 45%.

Key finding: “Abrams, who is African-American, leads 17:1 among black voters, who represent 30% of the likely electorate, according to SurveyUSA’s modeling. White voters, who make up 64% of SurveyUSA’s electorate, back Kemp nearly 3:1.”

Beware of the Kavanaugh Narratives

October 9, 2018 at 2:25 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Stuart Rothenberg: “My point is not that any single poll, article or talking head is wrong. It is simply a reminder that Republicans (and their media allies over at Fox News) have an interest in arguing that Kavanaugh has changed the midterm dynamics no matter whether or not it has. And even the major mainstream electronic and print media have an incentive to raise questions about a so-called Republican surge.”

“President Trump certainly is trying to use wedge issues to energize his supporters, and there may well be an uptick in GOP enthusiasm after the recent Supreme Court fight. But, based on the past, I’m skeptical the Kavanaugh fight will fundamentally change next month’s outcomes.”

“Republicans won the Kavanaugh fight, and they now have complete control of the federal government. Traditionally, anger, frustration, disappointment and fear are stronger motivators than satisfaction, relief and euphoria. Democrats and liberals simply are more desperate than are conservatives and Republicans, which is one reason I doubt GOP turnout will match Democratic turnout.”

Philip Bump: This is not what a pro-Kavanaugh electoral backlash looks like.

Bonus Quote of the Day

October 9, 2018 at 1:34 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“You cannot be civil with a political party that wants to destroy what you stand for, what you care about.”

— Hillary Clinton, in an interview with CNN.

Democrats Maintain Strong Lead for Congress

October 9, 2018 at 12:43 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new CNN poll finds Democrats leading Republicans on the generic congressional ballot by 54% to 41% among likely voters.

“This is the widest margin of support for Democrats in a midterm cycle since 2006, when at this point, the party held a whopping 21-point lead over Republicans among likely voters. That’s also when Democrats seized control of the House from Republicans, making Nancy Pelosi speaker until 2011.”

Political Book Sales Mirror a Divided Country

October 9, 2018 at 12:38 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Data published by book store chain Barnes & Noble show a 57% boost in political book sales compared to the prior year, CNBC reports.

But with a few exceptions, states that voted for Donald Trump in the 2016 presidential election tended to also favor the books that cast him in a friendlier light, and vice versa.

Ethics Group Questions Haley’s Use of Private Planes

October 9, 2018 at 12:09 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“A Washington, D.C., watchdog group wants a federal investigation into U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley’s use of private planes owned by South Carolina businessmen,” McClatchy reports.

“The group, Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington, says Haley undervalued the flights by tens of thousands of dollars on her annual financial disclosure form required of federal officials. The ethics group says the flights create the impression of impermissible gifts to a public official.”

16 Accused of Sexual Misconduct Won Their Primaries

October 9, 2018 at 11:58 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A Vice News review has found that at least 30 state lawmakers publicly involved in sexual misconduct scandals since 2017 are up for re-election this year. Despite those allegations, 16 of those candidates won their primaries — which are now over in all but one state — and advanced to the November general election.

Two of those 16 lawmakers, who collectively represent 10 states, are almost guaranteed to be re-elected, since they won’t face a challenger come November.

Quote of the Day

October 9, 2018 at 11:51 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“I can’t say enough good things about Jared and Ivanka. Jared is such a hidden genius that no one understands.”

— Departing U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, quoted by The Hill.

Democrats Maintain Edge In New Jersey’s 11th

October 9, 2018 at 11:50 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new Monmouth poll in New Jersey’s 11th congressional district finds Mikie Sherrill (D) maintains her lead over Jay Webber (R),  48% to 44% among likely voters.

“The race stands at 50% for Sherrill and 43% for Webber using a model that incorporates a turnout surge in Democratic precincts. A model projecting lower overall turnout shows Sherrill with a 48% to 45% edge over Webber.”

Haley Says She Won’t Run for President In 2020

October 9, 2018 at 11:37 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Departing UN Ambassador Nikki Haley denied she is stepping down later this year to prepare for a 2020 bid for the White House, Roll Call reports.

Said Haley: “I don’t have anything set on where I’m going to go. I’m a believer in term limits.”

She added: “For all of you who are going to ask about 2020, no I am not running for 2020. I can promise you what I’ll be doing is campaigning for this one,” pointing to President Trump.

Avenatti Taunts Donald Trump Jr.

October 9, 2018 at 11:12 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

After Donald Trump Jr. joked over Twitter that Michael Avenatti could pick former Rep. Anthony Weiner as his running mate, Avenatti responded that the president’s son will soon “be indicted” on federal charges.

Said Avenatti: “If I were you, the last thing I would be doing is referencing other people getting out of federal prison. Because after you are indicted, you will likely be passing them on your way in. BTW, they don’t have silver spoons or gold toilets in the joint. Buckle up, Buttercup.”

Nikki Haley Resigns as U.N. Ambassador

October 9, 2018 at 10:15 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

President Trump has accepted Nikki Haley’s resignation as UN Ambassador, Axios reports.

“Haley discussed her resignation with Trump last week when she visited him at the White House… Her news shocked a number of senior foreign policy officials in the Trump administration.”

Trump Turned Kavanaugh Ceremony Into Political Rally

October 9, 2018 at 9:29 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Hillary Clinton chided President Trump, accusing him of turning the ceremonial swearing in of new Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh into a “political rally” in the White House, the Washington Post reports.

Clinton’s comments referred to a boisterous event in the East Room on Monday night that began with Trump apologizing to Kavanaugh “for the terrible pain and suffering” he said they were forced to endure during a chaotic confirmation process.

Trump to Make Ethanol Announcement In Iowa

October 9, 2018 at 9:26 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Des Moines Register: “After months of false starts, President Trump will tell Iowans on Tuesday during a campaign rally in Council Bluffs that he’s opening the door to year-round access to gasoline with higher ethanol blends.”

“A senior White House official said Monday that Trump directed the Environmental Protection Agency to begin rule-making that allows for year-round use of gasoline with 15 percent ethanol or E15. The announcement sets off a review that could make E15 available to consumers as soon as next summer.”

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About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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