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First Read: “According to the Cook Political Report’s David Wasserman, the Dem popular vote advantage is now a full 8 points, 53.1% to 45.1%.”
“Indeed, Dems are getting close to 60 million votes. In 2008, John McCain got 60 million votes; Mitt Romney got 61 million in 2012; and Trump got 63 million in 2016. It’s stunning that Dems got as many House votes as the GOP presidential nominees in 2008/2012/2016.”
First Read: “A few hours into Election Night 2018, it felt like it was happening again — Donald Trump and the GOP were about to defy political gravity… But by 11:00 pm ET that night — and especially in three weeks since the midterm elections, as races have been called and more votes have come in — it was clear that political gravity caught up to Trump. And that might have been one of the more consequential outcomes of the 2018 midterms:
“To be sure, Trump and Republicans turned out their voters, ensuring that the GOP didn’t lose more House seats and control of the U.S. Senate… But that the laws of political gravity applied to Trump in 2018 – and we also saw this play out in Virginia’s gubernatorial race in 2017, in Alabama’s Senate contest in December 2017 and the special PA-18 race in 2018 – provide an important lesson for 2020: Political fundamentals still matter.”
“Over the past decade, attackers motivated by right-wing political ideologies have committed dozens of shootings, bombings and other acts of violence, far more than any other category of domestic extremist,” according to a Washington Post analysis of data on global terrorism.
“While the data show a decades-long drop-off in violence by left-wing groups, violence by white supremacists and other far-right attackers has been on the rise since Barack Obama’s presidency — and has surged since President Trump took office.”
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Lowell Sun: “Sixteen representatives and representatives-elect, led in their opposition by U.S. Rep. Seth Moulton, signed a letter Monday pledging not to support House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi for another term as speaker of the House.”
“Since then, the landscape has changed. One of the letter’s signers publicly changed his mind two days later. U.S. Rep. Marcia Fudge, who seemed for a time the most likely Democrat to challenge for the gavel, announced she would vote for Pelosi, leaving those calling for new leadership with no figurehead. And on Monday, Moulton faced sharp criticism from pro-Pelosi protesters in his own district.”
“As a result, experts and commentators are wondering: where, exactly, is Moulton going with this?”
Politico: “The White House counsel’s office is down to a skeletal staff, potentially leaving them unprepared to deal with a flood of subpoenas for documents and witnesses when Democrats take control of the House. The office has been without a permanent leader since ex-White House senior attorney Don McGahn left the administration in mid-October.”
“His replacement, Pat Cipollone, is caught up in an extended background check that’s prevented him from starting.”
“Amid the leadership tumult, the counsel’s office has shrunk to about 25 lawyers… That’s lower than its recent high point of roughly 35 attorneys and well short of the 40 people that some expect it will need to deal with a reinvigorated Democratic party eager to investigate the president’s tax returns and business dealings in foreign countries, reopen probes into Russian election meddling and explore the behavior of a bevy of Cabinet officials.”
Politico: “A record 102 women were elected in the midterms, a total that includes several moms with young children. The influx is forcing lawmakers to reassess policies to make Capitol Hill more female- and parent-friendly. Renovations are already underway to install nursing stations around the Capitol. And there’s talk among Democratic women about how to best arrange the congressional schedule so that parents can video chat with their kids over dinner, help them with their school work and make it home three days a week.”
Playbook: “It’s Monday, and by next Friday, a chunk of government is slated to shut down. President Trump also wants funding for his border wall by Dec. 7. Seven spending bills need to pass in the next 11 days to avoid a temporary shutdown of big patches of government.”
“Trump has just 39 days left of an all-Republican D.C. He has every incentive to push as hard as he possibly can for as much funding as possible for his border wall. A shutdown wouldn’t even hurt too badly. Department of Homeland Security funding — which expires Dec. 7 — can be continued on an emergency basis if Congress cannot pass a bill. So there is nothing stopping him from a big-time, drag-out fight.”
“Democrats take control of the House in a few weeks, so they have zero incentive to cooperate in passing spending for Trump’s border wall without a big concession. DREAM Act? DACA protections? These could all be on the table. Remember: Trump needs 60 votes in the Senate, so Democratic cooperation is a must.”
Politico: “Today, nearly a year after Gillibrand led the charge in calling for Franken’s resignation, the anger is fresh on the minds of major donors across the country.”
“More than a dozen prominent West Coast, New York and national donors and bundlers — many of them women — said they would never again donate to or fundraise for Gillibrand or would only do so if she ended up as the Democratic presidential nominee.”
“Republicans think Cindy Hyde-Smith will ultimately pull out a win in Mississippi’s special Senate election on Tuesday. But they say the race has tightened — and after what happened in Alabama last year, they’re on edge,” Politico reports.
“A swirl of controversy surrounding the Republican senator — stirred up by her comment about attending a “public hanging” — has given Democrat Mike Espy momentum in the home stretch, officials from both parties say. Hyde-Smith has never trailed in polling, and Democrats acknowledge she’s likely to win, but they argue that her flubs have given Espy a very narrow opening if everything breaks his way.”
“I never said he was the best example of the Christian faith. He defends the faith. And I appreciate that very much.”
— Evangelical leader Franklin Graham, in an interview with Axios, on why he supports President Trump.
“President Trump twice raised to the Iraqi prime minister the idea of repaying America for its wars with Iraqi oil, a highly controversial ask that runs afoul of international norms and logic,” Axios reports.
“Trump appears to have finally given up on this idea, but until now it hasn’t been revealed that as president he’s raised the concept twice with Iraq’s prime minister and brought it up separately in the Situation Room with his national security team.”
“Top national security figures from both parties condemned Trump’s idea, calling it outrageous and unworkable — a violation of international law that would fuel the propaganda of America’s foes.”
Washington Post: “Chief of Staff John Kelly has told others about watching television with Trump and asking the president how much the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff earns. Trump guessed $5 million, according to people who were told the story by Kelly, startling the chief of staff. Kelly responded that he made less than $200,000. The president suggested he get a large raise and noted the number of stars on his uniform.”
“Another Democrat who has threatened to vote on the House floor against Nancy Pelosi for speaker seemed to soften that stance on Sunday, giving the California Democrat the appearance of momentum before a key test vote on Wednesday,” Politico reports.
“Rep. Stephen Lynch (D-MA), one of 16 lawmakers or members-elect who had signed a letter promising to vote against Pelosi on the floor, said on Sunday he would back her over a Republican during the critical Jan. 3 vote.”
“Migrants approaching the U.S. border from Mexico were enveloped with tear gas Sunday after a few tried to breach the fence separating the two countries,” Politico reports.
“U.S. agents shot the gas… Children were screaming and coughing in the mayhem.”
New York Times: “A peaceful march by Central American migrants waiting at the southwestern United States border veered out of control on Sunday afternoon, as hundreds of people tried to evade a Mexican police blockade and run toward a giant border crossing into California.”
New York Times: “The Democrats are already laying out lines of inquiry that could quickly lead not just to Mr. Trump and his White House aides, but also to his immediate family. And Republicans returning to Capitol Hill next year may be forced by the changed political climate to take a harder line toward the Trump family.”
“Likely Democratic targets include not only the president’s personal finances and those of the Trump Organization, but also the actions taken by his sons Donald Jr. and Eric and his son-in-law, Jared Kushner, during the 2016 campaign and its aftermath.”
‘Morning Joe’ co-hosts Mika Brzezinski and Joe Scarborough married Saturday evening in a “secret” ceremony at the National Archives in Washington D.C. “in front of the Constitution, the Declaration of Independence, and the Bill of Rights,” Vanity Fair reports.
“Part of the popularity of the Scarzinski relationship derives from the fact that, despite their prominent roles as hosts of perhaps the most influential news program in American politics, their romance has been handled with militant discretion… This discipline has lent the duo an unexpected celebrity air, rendering them a sort of Branjelina of the political-media in-crowd—a credential more or less certified when Donald Trump offered to have them married at the White House during a visit in 2017. They declined the offer.”
New York Times: “Nearly a dozen members of the House’s incoming class are far from being gawky freshmen, stumbling wide-eyed through the strange corridors of Capitol Hill, but are instead experienced policymakers who have worked in previous presidential administrations — seven of them for former President Barack Obama. Their return to Washington is, in part, a way to undo what they see as the unspooling of the values and legacy of the nation’s 44th president.”
“President Trump is demanding top advisers craft a plan to reduce the country’s ballooning budget deficits, but the president has flummoxed his own aides by repeatedly seeking new spending while ruling out measures needed to address the country’s unbalanced budget,” the Washington Post reports.
“Trump’s deficit-reduction directive came last month, after the White House reported a large increase in the deficit for the previous 12 months. The announcement unnerved Republicans and investors, helping fuel a big sell-off in the stock market. Two days after the deficit report, Trump floated a surprise demand to his Cabinet secretaries, asking them to identify steep cuts in their agencies.”
Taegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.
Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.
Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.
Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.
Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.
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