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The GOP Is a Threat to Our Democracy

December 20, 2016 at 9:44 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

This piece is only available to Political Wire members.

There is no better example than what just happened in North Carolina to illustrate how Republicans are playing by different rules than Democrats.

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New Nonprofit Selling Access to Trump

December 20, 2016 at 8:56 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Center for Public Integrity: “A new Texas nonprofit led by Donald Trump’s grown sons is offering access to the freshly-minted president during inauguration weekend — all in exchange for million-dollar donations to unnamed ‘conservation’ charities… And the donors’ identities may never be known.”

A brochure shows that prospective million-dollar donors to the “Opening Day 2017” event — slated for Jan. 21, the day after inauguration — receive a “private reception and photo opportunity for 16 guests with President Donald J. Trump” and a “multi-day hunting and/or fishing excursion for 4 guests with Donald Trump, Jr. and/or Eric Trump, and team.”

Democrats Were More Divided In the End

December 20, 2016 at 8:52 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

First Read: “In yesterday’s Electoral College tally, it turned out there were seven faithless electors — two Republicans voting for someone else other Donald Trump (John Kasich and Ron Paul), and five Democratic electors voting for someone else other than Hillary Clinton (three for Colin Powell, one for Bernie Sanders, and one for Faith Spotted Eagle). That there were more faithless Bernie Sanders-supporting Democratic electors bucking Hillary Clinton than faithless GOP electors spurning Trump sums up the 2016 contest pretty well. In the very end, despite all of the speculation to the contrary, Democrats were more divided than Republicans.”

“Of course, it’s worth wondering if these faithless Dem electors would have been as faithless if Clinton had won (though two of the Washington state electors had said they weren’t behind Clinton BEFORE the election). But as University of Michigan economist Justin Wolfers observes, these seven faithless electors — there had been just nine combined since 1948 — are a troubling sign for future contests. ‘It could easily be enough to flip a future election,’ he tweets.'”

Rick Klein: “Three more electors tried to go rogue but were replaced before their votes were counted. Thus concludes one of the stranger trips through the strangest College that American democracy can conjure.”


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Can Republicans Get to 60 Senate Seats In 2018?

December 20, 2016 at 8:22 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Stuart Rothenberg: “By any measure, Democrats are on the defensive in the next fight for Senate control. A three-seat Democratic midterm gain, which would give the party a majority, looks virtually impossible given the seats up this cycle.”

“A net change of eight seats would be large by historical standards but not unprecedented. Swings of at least eight Senate seats have occurred in four of the last 17 midterm elections – 1958, 1986, 1994 and 2014 – and in six of the last 34 elections (going back to 1950).”

“The problem for Republicans is that these big Senate swings have always happened against the sitting president’s party. The sole exception, since the direct election of senators, occurred in 1934, when President Franklin Roosevelt’s party gained ten Senate seats. Two years earlier, when Roosevelt won a landslide presidential victory, his party gained a dozen Senate seats.”

Just a Third of Americans Say Russia Influenced Election

December 20, 2016 at 8:18 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new Morning Consult poll finds that just one-third of Americans say they believe Russia influenced the 2016 presidential election, while 44% said they did not think so and a quarter are still unsure.

Whatever Happened to the Trump Apprentice Tapes?

December 20, 2016 at 8:11 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Vanity Fair: “Throughout the year, the tapes were a subject of almost mythical fascination within the media. People involved with The Apprentice had received calls from reporters at the Associated Press, BuzzFeed, Politico, The New York Times, CNN, the Huffington Post, and The Washington Post. Meanwhile, the Clinton campaign would also obsessively try to find the tapes up until Election Day. In fact, one person close to the Clinton campaign told me that he had spoken to someone, on the Sunday before the election, who said he had a damaging clip of Trump…”

“Nevertheless, the Clinton campaign, which had seen Trump survive previous raucous scandals, refused to give up its own search. Two days before the election, one entertainment executive with ties to Clinton contacted someone in the industry who had said he had a copy of a tape depicting Trump that could create problems for the then candidate. Would this person be willing to pass him the footage to give to the Clinton campaign? Since the latest poll numbers indicated it was clear Clinton would win the election—likely in a landslide—this person didn’t want to risk it.”

The Worst Candidate of 2016

December 20, 2016 at 8:00 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Chris Cillizza: “It’s impossible to overstate how big a favorite the former secretary of state was in both her primary fight against Bernie Sanders and the general election matchup against Donald Trump. She was the biggest non-incumbent front-runner for the White House in modern political history.”

“And yet, from the start, it was clear that Clinton’s appeal on paper didn’t match her appeal in the real world of political campaigning. She badly underestimated Sanders’s appeal from the start and then, because of ongoing doubts about her commitment to liberal causes, found it difficult to attack the senator from Vermont. As a result, a primary that was expected to be a coronation turned into a long-lasting problem — exposing the lack of enthusiasm for Clinton, particularly among young voters.”

Quote of the Day

December 19, 2016 at 10:50 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“In the case of the president, he has a broad ability to organize the White House the way he wants to. He also has, frankly, the power of the pardon. It’s a totally open power. He could simply say, ‘Look, I want them to be my advisers. I pardon them if anyone finds them to have behaved against the rules. Period. Technically, under the Constitution, he has that level of authority.”

— Newt Gingrich, quoted by Politico.

The Most Important Lesson from 2016

December 19, 2016 at 10:46 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Seth Masket: “Given the closeness of this election, it’s plausible that any number of things could have made the difference. Had Russia never hacked Democratic National Committee data, had Comey not made his public insinuations about Clinton a few weeks before the election, had the Clinton campaign had better polling data, etc., we’d likely be calling her president-elect today. But it’s hard to know what lesson to draw from that to use in future campaigns. It’s easy to say that you shouldn’t take your lead for granted, but exactly how do we translate that into a specific recommendation for the next campaign?”

“Perhaps the most important lesson is that any major party nominee, no matter how seemingly awful or unpopular, has a shot at winning. This is a lesson not so much for the general election campaigns, but for the parties: Be careful whom you nominate. Pick someone you’d be comfortable seeing in office. You’d be surprised who can lose. And who can win.”

Trump Wins Electoral Vote

December 19, 2016 at 5:30 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

The Associated Press reports that Donald Trump has won more than 270 Electoral College votes to formally become president-elect.

New York Times: “Normally a political footnote, the electoral vote took on unexpected import this winter after Mr. Trump’s upset of Hillary Clinton, who won the popular vote, spawned a determined effort to block his path to the presidency by grass-roots advocates who saw him as unfit for the White House and, to some, a threat to the political system.”

See the the latest electoral vote map.

Most Americans Pessimistic or Uncertain About Trump

December 19, 2016 at 5:28 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll finds 54% of adults saying that they are either uncertain (25%) or pessimistic and worried (29%) about how Trump will perform during his presidency, compared with 45% with either an optimistic and confident view (22%) or a satisfied and hopeful view (23%).

Trump Budget Pick Spoke at John Birch Society Event

December 19, 2016 at 2:33 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Rep. Mick Mulvaney (R-SC), who has been tapped by Donald Trump to run the Office of Management and Budget, “recently accepted a speaking invitation from the notorious John Birch Society, an extreme right-wing group known for peddling outlandish conspiracy theories for more than half a century,” Mother Jones reports.

One Issue May Explain the Entire Trump Administration

December 19, 2016 at 1:37 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

This piece is only available to Political Wire members.

Climate change — which scientists say can only be halted if we stop burning fossil fuels — wasn’t even mentioned in any of the presidential debates but it’s now at the center of our politics.

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Ohio Elector Suddenly Quits

December 19, 2016 at 1:21 pm EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

One of Ohio’s 18 electors resigned just before the scheduled noon vote, decrying “extreme political bullying,” the Cincinnati Enquirer reports.

Why Trump Had an Edge In the Electoral College

December 19, 2016 at 11:49 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Nate Cohn: “Liberals say Mr. Trump’s victory is proof that the Electoral College is biased against big states and undemocratically marginalizes urban and nonwhite voters. Conservatives say the Electoral College serves as a necessary bulwark against big states, preventing California in particular from imposing ‘something like colonial rule over the rest of the nation,’ as the conservative analyst Michael Barone put it. California sided with Mrs. Clinton by a vote margin of four million, or 30 percentage points.”

“Both sides have a point. But in the end, Mr. Trump won for a simple reason: The Electoral College’s (largely) winner-take-all design gives a lot of weight to battleground states. Mr. Trump had an advantage in the traditional battlegrounds because most are whiter and less educated than the country as a whole.”

Trump Voters Will Feel Obamacare Repeal

December 19, 2016 at 11:30 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“When he campaigned for president, Donald Trump made repealing and replacing the Affordable Care Act a signature issue. Polling suggests that such a move would have the biggest impacts on communities that gave Mr. Trump some of his highest levels of support, potentially complicating the politics of a repeal effort,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

“More than 20 million Americans now depend on the ACA, also known as Obamacare, for health insurance. Data from Gallup indicate that a lot of those people live in counties that favored Mr. Trump.”

The Election Was Over Before the Debates

December 19, 2016 at 11:00 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Salena Zito: “I’d estimate based on my reporting that this election was baked before the debates, before the Access Hollywood tapes, before the hacked emails and before anyone took the time to actually notice, listen and understand just how upended the American voter is.”

“Pollsters will likely become apoplectic over my conclusion. That’s OK, they deal with numbers and could likely argue with great big gobs of data that I’m wrong; while I am not in the business of predicting, I am in the business of listening to people. It was there in plain sight for everyone to see if they wanted to; it is clear that they did not and that is a bias towards him and prejudice towards the people that needs to be corrected.”

Republicans Have Tight Control of the House

December 19, 2016 at 10:30 am EST By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

The Cook Polit­ic­al Re­port notes the scope of the GOP’s con­gres­sion­al vic­tor­ies: Only 15 of the 241 House Re­pub­lic­ans won their races by less than a 10-point mar­gin, even though nearly two dozen of them rep­res­en­ted dis­tricts that Hil­lary Clin­ton car­ried.

Overall, House Re­pub­lic­ans won 51% of the na­tion­al vote, and will be rep­res­ent­ing 55% of the seats in the lower cham­ber.

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About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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