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Trump Halts Big Dollar Fundraisers for the GOP

October 25, 2016 at 6:21 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Donald Trump “has stopped holding events for his high-dollar fundraising operation for the rest of the campaign, an unusual move that deals another serious blow to the GOP’s effort to finance its get-out-the-vote operation before Election Day,” the Washington Post reports.

“Trump’s decision effectively turns off one of the main spigots to the Republican National Committee, which collected $40 million through Trump Victory as of Sept. 30. The party has devoted a large share of the funds to pay for its national voter mobilization program to benefit the entire Republican ticket.”

Can Democrats Put More House Seats In Play?

October 25, 2016 at 4:56 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

David Wasserman of the Cook Political Report talks to Chris Riback on Political Wire Conversations about the battle for control of the House of Representatives.

Listen here:

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Special thanks to the Cook Political Report for sponsoring this episode!

Bonus Quote of the Day

October 25, 2016 at 4:42 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“If we had party unity, we couldn’t lose this election to Hillary Clinton… The people are very angry with the leadership of this party, because this is an election that we will win 100 percent if we had support from the top. I think we’re going to win it anyway.”

— Donald Trump, in an interview with Reuters.


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Trump Says Clinton Could Cause World War III

October 25, 2016 at 4:29 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Donald Trump told Reuters that Hillary Clinton’s plan for Syria would “lead to World War Three,” because of the potential for conflict with military forces from nuclear-armed Russia.

Said Trump: “What we should do is focus on ISIS. We should not be focusing on Syria. You’re going to end up in World War Three over Syria if we listen to Hillary Clinton.”

He added: “You’re not fighting Syria any more, you’re fighting Syria, Russia and Iran, all right? Russia is a nuclear country, but a country where the nukes work as opposed to other countries that talk.”

Clinton Leads Trump By 12 Points

October 25, 2016 at 3:25 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new Democracy Corps (D) survey shows Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump, 50% to 38%, with Gary Johnson at 5%.

Key finding: “There is a chance to translate Clinton’s emerging landslide into a wave down ballot. In a simulated contest where the Republican congressional candidate argues they are needed as an independent check on Clinton, the Democrats move into a 9-point lead in the congressional match-up after the Republican is attacked.”

Yes, It’s the Longest Campaign Possible

October 25, 2016 at 2:38 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Washington Post: “To make things more excruciating, Election Day happens to be scheduled on the latest possible day this year. America votes not on the first Tuesday in November, but on the first Tuesday after a Monday in November — i.e., any time between Nov. 2 and Nov. 8. Because November 1 falls on a Tuesday, we have almost an entire extra week of campaigning this election. In fact, it’s the latest election date since George Bush faced off against Michael Dukakis in 1988.”

Jeff Greenfield: “It’s become just about all anybody can say: ‘I can’t wait for this election to be over.’ It also is very likely to become a textbook case of: ‘be careful what you wish for.’ If you think this contest has demonstrated fault lines in our political system, I have news for you: Come January, we may all be standing close to the San Andreas fault of government dysfunction.”

Quote of the Day

October 25, 2016 at 2:19 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“No, I have no interest in Trump TV. I hear it all over the place. I have a tremendous fan base, we have a tremendous base. We have the most incredible people, but I just don’t have any interest in that.”

— Donald Trump, quoted by CNN.

State Poll Roundup: Tuesday

October 25, 2016 at 1:08 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Here are the latest state polls from the presidential race:

Minnesota: Clinton 47%, Trump 39%, Johnson 6% (Mason Dixon)

North Carolina: Clinton 46%, Trump 39%, Johnson 8% (NYT/Siena)

Michigan: Clinton 49%, Trump 41%, Johnson 3% (Mitchell Research)

Arizona: Trump 46%, Clinton 45%, Johnson 1% (Monmouth)

South Dakota: Trump 44%, Clinton 37%, Johnson 7% (Keloland)

Trump’s Biggest Fear Is Losing Status

October 25, 2016 at 1:01 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

New York Times: “The intense ambitions and undisciplined behaviors of Mr. Trump have confounded even those close to him, especially as his presidential campaign comes to a tumultuous end, and he confronts the possibility of the most stinging defeat of his life. But in the more than five hours of conversations — the last extensive biographical interviews Mr. Trump granted before running for president — a powerful driving force emerges: his deep-seated fear of public embarrassment.”

“The recordings reveal a man who is fixated on his own celebrity, anxious about losing his status and contemptuous of those who fall from grace. They capture the visceral pleasure he derives from fighting, his willful lack of interest in history, his reluctance to reflect on his life and his belief that most people do not deserve his respect.”

“In the interviews, Mr. Trump makes clear just how difficult it is for him to imagine — let alone accept — defeat.”

Pro-Clinton Super PAC Sets Fundraising Record

October 25, 2016 at 12:58 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Priorities USA, the top super PAC backing Hillary Clinton, has raised more money than any super PAC in history, scooping up nearly $175 million to finance its efforts, the Washington Post reports.

Rauner Pours $46 Million Into Legislative Races

October 25, 2016 at 12:56 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

With little more than two weeks until Election Day, Illinois Gov. Bruce Rauner’s (R) personal investment in eroding the ranks of legislative Democrats led by House Speaker Michael Madigan (D) has grown to nearly $46 million, the Chicago Tribune reports.

“The massive influx of cash represents the election-year battle lines playing out in Illinois after more than a year of fighting between Rauner, the first-term governor, and Madigan, the nation’s longest-serving speaker, over the future of the state.”

Will Trump Have a Closing Message?

October 25, 2016 at 11:30 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Rick Klein: “If you believe Donald Trump’s version of the race, or something in its vicinity, he’s down but not out. Lacking another debate and trailing Hillary Clinton in resources, he needs something dramatic to change directions – or at least get those on the sidelines suited up on his behalf. His overriding message in recent days has been about the ‘rigged election’ – a rallying cry for anger, though not necessarily voting.”

“He is, of course, attacking the polls he once touted at the top of all his big speeches. He has also, in recent days, threaten to sue his accusers, along with the usual jumps on headlines – Wikileaks revelations, Obamacare rates, etc. The freewheeling style has gotten him this far. But it’s hard to discern a strategy behind Trump’s campaign style now, with two precious weeks still to play with.”

Women Actually Win Just as Often as Men

October 25, 2016 at 11:15 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

New York Times: “When women run for political office, they are just as likely as men to be elected. The main reason they are so underrepresented is that they don’t run in the first place.”

“The so-called ambition gap has a few causes, researchers say. Women are less likely than men to be encouraged by parents, teachers or party leaders to run — yet they are also less likely to run without being prodded. They underestimate their abilities and assume they need to be much more qualified than men to run for the same office.”

Republicans Should Be Very Worried

October 25, 2016 at 10:15 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Charlie Cook: “For sev­er­al weeks many Re­pub­lic­an can­did­ates and op­er­at­ives have been fret­ting that Don­ald Trump’s mis­be­got­ten can­did­acy could cause the bot­tom to fall out for GOP can­did­ates in Sen­ate, House, gubernat­ori­al, state le­gis­lat­ive, and oth­er down-bal­lot races. While their con­cerns were le­git­im­ate, it seemed too soon for the GOP to pan­ic. After all, the Don­ald Trump brand and the Re­pub­lic­an Party brand were cer­tainly not one and the same. Hil­lary Clin­ton’s neg­at­ives were so high that a land­slide seemed un­likely. And in quite a few races the Demo­crat­ic can­did­ates for some of these of­fices were not ex­actly of top shelf.”

“So while pan­ic should not be the GOP’s at­ti­tude right now, ex­treme worry seems ap­pro­pri­ate. The bot­tom has not fallen out for can­did­ates down the bal­lot, but many Re­pub­lic­an can­did­ates are see­ing their num­bers turn to purple or even blue. One vet­er­an Re­pub­lic­an poll­ster said privately on Monday morn­ing that he felt ‘sick to his stom­ach.’ In some cases, can­did­ates are weighed down by their as­so­ci­ation with Trump. In oth­er cases, Trump is caus­ing nor­mally stal­wart Re­pub­lic­an voters to lose heart. They see the GOP pres­id­en­tial nom­in­ee go­ing down in flames and don’t want to be part of a Hil­lary Clin­ton coron­a­tion, so they’re con­tem­plat­ing not vot­ing at all. When people re­port a lack of en­thu­si­asm about vot­ing, that of­ten res­ults in their drop­ping out as “likely voters” in opin­ion polls, caus­ing the op­pos­i­tion can­did­ate’s sup­port levels to bal­loon.”

Toomey Still Won’t Say Who He’s Voting For

October 25, 2016 at 8:47 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Sen. Pat Toomey (R-PA) “again refused to say whether he would vote for Donald Trump, making him the only vulnerable Republican senator to keep his constituents in the dark on where he stands on the issue,” NBC News reports.

Said Toomey: “I don’t think my constituents care that much how one person is going to vote.”

Obamacare Premiums Will Spike Next Year

October 25, 2016 at 8:43 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Associated Press: “Premiums will go up sharply next year under President Barack Obama’s health care law, and many consumers will be down to just one insurer, the administration confirmed Monday. That’s sure to stoke another ‘Obamacare’ controversy days before a presidential election. Before taxpayer-provided subsidies, premiums for a midlevel benchmark plan will increase an average of 25 percent across the 39 states served by the federally run online market, according to a report from the Department of Health and Human Services. Some states will see much bigger jumps, others less.”

However, the Huffington Post reports the law’s financial assistance “will protect millions of lower-income families from these premium increases, and others can find relief by switching to different plans next year to save money.”

A Republican’s Case for Voting for Clinton

October 25, 2016 at 8:17 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

David Frum: “Gestural politics are just ways of evading responsibility. ‘Don’t blame me, I voted for McMullin.’ But choices are judged by their consequences, and the consequences here are stark: If not Hillary, then Trump. If not Trump, then Hillary. Since it can’t be Trump, it must be Hillary. You understand why people might evade that unwelcome reality. But you didn’t get where you are by evading realities. You face them, you meet them, you make the best of them. You’ll hope for the best, but at least you’ll know you did all you could to prevent the worst.”

Senate Democrats Poised to Pick Up 5-7 Seats

October 25, 2016 at 7:53 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Cook Political Report: “History shows that races in the Toss Up column never split down the middle; one party tends to win the lion’s share of them. Since 1998, no party has won less than 67 percent of the seats in Toss Up. While the 2016 election has broken every political science rule and trend, we’d be surprised if this becomes one of them.”

“As such, we are increasing the range of expected Democratic pick ups to five to seven seats. This means that we feel that the prospect that Democrats will have at least 51 seats is greater than the odds of a tied Senate, or of Republicans somehow holding their majority.”

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About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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