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Democrats Use Loophole to Fund House Candidates

October 18, 2016 at 6:09 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“The Democratic Party is directing millions of extra dollars to its House candidates this fall by way of a legal loophole that has helped them bypass the typical limits on coordinated spending between parties and candidates — all while linking some vulnerable Republicans to Donald Trump,” Politico reports.

“Typically, Federal Election Commission regulations limit parties to just $48,100 of spending in direct coordination with most House candidates. But under a decade-old FEC precedent, candidates that word their TV ads a certain way — including references to generic “Democrats” and “Republicans” as well as specific candidates — can split the cost of those ads with their party, even if that means blowing past the normal coordinated spending caps.”

For members: What Will It Take for Democrats to Win the House?

Trump Ally Says It Would ‘Take a Miracle’ to Win

October 18, 2016 at 5:02 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Ed Rollins, the chair of a pro-Donald Trump super PAC, said it will take a miracle for the Republican nominee to win the election, CNN reports.

Said Rollins: “If somehow Trump pulls a miracle comeback here, which would take a miracle at this point, then obviously it’s his party, he can do what he wants with it. If not, I think we begin from ground zero and with lots of different factions and lots of different candidates.”

Extra Bonus Quote of the Day

October 18, 2016 at 3:44 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“I call him the Jewish LBJ.”

— Sen. Al Franken (D-MN), quoted by the Washington Post, on Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY).


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What Will It Take for Democrats to Win the House?

October 18, 2016 at 3:09 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

This piece is only available to Political Wire members.

Democrats currently need to flip 30 seats to retake the House. But as David Wasserman of the Cook Political Report points out, that’s very difficult to do when there are only 37 competitive races — including six already held by Democrats.

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Christie Fades from View In Trump Campaign

October 18, 2016 at 2:29 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Politico: “During the final few weeks of the presidential campaign, as Trump falls further behind in the polls, picks fights with his own party’s leaders and makes unsupported claims about a ‘rigged’ campaign, Christie — one of Trump’s most faithful surrogates since primary season — hasn’t been there to back him up.”

“The governor has not withdrawn his endorsement of Trump… But Christie — who has appeared on camera to defend all manner of Trump controversy over the course of the campaign — pulled out of an Oct. 9 appearance on CNN the day after the Trump hot-mic tape surfaced… The governor was also notably absent from the audience at the presidential debate the next night, despite reports that he helped Trump campaign prepare for it.

Many RNC Officials Agree Election Is Rigged

October 18, 2016 at 2:01 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Interviews with more than two dozen members of the Republican National Committee reveal abiding fears of Democratic voting fraud and widespread belief that at least part of the process or outcome is rigged,” Politico reports.

“Party chairman Reince Priebus has not refuted the notion that the election is rigged; the RNC declined requests for comment.”

Bonus Quote of the Day

October 18, 2016 at 1:29 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“You start whining before the game’s even over? If, whenever things are going bad for you and you lose, you start blaming somebody else? You don’t have what it takes to do this job.”

— President Obama, quoted by BuzzFeed, on Donald Trump’s accusations that the election is rigged.

State Poll Roundup: Tuesday

October 18, 2016 at 1:12 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Here are the latest state polls from the presidential race:

Nevada: Clinton 47%, Trump 40%, Johnson 7% (Monmouth)

Wisconsin: Clinton 47%, Trump 39%, Johnson 1% (St. Norbert)

Texas: Trump 41%, Clinton 38%, Johnson 4% (University of Houston)

LePage Says No Elections Are Legitimate

October 18, 2016 at 1:02 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Maine Gov. Paul LePage (R) claimed that elections in his state and in the United States as a whole couldn’t be considered legitimate until voter ID laws are passed, CNN reports.

Said LePage: “No. I am not confident we’re going to have a clean election in Maine and I’ll tell you why. The left, the Democratic party, insists on not having IDs. And will people from the cemetery be voting? Yes. All around the country. The media and the Democratic party want everybody to vote whether they’re citizens or not.”

Schilling Says He’ll Challenge Warren In 2018

October 18, 2016 at 12:59 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Former Boston Red Sox pitcher Curt Schilling told WPRO that that he’s planning to run against Sen. Elizabeth Warren in 2018.

Said Schilling: “I’ve made my decision. I’m going to run. But I haven’t talked to Shonda, my wife. And ultimately it’s going to come down to how her and I feel this would affect our marriage and our kids.”

Clinton Holds Clear Lead In Battleground States

October 18, 2016 at 12:57 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

A new Washington Post/SurveyMonkey poll in 15 battleground states shows Hillary Clinton holds a decisive advantage over Donald Trump, leading in enough states to put her comfortably over the 270 majority needed to win the presidential election in November.

Of those states surveyed, Trump leads in Nevada and Iowa. Clinton leads in New Hampshire, Virginia, Michigan, New Mexico, Colorado, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Georgia.

The only remaining toss ups are Arizona, Florida, Ohio and Texas.

GOP Polling Shows Senate Candidates Barely Ahead

October 18, 2016 at 12:51 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

National Journal: “Of the sev­en most com­pet­it­ive Sen­ate races, Re­pub­lic­ans are cling­ing to leads in six (Pennsylvania, Mis­souri, New Hamp­shire, Flor­ida, In­di­ana and North Car­o­lina), and barely trail­ing in a sev­enth (Nevada).”

“The in­tern­al data, shared with Na­tion­al Journ­al by a seni­or Re­pub­lic­an op­er­at­ive, show six Re­pub­lic­an can­did­ates hold­ing nar­row 1-3 point leads against their Demo­crat­ic chal­lengers, with a sev­enth can­did­ate trail­ing by two points. Dif­fer­ent races are trend­ing in dif­fer­ent dir­ec­tions: Re­pub­lic­an can­did­ates have mo­mentum but stat­ist­ic­ally in­sig­ni­fic­ant leads in In­di­ana and North Car­o­lina, while GOP can­did­ates in Mis­souri and Nevada have lost ground in the last few weeks but still re­main in con­ten­tion.”

Fro members: The Senate Races Most Impacted by Ticket Splitting

Trump’s Damage to the Republican Party Has Just Begun

October 18, 2016 at 10:44 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Rick Klein: “The damage Donald Trump is doing to the Republican Party – assuming polls hold and he loses big, perhaps taking the Senate down with him – can’t be fully measured Nov. 8. (And that has nothing to do with claims of a ‘rigged election.’) Just three weeks out, Trump is somehow finding new battles to fight with his fellow Republicans, including those whose endorsements of him still stand.”

“Trump on Monday put House Speaker Paul Ryan in his crosshairs, telling ABC’s Tom Llamas that Ryan may not want him to even win: ‘Maybe he wants to run in four years, or maybe he doesn’t know how to win.’ That sentiment virtually assures a post-election for Ryan, who at best will have a diminished majority to try to lead in the next Congress, amid suspicions of his own motives and true agenda. Should Trump lose, the potential justifications for his backers to offer are multiplying daily.”

“Sen. Marco Rubio used his first Senate debate to describe the choice between Trump and Hillary Clinton as ‘horrifying’ and called on Trump to stop saying the election is rigged. That plea will go unheard, as will pleas that Trump limit his shots at fellow GOPers over the final stretch.”

Trump’s Claims of Rigged Election Could Hurt Him

October 18, 2016 at 10:10 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Donald Trump’s unsubstantiated claim that the election is rigged against him because of a corrupt political system may have the effect of lowering turnout among his own supporters,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

“Political science research into the topic suggests that both the perception of corruption as well as negative messages about political empowerment may limit voters’ desire to participate in the political process.”

Quote of the Day

October 18, 2016 at 9:07 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“This election is not rigged.”

— Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL), quoted by CNN.

The Trump-Ryan Fight Will Continue After the Election

October 18, 2016 at 9:05 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Playbook: “There’s been a lot of chatter over the last few days about whether Ryan did the right thing by speaking out against Trump. Why is he always the scold, people have asked? His handling of Trump will be dissected plenty over the next few months. Ryan has an incredibly complicated job and has to balance the needs of 245 other Republicans, many of whom wanted cover to break with Trump. But there’s no question he’s now bearing the brunt of the decision.”

“We’re not going to play the can-he-win-the-speakership-again game. There are far too many variables at play, like a) how much Trump loses by and b) what the margin is in the House. But Trump and his allies are signaling a long fight against Ryan. Put it all together, and you come up with a pretty simple question: Why would Ryan want to become speaker again?”

Trump Has No Path to Victory

October 18, 2016 at 8:07 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Stuart Rothenberg: “It would be a mistake to call Trump’s current path to an electoral college victory narrow. It is nonexistent. Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, once part of the Trump scenario, have never been ‘in play,’ and he is not competitive in 2012 states Obama won only narrowly, such as Virginia and Colorado. Trump is more likely to lose North Carolina than win it, which would put him under 200 electoral votes.”

“Frankly, the writing has been on the wall for months about this race. You simply needed to look at the candidates, their campaign teams, the map and the voters.”

The Senate Races Most Impacted by Ticket Splitting

October 18, 2016 at 7:56 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

This piece is only available to Political Wire members.

With exactly three weeks to go until Election Day, many Republican strategists are increasingly convinced the presidential election is over, and they are trying to find ways to keep their Senate candidates from getting tossed out in a possible Hillary Clinton wave.

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About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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