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Early Voting Limits Trump’s Time for Comeback

August 16, 2016 at 9:10 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

New York Times: “Voting actually starts in less than six weeks, on Sept. 23 in Minnesota and South Dakota, the first of some 35 states and the District of Columbia that allow people to cast ballots at polling sites or by email before Nov. 8. Iowa is expected to have ballots ready by the end of September, as are Illinois and two other states.”

“The electoral battlegrounds of Arizona and Ohio are to begin voting on Oct. 12, nearly four weeks before Election Day. And North Carolina and Florida will be underway before Halloween.”

“Early voting has become a critical, even decisive factor in presidential elections: President Obama was sufficiently ahead in the early vote in Iowa and Nevada in 2012 that his campaign shifted resources from those states to others, according to former advisers, who also credited enthusiastic early voting in 2008 for his victory in North Carolina and elsewhere.”

Bonus Quote of the Day

August 16, 2016 at 9:00 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“This is a person who has lied repeatedly. I mean, she lies about lying, and now she lies about having lied about lying.”

— Newt Gingrich, quoted by The Hill, on Hillary Clinton.

Why Trump Is Bombing With Young Voters

August 16, 2016 at 6:45 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Michael Gerson: “I would venture that Trump’s failure among the young has something to do with his assault on the idea of tolerance, particularly racial and religious tolerance. Younger voters are less likely than other age groups to regard racially inclusive language as “politically correct.” They are less likely to believe in “reverse discrimination” and to embrace anti-immigrant attitudes. And, according to the USA Today/Rock the Vote survey, they were not impressed by the GOP nominee’s convention speech. By more than 2 to 1, younger voters said it made Trump seem less human and accessible.”

“While Clinton has an ethics problem, Trump has a humanity problem. His combativeness and lack of political polish could be advantages among younger voters. But these are tied to a discrediting lack of empathy.”


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Priebus Mulls Another Term as RNC Chairman

August 16, 2016 at 6:30 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Politico: “It’s a move that would come as a surprise to many. The 44-year-old Priebus, who was first elected in 2011, had led many to believe he would be finished with the high-profile job following a rambunctious campaign season — one that at times has resulted in fierce criticism of Priebus and the committee he leads. Already, several would-be successors, including former Silicon Valley executive Carly Fiorina, have begun de facto campaigns for the chairmanship.”

“But in recent weeks, Priebus has begun telling friends and allies that he’s seriously considering running for reelection.”

Quote of the Day

August 16, 2016 at 6:30 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

“Frankly I’m tired of talking about her opponent. I don’t have to make the case against her opponent because every time he talks, he makes the case against his own candidacy.”

— President Obama, quoted by The Hill.

Biden Will Focus Efforts on Three States

August 16, 2016 at 4:30 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Politico: “Biden’s made his mission for the election delivering the Senate back to Democrats, and he’s already made clear three seats that he’s prioritized, and where the party clearly needs help: for Ted Strickland in Ohio, for Patrick Murphy in Florida and for Katie McGinty in Pennsylvania.”

“Conveniently, those happen to be the three states where Clinton needs to block Trump on the electoral map, and where the Republican nominee’s message seems to be resonating in some of the most dangerous ways for the Clinton campaign.”

The Making of a Liberal Lion

August 16, 2016 at 2:17 am EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Just published: Bobby Kennedy: The Making of a Liberal Icon by Larry Tye.

New York Times: “No one has captured Kennedy’s 1968 race with as much visceral immediacy as Thurston Clarke did in “The Last Campaign” (2008), but Larry Tye’s absorbing new biography, “Bobby Kennedy,” does a compelling job of showing how a tough-guy counsel to the red-baiting, demagogic Senator Joseph McCarthy in the 1950s became, in the next decade, “a liberal icon” beloved for his dedication to the poor and disenfranchised.”

Evidence Contradicts Bayh’s Claim of Residence

August 15, 2016 at 10:43 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Evan Bayh (D) told WISH-TV that he “never left” Indiana when he was asked if he would move back to Indiana now that he is running to win back his old Senate seat.

But a CNN “review of public records since Bayh left office in 2011 shows the Democrat repeatedly listed his two multi-million dollar homes in Washington as his main places of residence — not the $53,000 condo he owns in Indianapolis.”

Trump Calls for New War on Terror

August 15, 2016 at 10:37 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Donald Trump “invoked comparisons to the Cold War era in arguing that the United States must wage an unrelenting ideological fight if it is to defeat the Islamic State. He said he would temporarily suspend immigration from ‘the most dangerous and volatile regions of the world’ and judge allies solely on their participation in America’s mission to root out Islamic terrorism,” the New York Times reports.

Trump, who has pledged to build a wall along the border with Mexico, also said he would call for “extreme vetting” of immigrants that would include requiring them to respond to a questionnaire with an “ideological test.”

Washington Post: “In a grab bag of promises to battle the Islamic State organization together with Russia and anyone else who wants to join the fight, the Republican nominee underlined the need to improve intelligence and shut down militant propaganda, recruiting and financing.”

State Poll Roundup: Monday

August 15, 2016 at 10:28 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Here are the latest polls in the presidential race:

Indiana: Clinton 44%, Trump 44% (Expedition)

Pennsylvania AG Convicted on Perjury, Obstruction

August 15, 2016 at 10:26 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Pennsylvania Attorney General Kathleen Kane (D) “was convicted Monday of perjury, obstruction and other crimes after squandering her once bright political future on an illegal vendetta against an enemy,” the Philadelphia Inquirer reports.

“Four years after Kane’s election in a landslide as the first Democrat and first woman elected attorney general, a jury of six men and six women found her guilty of all charges: two counts of perjury and seven misdemeanor counts of abusing the powers of her office.”

Biden Takes Down Trump

August 15, 2016 at 9:29 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

New York Times: “For Mr. Biden, after nearly eight years in the nation’s chief supporting role, the appearance hinted at the niche he sees for himself as Election Day nears: a figure who can argue, plainly and personally, that Mr. Trump has already imperiled the nation he aspires to lead.”

“It was also a glimpse at the campaign that wasn’t — the earned folksiness, the willingness to test audience stamina, the years of practice at appearing unpracticed — laying bare the strengths and tics of a would-be candidate who decided last year against challenging the woman he spent Monday embracing.”

Is It Over?

August 15, 2016 at 4:00 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Nate Cohn: “The Upshot’s model gives Mrs. Clinton an 88 percent chance of winning. It’s about the same probability of hitting a field goal from the 20-yard line.”

“That’s a pretty good way to think about it. If Mrs. Clinton ultimately wins, we will probably look back and say she had more or less already won it by this point. If she loses, these next two months will be talked about for decades.”

“The game-winning field-goal analogy has one big weakness: She may win this by a lot more than a field goal.”

Trump Revealed

August 15, 2016 at 3:00 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Coming next week: Trump Revealed: An American Journey of Ambition, Ego, Money, and Power by Michael Kranish and Marc Fisher.

Has Trump Written Off Black Voters?

August 15, 2016 at 2:00 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

New York Times: “Mr. Trump may not have purposefully snubbed black neighborhoods — he rarely plunges into any community to tour businesses, sample local cuisine or spontaneously engage in the handshake and back-patting rituals of everyday campaigning. His preferred style of politicking consists almost entirely of addressing arena-size rallies, conducting media interviews and receiving visitors in private at events or at his Manhattan skyscraper.”

“But the 70-year-old white self-described billionaire has not just walled himself off from African-American voters where they live. He has also turned down repeated invitations to address gatherings of black leaders, ignored African-American conservatives in states he needs to win and made numerous inflammatory comments about minorities.”

The Debates Will Be a Big Moment

August 15, 2016 at 1:30 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Daily Beast: “Barring some unforeseen event, such as a serious terrorist attack at home, the decisive event that will determine who wins the 2016 presidential election is almost certainly going to be the series of debates between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. beginning on September 26 at New York’s Hofstra University.”

“Since 1960, when John F. Kennedy and Richard Nixon first met in Chicago, no other single moment has been more important in affecting the outcome of our elections. For good or ill, television’s laser-like eye reveals the candidates’ fitness for the presidency—their knowledge of domestic and foreign policy, their ability to answer reporters’ probing questions, their coolness under fire, the image they project—all tell voters which person should occupy the Oval Office.”

What Clinton Should Worry About

August 15, 2016 at 1:00 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

Nate Silver: “At some point, complacency could become an issue, although it’s probably too early to worry about that. In the nearer term, I’d be worried that the race has been so volatile. Sure, things look good now. But conditions in May, and then again in July, produced a close race. Is there anything inherently preventing those conditions from arising again? I suppose I’d wonder about what Wikileaks has up its sleeve and what sort of geopolitical events could work in Trump’s favor.”

Quoting Trump Can Be a Challenge

August 15, 2016 at 12:30 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard Leave a Comment

CNBC: “His unscripted speaking style, with its spasmodic, self-interrupting sentence structure, has increasingly come to overwhelm the human brains and tape recorders attempting to quote him.”

“Trump is, simply put, a transcriptionist’s worst nightmare: severely unintelligible, and yet, incredibly important to understand.”

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About Political Wire

goddard-bw-snapshotTaegan Goddard is the founder of Political Wire, one of the earliest and most influential political web sites. He also runs Political Job Hunt, Electoral Vote Map and the Political Dictionary.

Goddard spent more than a decade as managing director and chief operating officer of a prominent investment firm in New York City. Previously, he was a policy adviser to a U.S. Senator and Governor.

Goddard is also co-author of You Won - Now What? (Scribner, 1998), a political management book hailed by prominent journalists and politicians from both parties. In addition, Goddard's essays on politics and public policy have appeared in dozens of newspapers across the country.

Goddard earned degrees from Vassar College and Harvard University. He lives in New York with his wife and three sons.

Goddard is the owner of Goddard Media LLC.

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